MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th - MIL @ HOU

Milwaukee at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

It seems like Woodruff is my favorite SP2 every time he takes the mound. Despite posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% this season, he is still priced like a below-average pitcher on DraftKings. While I give a slight edge to Mikolas as my favorite SP2 of tonight’s slate, Woodruff isn’t far behind. The Astros are not a great matchup by any means, but they are still missing a few of their best hitters and he gets to face them in a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: This is a price and talent play more than a matchup play. Woodruff is just too cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Verlander is the top pitching option of the slate and it’s not very close. I do like Berrios as a pivot in tournaments, but it’s hard to make a case against locking in Verlander. He owns a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 5%. The Brewers have plenty of firepower in their lineup, but they also strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is the top pitcher of the slate and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Even if I end up fading Justin Verlander (which is highly unlikely), I won’t be doubling down on that fade by targeting the Brewers’ offense. The fade would be for Berrios in hopes that he can outscore Verlander. The Brewers have a talented offense, but I don’t target hitters against elite pitchers. Verlander has an elite k-rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


Yordan Alvarez has homered in each of his first two major league games and it feels good that he’s been a recommended play in the Grind Down in both of those outings. You can certainly ride the hot hand here, as Brandon Woodruff has given up a .321 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to lefties this season. He’s really the only Astros’ hitter that I will be targeting here, as there are more exploitable matchups to attack in this slate.

Elite PlaysYordan Alvarez (GPP)

Secondary PlaysYordan Alvarez (Cash)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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