MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 12th - TOR @ BAL
Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
We start tonight’s main slate with a game that should provide fireworks left and right. Jackson currently boasts an ERA of 11.90 with a strikeout rate of only 14%. Streaming pitchers against the Orioles has been a profitable strategy this season, but only when it comes to pitchers with a pulse. I have nothing against Jackson and admire his ability to stay in the majors as long as he has, but he’s not a pitcher that we want to target for DFS.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Jackson in all formats.
Hess is not a good major league pitcher. In 12 starts this season, he owns a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 8%. Half of you might want to cover your eyes as you read this, but I actually don’t hate him as an SP2 in tournaments tonight on DraftKings ($4,100). The Blue Jays aren’t exactly an intimidating opponent for a right-handed pitcher and Hess has been dominant against Toronto in his career. The active roster for the Blue Jays is 4-for-42 with 17 strikeouts against Hess.
Quick Breakdown: I love the Blue Jays’ stack, but I also like Hess as a really cheap SP2 in tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
As mentioned above, David Hess is on my radar as a large-field GPP play. He provides direct leverage off of the highly owned Blue Jays’ offense. With that said, this is a great spot for Toronto on paper. If we ignore the BvP, hess has allowed a .355+ xwOBA and a 38%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He has really struggled with right-handed power bats, so we should have plenty of interest in Vladimir Guerrero (.363 xwOBA), Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel (.339 xwOBA)
Stackability – GREEN
I may have a share or two of David Hess tonight, but I will have a total of zero shares of Edwin Jackson. He has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .360+ xwOBA and a 45%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a 6.52 HR/9 to righties, which might be the highest mark that I’ve ever seen over a five game sample. The Orioles’ offense is bad, but this offense plays up right-handed power. Trey Mancini (.346 xwOBA) and Renato Nunez (.324 xwOBA) are two of my favorite plays of the slate and you can complete the stack with the lefties in the top half of the order.
Stackability – BLUE
Noto’s MLB Bets
We are still batting above .500 for the season, but baseball is a little different than other sports when it comes to betting. We are still dead even on the season, which is impressive but not exactly what we are looking for.
Season Record: 40-36 (even)