MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - MIL @ SDP
Milwaukee at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET
Davies has made 14 starts this season and owns a 2.60 ERA. Eventually, regression is going to rear its ugly head. His SIERA is two and a half runs higher than his ERA. he has a 15% strikeout rate and he doesn’t induce many ground balls. He has been tough on righties and he does see a strikeout boost in a matchup against the Padres, but I can’t pay $7,100 for him on FanDuel or DraftKings. Patrick Corbin and Chris Bassitt have more upside and are only a little bit more expensive in the early slate.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Davies in all formats.
Strahm didn’t look great in his first start back from injury, but still owns a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% on the season. The issue today is two-fold — he has a 46% hard contact rate and he is facing a Brewers’ offense that tears the cover off the ball. Strahm has allowed a .200+ ISO to both left and right-handed hitters, which makes him a very risky option against Milwaukee, whose projected lineup has an average ISO of .175 against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Strahm in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Matt Strahm has decent numbers as a whole, but his splits are enticing. He has allowed a .330+ xwOBA, a .200+ ISO, and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Christian Yelich (.450 xOBA), Yasmani Grandal (.419 xwOBA), and Mike Moustakas (.408 xwOBA) have the best numbers against southpaws in this lineup and all three will get overlooked in the early slate. If you are looking for value, Hernan Perez could be a nice option at second base.
Stackability – YELLOW
I don’t have much interest in Zach Davies today, as I will continue to wait for regression to catch up with him. However, the Padres don’t really stand out as great fantasy options. They struggle against right-handed pitching to begin with and Davies has held righties to a .294 xwOBA with a 50% ground ball rate. Eric Hosmer (.327 xwOBA) and Josh Naylor (.285 xwOBA) have the splits in their favor, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE