MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 15th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.




LA Angels at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

We have six early games on the schedule today, but the early slate on FanDuel only includes the first four and the early slate on DraftKings only includes the three games that we’ll talk about after this one. Cahill has made eight starts this season, posting a 4.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He hasn’t been inducing as many ground balls this season, which has led to a higher hard contact rate. On FanDuel, he’s an easy fade in the early slate. If you are playing the showdown slate on DraftKings, the two-pitcher strategy is always viable.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cahill on FanDuel and give him a look if you are playing the showdown slate on DraftKings.

Odorizzi has quietly had a nice season for the Twins, posting a 4.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so he needs a high k-rate to have success. The issue today is a matchup against the Angels, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. The projected lineup for Los Angeles has an average xwOBA of .343 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching. In the early slate, I would much rather target Happ or Greinke.

Quick Breakdown: Similar to Cahill, Odorizzi is an easy fade on FanDuel and is viable in the showdown slate on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

The Angels see a ballpark boost playing in Minnesota and they are facing a pitcher that relies heavily on a high strikeout rate. If you make contact against Jake Odorizzi, good things tend to happen. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons combined. Tommy La Stella (.333 xwOBA), Mike Trout (.453 xwOBA), and Shohei Ohtani (.432 xwOBA) all mash right-handed pitching and are all elite plays at their respective positions. With everyone gravitating to the Yankees, the Angels’ hitters could fly under the radar in terms of ownership.

Elite Plays – Tommy La Stella, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

Secondary PlaysAndrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols, Brian Goodwin

StackabilityYELLOW

When he’s at his best, Trevor Cahill has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates. He doesn’t have either going for him this season, which is why he has given up so much hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .414 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties. Even if Cahill did have a high ground ball rate, the Twins’ lineup is loaded with high fly-ball hitters. Max Kepler (.327 xwOBA), Jorge Polanco (.350 xwOBA), C.J. Cron (.349 xwOBA), and Willians Astudillo (.381 xwOBA) are the top targets here.

Elite PlaysMax Kepler, Jorge Polanco (GPP), C.J. Cron (GPP), Willians Astudillo (GPP)

Secondary PlaysJorge Polanco (Cash), C.J. Cron (Cash), Willians Astudillo (Cash), Eddie Rosario (GPP)

StackabilityGREEN

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

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