MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th - TEX @ BOS
Texas at Boston – 4:05 PM ET
Lynn doesn’t get the credit that he deserves. In 13 starts this season, he owns a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. The most impressive part is that most of his starts have come in hitter-friendly ballparks. While his numbers are encouraging, he’s a tough sell in a road start against the Red Sox. Boston has struggled a bit against lefties this season, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .353 with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Lynn has pitched well this season, but I can’t bring myself to play him against the Red Sox.
Porcello has made 13 starts this season, posting a 4.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 7%. His numbers are down across the board when you compare them to last season and those were down across the board compared to the year before. It’s safe to say he is trending in the wrong direction. He’s listed as a favorite at home against a strikeout-happy Rangers’ offense, but I still see him as a fade in all formats. The projected lineup for Texas has an average ISO over .200 against righties.
Quick Breakdown: Porcello isn’t the worst option of the slate, but my favorite three pitchers are Anderson, Plesac, and Hamels.
Batter Grind Down
Rick Porcello has a low strikeout rate, which is always a boost for the Rangers’ high-strikeout offense. This ballpark plays up right-handed power, but I have more interest in the lefties. On the season, Porcello has held righties to a .307 xwOBA, while allowing a .335 xwOBA to lefties. The issue that I have with Texas is that they are priced up across the industry. If deciding between the two, I would much rather load up on the Cubs. With that said, Shin-Soo Choo, Danny Santana, Nomar Mazara, and Asdrubal Cabrera all bat from the left side and all have good power numbers against righties.
Stackability – YELLOW
I’m not a big fan of Lance Lynn facing the Red Sox, but I’m not a big fan of the Red Sox offense going up against Lynn. It’s hard to avoid both sides of a matchup in a slate this small, but I think we can make it work. Lynn has a 25% strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers all have great numbers against righties, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – YELLOW