NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 19th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Orlando Magic
Vegas Total 210.0 Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Implied Team Total 107.3 Implied Team Total 102.8
Pace Projection +/- -3.7 Pace Projection +/- -1.9
Projected Starters Kyle Lowry Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Pascal Siakam Marc Gasol Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Jonathan Isaac Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 23 18 16 8 3 DEFF 12 17 3 6 11
DvsA 14 2 19 15 1 DvsA 17 10 4 12 4

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

Pat McCaw (Questionable)
OG Anunoby (Out)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 116.0 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.3 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 110.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 107.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 50.4 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 98.7 (24 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Kyle Lowry $7,800 $6,800 35.9 -1.6 34.1 1.6 1.05 20.3% 23 14 19
Danny Green $4,300 $4,200 21.4 -4.3 27.7 0.3 0.77 13.1% 18 2 19
Kawhi Leonard $9,700 $8,200 44.9 -2.2 34.0 -0.9 1.32 28.3% 16 19 11
Pascal Siakam $8,500 $7,300 32.7 7.9 31.8 7.6 1.03 19.4% 8 15 14
Marc Gasol $6,200 $5,500 34.3 -5.1 30.8 -3.9 1.11 19.1% 3 1 2
Fred VanVleet $4,200 $4,300 23.6 -10.2 27.5 -3.5 0.86 19.0% N/A 3 N/A
Serge Ibaka $5,300 $5,600 30.6 -8.2 27.2 -5.7 1.12 20.1% N/A 10 N/A
Norman Powell $3,700 $3,400 15.2 -2.2 18.8 2.2 0.81 17.5% N/A 24 N/A

The Raptors are 4.5-point favorites tonight for Game 3 in Orlando. Toronto’s implied team total of 107.3 points is third-highest on the slate, but it’s also a 7.2-point hit on their season average.

The Raptors showed up in a big way in Game 2 after falling into an 0-1 hole. Kyle Lowry, who gets the best on-paper micro matchup among the 5 starters, finished with 22 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds in Game 2. Lowry has seemingly always been hit-or-miss once the playoffs roll around, but the Magic are just 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards over the last 10 games and Lowry’s the cheapest among the “elite” point guards on tonight’s slate. Lowry is an elite individual option and a nice secondary point guard spend. Fred VanVleet has rarely been a priority with the Raptors near full strength, but his role is there. So, if you’re shopping for a cheap option I think you can do worse.

Danny Green lost some minutes to Norman Powell in the last game, but that’s probably a situation worth ignoring unless you’re entering multiple tournament lineups. Both are low enough per-minute producers to where they’re basically YOLO punts at this point. Kawhi Leonard broke out and scored 37 points in Game 2, and he leads the way for Toronto with an average of 1.33 FP/min on the season. Orlando hasn’t been anything special defensively against wings (16th vs. SFs over the last 10 games), so Leonard is right there with Paul George as the best small forward option on the slate tonight.

Pascal Siakam has been arguably the most consistent Raptor this season, and he’s obviously the safest option among the team’s frontcourt trio. The Magic have been considerably more stingy defensively up front than they have been on the wings, but Siakam is still a stellar option at a pretty weak power forward position. Marc Gasol is the safer option than Serge Ibaka considering Gasol’s the starter, and I’m not overly concerned about Ibaka seeing more minutes in the last game. Gasol is the play if you’re rolling out cash lineups, while Ibaka makes sense as a pivot in tournaments.

Elite PlaysKyle Lowry, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol (cash)

Secondary PlaysMarc Gasol (GPP), Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet


Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

None

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 117.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 106.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 106.8 (5 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 50.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 100.6 (15 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
D.J. Augustin $6,000 $5,500 22.9 7.0 28.0 -1.5 0.82 18.8% 12 17 3
Evan Fournier $5,100 $5,400 25.4 -3.5 31.5 2.7 0.81 21.3% 17 10 1
Jonathan Isaac $5,100 $4,600 23.2 -4.0 26.6 4.8 0.87 14.8% 3 4 15
Aaron Gordon $6,700 $6,200 32.5 -0.8 33.8 -0.6 0.96 20.5% 6 12 3
Nikola Vucevic $8,700 $7,800 45.2 -23.3 31.4 -2.2 1.44 26.6% 11 4 6
Terrence Ross $5,500 $5,000 24.7 -2.3 26.5 -0.6 0.93 22.5% N/A 10 N/A
Michael Carter-Williams $4,100 $4,000 14.5 4.5 13.3 8.2 1.09 21.6% N/A 5 N/A
Khem Birch $3,600 $3,200 13.2 1.0 12.9 5.9 1.02 13.1% N/A 7 N/A

The Magic have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate at 102.8 points. Still, they’re only 4.5-point underdogs here, so Vegas likes the game to stay close.

Orlando got trounced by 29 in Game 2, so it’s tough to draw too many conclusions. Aaron Gordon was the only starter that wasn’t absolutely terrible in that game. D.J. Augustin was held in check following his big 25-point effort in Game 1. That Game 1 performance was clearly an outlier, but I still think Augustin is a passable option if you’re shopping in his price range. It’s not a matchup I love attacking, though, with the Raptors ranking 12th in defensive rating against point guards over the last 10 games. Michael Carter-Williams has surfaced as a pretty useful bench cog in Orlando. He may not be a great real-life basketball player, but he’s averaged a strong 1.08 FP/min since joining the Magic. He’s in play as a value option tonight, especially in GPPs.

Evan Fournier still has the minutes edge on Terrence Ross, but Ross has been more productive on a per-minute basis. I tended to follow a Fournier-cash, Ross-GPP rule during the regular season, so I see little reason to change now. The matchup stinks, though, as they’re going up against guys like Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Lowry all night. Jonathan Isaac played a whopping 40 minutes in Game 1. With a relatively tight spread tonight, it’s hard not to have interest in a guy with that kind of minutes upside at his price point. He’s a middling per-minute producer, but it’s not like we have a bevy of value on this slate.

Gordon has been Orlando’s most consistent player thus far, and he’s been right around a fantasy point per minute all year long. The Raps are sixth in D-rating vs. power forwards over the last 10 games, but we’re getting Gordon at a decent discount around the industry ($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD). I’ll gladly take some shots on Gordon at that price point. Ditto for Nikola Vucevic, whose price has dipped below $8,000 on DK and $9,000 on FD. Center has decent depth tonight, but it’s a slate lacking in terms of high-end options. Gasol is still a quality defender, but I like Vooch to bust out of his mini-slump in Orlando’s first home playoff game.

Elite PlaysNikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon

Secondary PlaysJonathan Isaac, Evan Fournier (cash), Terrence Ross (GPP), D.J. Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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