MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 21st - SFG @ CHC

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Rodriguez has been an easy fade most of the season and that will continue tonight against the Cubs. He has a strikeout rate of only 15% and he’s one of the largest underdogs of the slate. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average ISO of .189 against right-handed pitching. Even with the wind blowing in from center, Rodriguez offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez in all formats.

It’s to the point where we can throw out the first few months of Darvish’s season. In the second half of the season, he owns a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 36% and a walk rate of 1%. Let me say that one more time — in his last 42 innings, Darvish has a k-rate of 36% with a walk rate of 1%. He’s not priced like an ace and he gets to face the Giants at home with the wind blowing in from center field. The projected lineup for San Francisco has an average xwOBA of .305 with an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given the discount we get (both price and ownership) from Verlander and Buehler, I’m fine looking to Darvish as an SP1 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

As mentioned above, I’m throwing out the first few months of the season for Yu Darvish. Over the last six starts, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. To make matters worse, the Giants are facing him on the road with a helping wind blowing in from center field. I know that Darvish has struggled with right-handed power on the season overall, but that hasn’t been the case recently.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

The Cubs draw an exploitable matchup against Dereck Rodriguez, but tonight is a completely different animal than last night was. We had a helping wind blowing out yesterday and we have a significant wind blowing in from center tonight. It’s worth noting that Rodriguez has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters this season, but I won’t be going out of my way to load up on the Cubs. Nick Castellanos (.329 xwOBA), Kris Bryant (.334 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.403 xwOBA), and Javier Baez (.332 xwOBA) are all viable tournament plays.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysNick Castellanos (GPP), Kris Bryant (GPP), Anthony Rizzo (GPP), Javier Baez (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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