MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Houston at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET
We have five early games on the schedule and once again, the major DFS sites are rolling out different slates. FanDuel has broken down the early games into a very early slate and an early slate, while DraftKings has a five-game early slate. Both sites left the Mariners game off of their early slates. Cole is the most talented pitcher to take the mound today, but it’s not exactly an ideal spot. The Reds don’t strike out at a high rate and he’s facing them on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark. The real kicker is his price point ($12,000 FD / $11,400 DK).
Quick Breakdown: Cole is a solid play in a vacuum, but he’s expensive and the mid-range has a few intriguing options.
Mahle continues to struggle against left-handed hitters, but he continues to pitch well. In his 12 starts this season, he owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. He provides natural leverage off of Gerrit Cole and he’s markedly cheaper across the industry. The Astros aren’t exactly a right-handed heavy offense, but Mahle is currently projected to have the platoon advantage in this matchup.
Quick Breakdown: Mahle is an intriguing SP2 in tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
As noted above, the best way to attack Tyler Mahle is with left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .348 xwOBA, a .252 ISO, and a 2.40 HR/9 to batters from the left side of the plate. It’s the exact opposite story when he faces right-handed hitters. With Tony Kemp batting at the bottom of the order, that really only leaves us with two standout plays from Houston — Michael Brantley (.361 xwOBA) and Josh Reddick (.330 xwOBA).
Stackability – ORANGE
Even though I may not end up using Gerrit Cole in the early slate, there are enough games where I don’t feel the need to target any hitters against him. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. If you must play someone from Cincinnati, Derek Dietrich does boast a .403 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich (GPP)
Stackability – RED