MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 21st - SFG @ CHC
San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET
Rodriguez has been an easy fade most of the season and that will continue tonight against the Cubs. He has a strikeout rate of only 15% and he’s one of the largest underdogs of the slate. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average ISO of .189 against right-handed pitching. Even with the wind blowing in from center, Rodriguez offers more risk than upside.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez in all formats.
It’s to the point where we can throw out the first few months of Darvish’s season. In the second half of the season, he owns a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 36% and a walk rate of 1%. Let me say that one more time — in his last 42 innings, Darvish has a k-rate of 36% with a walk rate of 1%. He’s not priced like an ace and he gets to face the Giants at home with the wind blowing in from center field. The projected lineup for San Francisco has an average xwOBA of .305 with an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Given the discount we get (both price and ownership) from Verlander and Buehler, I’m fine looking to Darvish as an SP1 in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
As mentioned above, I’m throwing out the first few months of the season for Yu Darvish. Over the last six starts, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. To make matters worse, the Giants are facing him on the road with a helping wind blowing in from center field. I know that Darvish has struggled with right-handed power on the season overall, but that hasn’t been the case recently.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
The Cubs draw an exploitable matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, but tonight is a completely different animal than last night was. We had a helping wind blowing out yesterday and we have a significant wind blowing in from center tonight. It’s worth noting that Rodriguez has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters this season, but I won’t be going out of my way to load up on the Cubs. Nick Castellanos (.329 xwOBA), Kris Bryant (.334 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.403 xwOBA), and Javier Baez (.332 xwOBA) are all viable tournament plays.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE