MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 21st - MIL @ STL
Milwaukee at St. Louis – 7:45 PM ET
Houser has surpassed expectations this season, posting a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 55%. He continues to be underpriced on DraftKings ($5,200) and he stands out as a strong SP2 in all formats. He gets to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he is facing the Cardinals, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .307 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Houser might be the best pivot away from Montgomery tonight for tournaments.
Wainwright feels a little overpriced on DraftKings, but he has some appeal as a tournament play on FanDuel. In 23 starts this season, he owns a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 49%. He’s been solid at home over the last few years and he has been tough on right-handed hitters. For me, his fantasy appeal hinges on what the Brewers’ lineup looks like. If they end up with five or six lefties in their lineup, I will look elsewhere.
Quick Breakdown: If Wainwright has the platoon advantage tonight, you can look his way in tournaments on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
A matchup against Adam Wainwright is easy to break down. He has held righties to a .294 xwOBA with a 49% ground ball rate and a 24% strikeout rate. Against lefties, he has allowed a .356 xwOBA, a .217 ISO, and a 1.59 HR/9. After two quiet games from the Brewers’ offense in a row, they should fly under the radar in terms of ownership. Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal (.342 xwOBA), Christian Yelich (.435 xwOBA), and Mike Moustakas (.338 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all have good numbers against right-handed pitching. Grisham continues to be a free square on DraftKings at a price of only $2,600.
Stackability – YELLOW
The Cardinals have struggled against right-handed pitching this season and draw a difficult matchup against Adrian Houser. On the season, he owns a 25% strikeout rate and a 55% ground ball rate. Furthermore, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA. His 68% ground ball rate against righties takes most of the Cardinals’ hitters out of consideration and I don’t feel great about targeting Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman, or Matt Carpenter in an 11-game slate.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE