MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th - MIL @ HOU
Milwaukee at Houston – 8:10 PM ET
It seems like Woodruff is my favorite SP2 every time he takes the mound. Despite posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% this season, he is still priced like a below-average pitcher on DraftKings. While I give a slight edge to Mikolas as my favorite SP2 of tonight’s slate, Woodruff isn’t far behind. The Astros are not a great matchup by any means, but they are still missing a few of their best hitters and he gets to face them in a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: This is a price and talent play more than a matchup play. Woodruff is just too cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.
Verlander is the top pitching option of the slate and it’s not very close. I do like Berrios as a pivot in tournaments, but it’s hard to make a case against locking in Verlander. He owns a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 5%. The Brewers have plenty of firepower in their lineup, but they also strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Verlander is the top pitcher of the slate and an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Even if I end up fading Justin Verlander (which is highly unlikely), I won’t be doubling down on that fade by targeting the Brewers’ offense. The fade would be for Berrios in hopes that he can outscore Verlander. The Brewers have a talented offense, but I don’t target hitters against elite pitchers. Verlander has an elite k-rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Yordan Alvarez has homered in each of his first two major league games and it feels good that he’s been a recommended play in the Grind Down in both of those outings. You can certainly ride the hot hand here, as Brandon Woodruff has given up a .321 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to lefties this season. He’s really the only Astros’ hitter that I will be targeting here, as there are more exploitable matchups to attack in this slate.
Elite Plays – Yordan Alvarez (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Yordan Alvarez (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE