MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 17th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
NY Mets at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
Vargas is a pitcher that I expect to regress in the second half of the season. His SIERA is significantly higher than his ERA and we have many years of data that suggests he’s not a good major league pitcher. He has below-average command and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. To make matters worse, he’s facing a Twins’ lineup that owns an average xwOBA of .379 and an average ISO of .252 against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: I will continue to avoid Vargas in all formats. His eventual blowup will be worth the wait.
Perez got off to a hot start this season, but his numbers have really trailed off over the last month. His average fastball velocity and swinging strike rate are both down, which has led to a lower strikeout rate and a higher SIERA. The Mets are far from an ideal matchup, as their projected lineup owns an average xwOBA of .321 and an average ISO of .188 against left-handed pitching. Pitching options are limited in the early slate, but there are better plays for cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perez in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
If you look at his numbers as a whole, Martin Perez looks like a difficult matchup. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a .130 ISO this season. His recent form has been subpar and he’s no longer generating strikeouts at a high rate. The Mets see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Minnesota and they get to use the DH in this series. Jeff McNeil (.348 xwOBA), J.D. Davis (.410 xwOBA), Pete Alonso (.440 xwOBA), and Wilson Ramos (.380 xwOBA) all have tremendous numbers against southpaws.
Stackability – YELLOW
Jason Vargas has slowly started to unravel over his last couple of starts and I’m expecting more of that moving forward. He has allowed a .328 xwOBA to righties and a .222 ISO to lefties this season. He has a low strikeout rate and he allows a lot of hard contact. The Twins should be licking their chops, as their lineup is loaded with firepower on both sides of the plate. Jorge Polanco (.332 xwOBA), Marwin Gonzalez (.393 xwOBA), Nelson Cruz (.449 xwOBA), Eddie Rosario (.354 xwOBA), and C.J. Cron (.434 xwOBA) are all viable in this matchup.
Stackability – GREEN