MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - BOS @ MIN
Boston at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET
Rodriguez has pitched well in his 14 starts this season, posting a 3.99 SEIRA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. My issue tonight is two-fold — he’s facing the Twins and he’s pitching on the road. As I’ve noted time and time again, Minnesota leads the majors in ISO this season. While we are dealing with a small sample size, Rodriguez has averaged eight more fantasy points at home than he has on the road this season.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll take my chances elsewhere even though I like Rodriguez in the long run.
Gibson has made 13 starts this season, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. He’s better than most people realize, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not matchup-proof. The Red Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .360 with an average strikeout rate of only 22% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: We have two good pitchers on the mound, but two better offenses. Avoid Gibson in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
If I had to choose between rostering the pitchers or the hitters in this game, I would side toward the latter. Luckily, with nine other games on the schedule I can easily fade both. Kyle Gibson has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and has held right-handed hitters to a .309 xwOBA this season. His main issues have been against lefties, which brings Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers into play for tournaments. Mookie Betts is also viable because he’s affordable and basically matchup-proof.
Stackability – ORANGE
The Twins’ offense is a sleeping giant right now. They have been awfully quiet over the last week, so it’s only a matter of time before they breakout with a double-digit run performance. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see that happen tonight, this is a subpar matchup on paper. Eduardo Rodriguez has an above-average strikeout rate and has held righties to a .295 xwOBA this season. Rather than loading up on Minnesota, I will be using Nelson Cruz (.509 xwOBA) as a one-off target in all formats.
Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz
Stackability – ORANGE