MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
LA Angels at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
We have six early games on the schedule today, but the early slate on FanDuel only includes the first four and the early slate on DraftKings only includes the three games that we’ll talk about after this one. Cahill has made eight starts this season, posting a 4.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He hasn’t been inducing as many ground balls this season, which has led to a higher hard contact rate. On FanDuel, he’s an easy fade in the early slate. If you are playing the showdown slate on DraftKings, the two-pitcher strategy is always viable.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cahill on FanDuel and give him a look if you are playing the showdown slate on DraftKings.
Odorizzi has quietly had a nice season for the Twins, posting a 4.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so he needs a high k-rate to have success. The issue today is a matchup against the Angels, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. The projected lineup for Los Angeles has an average xwOBA of .343 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching. In the early slate, I would much rather target Happ or Greinke.
Quick Breakdown: Similar to Cahill, Odorizzi is an easy fade on FanDuel and is viable in the showdown slate on DraftKings.
Batter Grind Down
The Angels see a ballpark boost playing in Minnesota and they are facing a pitcher that relies heavily on a high strikeout rate. If you make contact against Jake Odorizzi, good things tend to happen. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons combined. Tommy La Stella (.333 xwOBA), Mike Trout (.453 xwOBA), and Shohei Ohtani (.432 xwOBA) all mash right-handed pitching and are all elite plays at their respective positions. With everyone gravitating to the Yankees, the Angels’ hitters could fly under the radar in terms of ownership.
Stackability – YELLOW
When he’s at his best, Trevor Cahill has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates. He doesn’t have either going for him this season, which is why he has given up so much hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .414 xwOBA to lefties and a .359 xwOBA to righties. Even if Cahill did have a high ground ball rate, the Twins’ lineup is loaded with high fly-ball hitters. Max Kepler (.327 xwOBA), Jorge Polanco (.350 xwOBA), C.J. Cron (.349 xwOBA), and Willians Astudillo (.381 xwOBA) are the top targets here.
Stackability – GREEN