MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:05 PM ET
There are six early games on the schedule today and the slates differ depending on which site you are playing on. FanDuel has broken the early games into two slates, the three-game very early and the three-game early slate. DraftKings and FantasyDraft are both offering a six-game early slate.
Lopez doesn’t offer much of a floor or a ceiling, which makes him a risky fantasy option every time he takes the mound. In 16 starts this season, he owns a 5.08 SIERA with a 10% walk rate and a 39% hard contact rate. Today’s matchup isn’t going to help, as he goes on the road to take on the Red Sox. Boston’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .340 and an average ISO of .217 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Lopez offers more risk than upside, especially in a matchup against the Red Sox.
Sale is essentially an auto-play in the early slate, at least in my eyes. He struggled a bit his last time out, but it wasn’t due to a dip in fastball velocity or in swinging strikes. Even the best pitchers are going to have bad outings every now and then. He still owns a 2.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36% on the season. He should have no issue racking up the strikeouts against the White Sox and he can afford to be aggressive if and when the Red Sox get out to a lead.
Quick Breakdown: Sale is an elite play in all formats. Eat the chalk and look to differentiate elsewhere.
Batter Grind Down
The White Sox have made it tough on Eduardo Rodriguez and David Price in this series, but Chris Sale is pitching at a completely different level. In addition to having one of the highest strikeout rates in all of baseball, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. Crazy things happen in baseball every day, but I don’t go out of my way searching for variance.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Reynaldo Lopez is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with batters from both sides of the plate. He has a below-average strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, so the Red Sox batters should be licking their chops for this matchup. On the season, Lopez has allowed a .383 xwOBA to lefties and a .353 xwOBA to righties. He has also had home run issues against both lefties and righties. For Boston, each of the first six hitters in their projected lineup owns a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley.
Stackability – GREEN