MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - NYM @ ATL
NY Mets at Atlanta – 7:20 PM ET
Matz is one of those pitchers that always looks good on paper, but when it comes time to make lineups, I rarely end up clicking his name. It’s funny how that works because the same thing happens with a few players in other sports as well. Matz has good control, a 24% strikeout rate, and an ability to induce ground balls at a high rate. My concern tonight is a matchup against the Braves, who have been red-hot at the plate over the last couple of weeks. They really hit left-handed pitching well and have a low strikeout rate as a whole.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Matz in all formats.
Fried is basically free tonight across the industry. He’s a sizable favorite pitching at home and he’s priced under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I know he doesn’t have numbers that jump off the page at us, but there is nothing wrong with a 4.03 SIERA, a 21% strikeout rate, and a 54% ground ball rate. The Mets have some good right-handed hitters, but their projected lineup has a combined strikeout rate of 28% against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Fried rates out as the top point-per-dollar pitcher of the slate in my model. He’s firmly on my radar as an SP2.
Batter Grind Down
The Mets are an offense that should fly under the radar tonight. If Max Fried ends up being the chalk SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, you can make a case to play a hitter or two in this lineup for leverage in tournaments. On the season, Fried has allowed a .320 xwOBA and a 1.58 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. Pete Alonso (.441 xwOBA) and J.D. Davis (.426 xwOBA) both bat from the right side and both mash left-handed pitching, but they are deep tournament fliers at best.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Braves’ offense continues to roll and while it wouldn’t surprise me to see them keep it going tonight, I doubt I’ll have much exposure to their offense. Steven Matz is an above-average starter that has held righties to a .301 xwOBA this season. His reverse-splits bring Freddie Freeman into play as a strong one-off target that will garner very little ownership. DFS players are always hesitant to play the lefty/lefty matchup, but Freeman boasts a .395 xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman
Stackability – YELLOW