MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 21st - MIA @ ATL
Miami at Atlanta – 7:20 PM ET
Smith has made 20 starts this season, posting a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that really benefits from making half of his starts in Miami. While Atlanta’s ballpark isn’t exactly home run-friendly, we are expecting hot and humid weather tonight. The Braves’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .330 with an average ISO of .233 against southpaws. Smith has already given up 21 home runs this season, which is enough for me to fade him tonight.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Smith in all formats.
Teheran has made 26 starts this season, posting a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 11%. He needs a very specific matchup to warrant consideration in DFS and he draws that very specific matchup tonight against the Marlins. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .275 with an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching. He has plenty of experience against Miami’s active roster, holding them to a .303 wOBA with only 11 extra-base hits in 224 plate appearances.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll likely take the stars and scrubs route at pitcher tonight, but Teheran is a nice option in the mid-range.
Batter Grind Down
The Marlins are playing on the road, they have one of the worst offenses in baseball, and they have a mediocre matchup at best. Julio Teheran gives up a lot of walks, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. I don’t see a reason to play anyone from Miami in a slate this size.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Caleb Smith is a very good pitcher, but he gives up a lot of home runs. That’s what is going to happen when you are an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a high hard contact rate. He has allowed 21 home runs in 20 starts this season and the Braves’ lineup is loaded with firepower. I’m not looking to stack Atlanta against a high-strikeout pitcher, but we can capture their upside through one-offs and mini stacks. Each of the first five batters in this projected lineup has an ISO over .200 against southpaws — Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, and Adam Duvall.
Stackability – YELLOW