MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - MIL @ SDP

Milwaukee at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Davies has made 14 starts this season and owns a 2.60 ERA. Eventually, regression is going to rear its ugly head. His SIERA is two and a half runs higher than his ERA. he has a 15% strikeout rate and he doesn’t induce many ground balls. He has been tough on righties and he does see a strikeout boost in a matchup against the Padres, but I can’t pay $7,100 for him on FanDuel or DraftKings. Patrick Corbin and Chris Bassitt have more upside and are only a little bit more expensive in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Davies in all formats.

Strahm didn’t look great in his first start back from injury, but still owns a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% on the season. The issue today is two-fold — he has a 46% hard contact rate and he is facing a Brewers’ offense that tears the cover off the ball. Strahm has allowed a .200+ ISO to both left and right-handed hitters, which makes him a very risky option against Milwaukee, whose projected lineup has an average ISO of .175 against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Strahm in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Matt Strahm has decent numbers as a whole, but his splits are enticing. He has allowed a .330+ xwOBA, a .200+ ISO, and a 44%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Christian Yelich (.450 xOBA), Yasmani Grandal (.419 xwOBA), and Mike Moustakas (.408 xwOBA) have the best numbers against southpaws in this lineup and all three will get overlooked in the early slate. If you are looking for value, Hernan Perez could be a nice option at second base.

Elite PlaysChristian Yelich (GPP), Yasmani Grandal (GPP), Mike Moustakas (GPP)

Secondary PlaysChristian Yelich (Cash), Yasmani Grandal (Cash), Mike Moustakas (Cash), Ryan Braun (GPP), Hernan Perez


I don’t have much interest in Zach Davies today, as I will continue to wait for regression to catch up with him. However, the Padres don’t really stand out as great fantasy options. They struggle against right-handed pitching to begin with and Davies has held righties to a .294 xwOBA with a 50% ground ball rate. Eric Hosmer (.327 xwOBA) and Josh Naylor (.285 xwOBA) have the splits in their favor, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysEric Hosmer (GPP), Josh Naylor (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


  • ChinaTown

    These are confusing typos, you know that, right? I love your content. You need a copy editor. (I’m happy to help if you think I could.)

    “”(player-popup #matthew-strahm)Matt Strahm”:/players/matthew-strahm-34643 has decent numbers as a whole, but his splits are NOT enticing.”

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