MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 21st - NYY @ OAK
NY Yankees at Oakland – 10:07 PM ET
Happ is essentially the left-handed version of Rick Porcello, although the timeline is a little different. Porcello had a career season a few years back, but is now struggling mightily. The same goes for Happ. He was terrific in 2018, but has really struggled to sustain that a year later. In 24 starts, he has a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He’s an easy fade in a road start against the A’s, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .344 and an average ISO of .234 against southpaws.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Happ in all formats.
Big props to Homer Bailey for his start against the Yankees last night, but I won’t be going back to the A’s starting rotation tonight. Fiers has managed to keep his ERA low this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest some serious regression moving forward. He owns a 5.23 SIERA and he’s a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits. He’ll have his hands full tonight against the Yankees, whose lineup is loaded with right-handed power.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fiers in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
I’m not particularly interested in a full Yankees stack, but will be targeting this offense heavily through one-offs and mini stacks. Mike Fiers is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits. On the season, he has allowed a .341 xwOBA and a 1.63 HR/9 to batters from the right side and those numbers were even worse in 2018. DJ LeMahieu (.362 xwOBA), Aaron Judge (.378 xwOBA), Gio Urshela (.390 xwOBA), and Gary Sanchez (.381 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all mash right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW
I know I stopped doing the betting section of the Grind Down, but I love the over for this game. We have two hittable, fly-ball pitchers and two very good offenses squaring off in Oakland. J.A. Happ has allowed a .344 xwOBA and a .237 ISO to batters from the right side of the plate. Marcus Semien (.305 xwOBA), Matt Chapman (.367 xwOBA), Mark Canha (.351 xwOBA), Khris Davis (.348 xwOBA), and Chad Pinder (.351 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and have good power against southpaws.
Stackability – YELLOW