MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 22nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
Oakland at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
My decision to fade Justin Verlander in lieu of an Astros stack last night didn’t work out as I had hoped, so I’m ready to get back to it on Wednesday. There are five early games on the schedule, but only the first four are included in the early slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Montas has a nice skill set that allows him to pitch well in any ballpark. In eight starts this season, he owns a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 52%. While he’s been tough on batters from both sides of the plate, the Indians are far from an ideal matchup. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .331 with a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Pitching options are limited in this four-game slate, which makes Montas viable in all formats.
Rodriguez has some serious regression heading his way. His SIERA is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA and he can’t run well with a low BABIP and a high LOB% forever. With that said, he’s very good against right-handed hitters (.261 xwOBA allowed with a 58% ground ball rate) and is expected to have the platoon advantage against the A’s, whose projected lineup has six righties in it.
Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez doesn’t offer much of a ceiling, but it’s a decent matchup and we are dealing with limited options.
Batter Grind Down
Jefry Rodriguez is one of the easiest matchups of the slate to break down. As noted above, he is incredibly tough on right-handed hitters. However, he has allowed a .403 xwOBA and a .395 xwOBA to lefties in the last two seasons. Matt Olson (.372 xwOBA against righties) and Jurickson Profar (.374 xwOBA over the last 14 days) are the top targets from Oakland.
Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE
I always hesitate to target hitters against pitchers that own above-average strikeout and ground ball rates. Frankie Montas has both of those in his repertoire and good control on top of it. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. The Indians are solid at home and this is a good ballpark for left-handed power, but Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Carlos Gonzalez, and Jose Ramirez are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE