MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 19th - PHI @ WAS (2)
Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Arrieta is set to start the second game of this double-header. There is rain in the forecast, so I want to get that out of the way early. We know that the Nationals like to postpone games with the danger of rain anywhere within 100 miles. Even if we get the green like from Kevin Roth, Arrieta is an easy fade for the main slate. He has a low strikeout rate and relies heavily on a high ground ball rate. His struggles against left-handed hitters could be on full display against the likes of Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, and Matt Adams.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Arrieta in all formats.
Scherzer broke his nose in batting practice the other day, but it sounds like he wants to tough it out and start tonight’s game against the Phillies. It hasn’t been confirmed by the Nationals, but Scherzer is currently listed as the probable starter. He’s a tough dude that always seems to have an axe to grind, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out and dominate. Assuming we get word that he’s going to pitch and that he won’t be limited, there is no reason why we can’t play him in a slate that lacks aces. Scherzer boasts a 33% strikeout rate and the Phillies projected lineup has an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: As long as he’s out there tonight, I will have interest in Scherzer as my SP1.
Batter Grind Down
I will be traveling most of the day, so I have no choice but to break down the Phillies as if they are facing Max Scherzer. If he doesn’t get the nod and they end up facing a few different relievers, you can make adjustments on your end. If they do end up facing Scherzer, they can be avoided in all formats. While he will give up the occasional home run, he has an elite strikeout rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .238 xwOBA this season.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Jake Arrieta makes my job easy. He has been very good against right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .281 xwOBA on a massive 60% ground ball rate. His problems have come against lefties, as he has given up a .420 xwOBA, a .238 ISO, and a 2.39 HR/9. While I wouldn’t completely fade Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, the matchup sets up better for Adam Eaton (.330 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.386 xwOBA), and Matt Adams (.353 xwOBA).
Stackability – YELLOW