MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - LAA @ TOR
LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Heaney wasn’t able to rack up strikeouts in his last start, but still has at least eight punch outs in three of his four outings this season. Tonight he heads to Toronto to take on a Blue Jays’ offense that has been incredibly hit or miss this season. Even though I don’t love the ballpark, it’s hard not to like the matchup. Toronto’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .298 with a strikeout rate of 25% against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: My interest in Heaney likely hinges on the availability of Scherzer. If Scherzer isn’t able to pitch, I will give more consideration to Heaney in all formats.
Sanchez has good splits at home, but is rarely a pitcher that I like to target in DFS. In his 15 starts this season, he owns a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 13%. He does induce ground balls at a high rate, but that’s not enough of a reason to play him tonight, especially in a matchup against the Angels. The projected lineup for Los Angeles has an average xwOBA of .357 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: It’s hard to think of a worse matchup for Sanchez. He should be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Angels are facing a pitcher with bad control that relies heavily on a high ground ball rate. This is a patient offense that doesn’t strikeout and they have a high fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. The roof in Toronto has been open for the first two games of the series, so give a boost to these offenses if it ends up being open again tonight. I follow this Twitter account for all Rogers Centre roof updates. A full stack is certainly viable against Aaron Sanchez, but my favorite three plays are Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Kole Calhoun. All three have high ISOs and high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching.
Stackability – GREEN
Andrew Heaney has an elite strikeout rate and will likely garner ownership tonight (especially if Max Scherzer doesn’t end up pitching for Washington). However, he has struggled with right-handed hitters throughout his career, so we can get leverage on the field in tournaments with Vladimir Guerrero (.393 xwOBA) and Lourdes Gurriel (.303 xwOBA). They are best suited as one-off targets and only in tournaments where you aren’t rostering Heaney.
Elite Plays – Vladimir Guerrero (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Lourdes Gurriel (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE