MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - PHI @ WAS (1)
Philadelphia at Washington – 1:05 PM ET
This game has now been postponed two times. They will try to get a double-header in today, but the weather doesn’t look like it wants to cooperate.
The Phillies are starting Eflin in the first game and Arrieta in the second game, but not a whole lot changes from our perspective. Eflin has a higher strikeout rate, but like Arrieta, he really struggles against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a .227 ISO to batters from that side of the plate. As an underdog on the road in a game that features a high total, Eflin offers more risk than upside.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eflin in all formats.
Dollar for dollar, Corbin is one of the top pitching options of the early slate. In 14 starts this season, he owns a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 8%. His price is discounted across the industry and he’s pitching at home in a good ballpark. We are expecting hitter-friendly weather conditions tonight, but Corbin is still a great play at this price point. The Phillies’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .321 with a strikeout rate of 23% against southpaws. If J.T. Realmuto is unable to suit up again, that would give Corbin a small boost.
Quick Breakdown: Corbin is an elite play in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
The Phillies are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Patrick Corbin. He has a 26% strikeout rate on the season and has held left-handed hitters to a .270 xwOBA. This immediately takes Bryce Harper out of my player pool. Corbin has been hittable for righties, allowing a .343 xwOBA and a .173 ISO to batters from that side of the plate this year. I won’t go out of my way to target the Phillies, but Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto are all worth a look in tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Zach Eflin is one of the easiest matchups to break down in all of baseball. On the season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .265 xwOBA with a 48% ground ball rate. Against batters from the right side of the plate, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a .227 ISO. The three-man lefty stack is awfully appealing here, especially since there are only five games in the early slate on DraftKings. Adam Eaton (.330 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.386 xwOBA), and Matt Adams (.353 xwOBA) are all elite options at their respective positions.
Stackability – YELLOW