MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Oakland at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET
There are four early games on the schedule today, but for some odd reason FanDuel decided to split it up into smaller two-game slates. DraftKings has the four early games features in their early slate. Anderson has made 13 starts this season, posting a 5.37 SIERA with a with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He’s typically not a pitcher that we would look at for DFS, but this is a slate where we want to pay up for hitters. Anderson’s strikeout potential is boosted by a matchup against the Rays, who have the highest k-rate against lefties this season.
Quick Breakdown: I don’t feel great about the play, but Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers on the DraftKings early slate.
Chirinos isn’t as talented as his 2.87 ERA would lead you to believe, but there is nothing wrong with a 4.11 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 21%. He has good control and he’s very good at limited hard contact. On the FanDuel very early slate, he’s easily the top pitching option. At a price of $10,400 on DraftKings, he’s a tough sell in a slate that features Coors Field. Even if he manages to score 20 fantasy points, that likely won’t be enough in the context of this slate. As for his matchup, the A’s lineup has a combined xwOBA of .331 with a strikeout rate of 22% against righties.
Quick Breakdown: Chirinos is an elite play on FanDuel and an easy fade on DraftKings.
Batter Grind Down
The A’s are really cheap today on DraftKings, but if we are saving at pitcher then we don’t really need to save with our hitters. If you stack the A’s, then you’ll have enough to pay up for… Yonny Chirinos? Obviously, that strategy is not going to end well. I don’t have interest in Chirinos on DraftKings, but I don’t have a ton of interest in the A’s offense outside of a couple of one-offs. Matt Olson (.375 xwOBA) has the splits in his favor, while Khris Davis (.333) feels a thousand dollars too cheap. With Chirinos being the top pitcher on FanDuel, the A’s are an easy fade on that site.
Stackability – ORANGE
As noted above, the Rays have the highest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching. However, they are facing Brett Anderson, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher. Something has to give here. Even though I like Anderson from a point-per-dollar standpoint, the Rays are still intriguing. He has allowed a .335+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. His biggest weapon is his ground ball rate, so we want to focus our attention on high fly-ball hitters in Tampa’s offense. Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, and Travis d’Arnuad have the highest fly-ball rates against southpaws this season.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE