MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th - PIT @ ATL
Pittsburgh at Atlanta – 7:20 PM ET
Keller’s advanced numbers looked good in his first major league start, but he gave up six runs in only four innings of work against the Reds. He now has to pitch on the road against a red-hot Braves’ offense in what is expected to be another high-scoring game in Atlanta. Keller is a top prospect and a pitcher that we should keep an eye on moving forward, but I will continue to take a wait and see approach.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Keller in all formats.
Soroka is basically the same price as Justin Verlander tonight, give or take a few hundred bucks on each site. Other than a discount in ownership, I don’t see how you can make the argument to play Soroka over Verlander. His ERA (1.38) is nice and shiny, but his strikeout rate (22%) is mediocre and he’s facing a Pirates’ offense that doesn’t strikeout very often. In fact, their projected lineup has an average k-rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Soroka isn’t a bad play, but I much prefer Verlander at a similar price point.
Batter Grind Down
Even though I will be fading Mike Soroka, he’s not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. He has an average strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. The Pirates can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
We only have a one-game sample size with Mitch Keller, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to break down his splits. At the Triple-A level, he had an elite strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a slightly below-average ground ball rate. If we are targeting the Braves tonight, it’s due to their talent and the fact that they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career start. You can never go wrong targeting Freddie Freeman or Nick Markakis as one-offs and I don’t mind the idea of a full stack. This offense continues to hit home runs in bunches.
Stackability – GREEN