NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 11th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total 231.5 Vegas Total 231.5
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Implied Team Total 109.8 Implied Team Total 121.8
Pace Projection +/- 2.0 Pace Projection +/- 4.9
Projected Starters Trae Young Kevin Huerter DeAndre Bembry John Collins Dewayne Dedmon Projected Starters Ben Simmons JJ Redick Jimmy Butler Wilson Chandler Joel Embiid
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 20 7 5 21 9 DEFF 29 29 16 29 21
DvsA 22 4 4 11 11 DvsA 22 29 29 30 27

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Taurean Prince (Out)
Kent Bazemore (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 108.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.8 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (9 of 18)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (7 of 30)

There are nine games on the schedule tonight in what is shaping up to be a fun slate. There are two teams in particular that I am looking to stack, but neither are featured in this game. The Hawks have played well recently, but still come into tonight’s game as 12-point underdogs. They draw a decent matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked seventh in pace of play and 22nd in points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is a point higher than their season average.

Ben Simmons is a very good defender, but he’s not always tasked with defending the opposing team’s point guard. The Sixers as a whole are ranked 20th in efficiency against point guards. This statistic will surprise many — Trae Young has scored at least 23 fantasy points in ten straight games and has topped 30 fantasy points eight times during that stretch. He’s an intriguing tournament play that should garner very little ownership. The more appealing play on a per-dollar basis is Jeremy Lin. Even with Kevin Huerter back in the lineup on Wednesday, Lin played 28 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points.

DeAndre Bembry has played well recently and always offers upside at his price point. He is still only $4,400 on DraftKings if you are looking for a low-owned tournament play. John Collins has the highest ceiling of any Hawks’ player, but he’s also the riskiest in a game that features such a high spread. In potential blowouts, I’m more willing to target the favored team or the cheap players from the underdog. This is a spot where Collins could play well, but he would only crack my player pool if I were making five or more lineups. Dewayne Dedmon hasn’t topped 30 minutes in six straight games and could get into foul trouble against Joel Embiid.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Trae Young $6,600 $6,000 $11,800 29.5 1.7 29.4 0.9 1.00 26.1% 20 22 1
Kevin Huerter $4,900 $4,700 $9,000 17.6 7.6 26.0 9.5 0.68 14.0% 7 4 20
DeAndre Bembry $5,300 $4,400 $8,700 21.3 0.4 24.0 5.0 0.89 16.4% 5 4 2
John Collins $8,300 $7,800 $14,200 34.5 2.3 29.8 0.8 1.16 20.4% 21 11 11
Dewayne Dedmon $6,100 $5,300 $10,900 24.8 -1.4 24.4 0.7 1.02 14.4% 9 11 11
Jeremy Lin $5,100 $4,600 $9,300 20.1 8.3 19.3 5.7 1.04 21.8% N/A 22 N/A
Alex Len $5,100 $4,200 $8,500 20.5 -2.3 20.3 0.3 1.01 19.2% N/A 11 N/A
Daniel Hamilton $3,900 $3,400 $6,500 8.5 4.6 12.1 6.1 0.70 13.7% N/A 4 N/A

Elite PlaysJeremy Lin (GPP)

Secondary PlaysTrae Young (Cash), DeAndre Bembry (DK GPP), John Collins (GPP)


Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

JJ Redick (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 114.6 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 121.8 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 7.2 (1 of 18)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 117.2 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.4 (1 of 30)

The Sixers have not been great on the road this season, but boast an 18-3 record at home. As 12-point home favorites, they should be able to add to their win total tonight. While a blowout is a concern, there is certainly upside in a matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Sixers not only have the highest implied total (121.8 points) on the board, but also the best projected point differential (+7.2).

Whenever we have these large spreads in large slates, I tend to avoid the situation in cash games unless there is an obvious value play. If JJ Redick is unable to suit up, Furkan Korkmaz and T.J. McConnell would both become borderline elite values. Outside of those two, the Sixers offer more appeal in tournaments than in cash games. Ben Simmons has triple-double type of upside against a Hawks’ team that is ranked 29th in efficiency against point guards. If Redick is active, he could offer some sneaky upside against a team that has allowed the third most three-pointers made per game.

Jimmy Butler has played well over his last four games and draws an exploitable matchup against the Hawks, but his price has come up across the industry. I’m not sure his upside makes up for the blowout potential in this game. Joel Embiid, on the other hand, has as much upside as any player in this slate. The Hawks are ranked 21st in efficiency against centers and 27th in DvsA against versatile bigs. He has averaged 57 fantasy points over his last four games and as I’ve mentioned a number of times recently, he has a different rotation than most superstars. The Sixers sub him out after five minutes in the third and put him back in the game with a few minutes left in the quarter. He then starts the fourth quarter, which helps his minute floor in potential blowout situations.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,300 $8,900 $16,400 41.8 1.1 33.2 1.5 1.26 22.6% 29 22 30
JJ Redick $5,700 $5,500 $10,600 25.7 10.4 30.9 4.3 0.83 21.6% 29 29 7
Jimmy Butler $8,000 $7,600 $14,400 36.8 0.9 33.0 -1.2 1.11 22.7% 16 29 19
Wilson Chandler $3,900 $3,600 $6,900 16.2 -2.2 25.6 -1.5 0.63 10.3% 29 30 28
Joel Embiid $11,100 $11,000 $19,600 52.4 4.6 33.7 -1.6 1.55 29.0% 21 27 9
T.J. McConnell $4,900 $3,700 $7,200 17.4 2.7 20.7 5.4 0.84 14.5% N/A 22 N/A
Mike Muscala $3,700 $3,200 $6,100 16.3 -6.3 22.3 -4.5 0.73 13.6% N/A 27 N/A
Furkan Korkmaz $4,200 $3,900 $8,100 13.6 9.4 16.0 11.0 0.85 16.8% N/A 30 N/A

Elite PlaysJoel Embiid (GPP), Ben Simmons (GPP), Furkan Korkmaz & T.J. McConnell (if Redick is out)

Secondary PlaysJJ Redick (if active)


Noto’s NBA Bets

The bets were 2-2 last night. I wanted to get off of the over for the Pistons’ game once Blake Griffin was ruled out, but there’s not really a way for me to communicate that to everyone, so I’ll eat the loss. Last chance of the week to hit our +30 unit goal.

Whether you are actually betting the games or just want to test your betting skills, download the SharpSide app or visit the SharpSide desktop site.

Overall Record: 106-68 (+27.1 units)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • fbcoach28

    Per your take on Embiid in a possible Philly blowout, it depends on your definition of blowout. Because there are two types. 1. A blowout that happens well before the 3rd/4th quarter…and then 2. a 10 pt game that becomes a blowout in the 4th. The last 2 blowouts (game over by half or 3rd quarter, Embiid played 22 minutes both games. I disagree with your take that Embiid will have a higher minute floor even in blowouts, based on not defining what type of blowout…(unless you are personally fading Embiid and want everyone to play them in their line-ups). I am just being snarkey with the last part. I would agree with your sentiment, if one feels that Atlanta could keep this a 10-12 point game to start the 4th…and then becomes a blowout as the 4th progresses and Embiid sitting the last 5 minutes wouldnt really harm his minutes floor.

  • vucdores1

    Ouch. Playing with fire picking NBA unders

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