NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 15th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total 232.0 Vegas Total 232.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Implied Team Total 111.3 Implied Team Total 120.8
Pace Projection +/- 0.2 Pace Projection +/- 4.8
Projected Starters De’Aaron Fox Buddy Hield Harrison Barnes Nemanja Bjelica Willie Cauley-Stein Projected Starters Ben Simmons JJ Redick Jimmy Butler Tobias Harris Joel Embiid
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 2 24 19 12 15 DEFF 25 8 11 10 20
DvsA 2 5 20 20 16 DvsA 28 28 8 23 19

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries


Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 115.7 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.3 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 107.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 104.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 52.4 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 102.7 (11 of 30)

The Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Celtics last night in Boston. They now travel to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers, who are ranked eighth or better in points allowed, defensive rating, and rebounding percentage over the last 10 games. The Kings are listed as 9.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 111.3 points, which is the sixth lowest on the board and three points below their season average.

With eight games on the schedule, I’m less inclined to target risky situations in cash games. I see the Kings as risky given the back-to-back and the 9.5-point spread. For tournaments, there are a few intriguing options. Over his last four games, De’Aaron Fox has averaged 37 minutes and 41 fantasy points. His price is affordable across the industry, but the Sixers have been very tough on point guards this season. Buddy Hield is still affordable on FanDuel ($6,800) and draws the best matchup of the five starters when you look at the efficiency numbers for Philadelphia.

Bogdan Bogdanovic has not been in good form recently and his playing time could continue to trend in the wrong direction with Marvin Bagley back from injury. Harrison Barnes should see minutes in the mid 30s if this game stays competitive and he continues to offer good point-per-dollar value. Nemanja Bjelica has an incredibly wide range of potential outcomes, but he has a high ceiling for a player at his price point. Willie Cauley-Stein could see some extra run tonight given a matchup against Joel Embiid. At the very least, he’s worth including in your player pool if you are building multiple lineups.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
De’Aaron Fox $8,000 $6,900 $13,400 36.6 4.0 31.9 5.2 1.15 24.6% 2 2 5
Buddy Hield $6,800 $7,100 $13,100 32.0 2.3 32.1 3.6 1.00 23.3% 24 5 15
Harrison Barnes $5,500 $5,500 $10,800 26.6 4.9 33.1 2.9 0.80 19.3% 19 20 1
Nemanja Bjelica $5,200 $4,600 $9,500 22.8 7.4 23.4 7.0 0.97 15.5% 12 20 19
Willie Cauley-Stein $5,600 $5,200 $9,900 31.0 -0.3 27.9 -0.3 1.11 17.4% 15 16 8
Marvin Bagley $6,000 $5,800 $11,700 27.2 -6.0 24.7 -5.6 1.10 20.1% N/A 20 N/A
Bogdan Bogdanovic $5,100 $5,100 $9,900 27.0 -9.0 28.3 -3.3 0.96 22.1% N/A 14 N/A
Harry Giles $4,400 $3,700 $7,700 15.1 3.5 14.0 6.4 1.08 20.2% N/A 20 N/A

Elite Plays – De’Aaron Fox (GPP), Buddy Hield (FD), Harrison Barnes (GPP), Nemanja Bjelica (GPP), Willie Cauley-Stein (GPP)

Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox (Cash), Harrison Barnes (Cash)

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Ben Simmons (Probable)
Jimmy Butler (Probable)
Mike Scott (Probable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 108.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 120.8 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 117.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 108.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 49.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 107.3 (2 of 30)

The Sixers have won six of their last 10 games and can pull even with the Pacers with a win tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked second in pace of play and 25th in points allowed over the last 10 games. With both teams pushing the pace, this could be a great fantasy environment if the game stays competitive. The Sixers have an implied total of 120.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and six points above their season average.

Unlike Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons is just as productive with Joel Embiid on the floor as he is with him off the floor. Simmons is a bit overpriced on FanDuel ($9,800), but stands out as a strong play on DraftKings ($8,500). In addition to a great matchup, Simmons is small forward-eligible on DraftKings. Even though I like the pace of this game, I don’t have a ton of interest in JJ Redick or Butler. Shooting guard isn’t the deepest position of the slate, but there is one in particular that stands out in a later game.

Tobias Harris draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 23rd in DvsA against versatile forwards. Harris hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he should play 35 minutes in an uptempo game and he’s priced all the way down to $6,900 on FanDuel. Joel Embiid is far and away my favorite play at center tonight. He’s back to playing a full complement of minutes and he’s significantly underpriced on both FanDuel ($10,900) and DraftKings ($9,900). Add in a matchup against the Kings and we have ourselves one of the top plays of the slate.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,800 $8,500 $15,600 42.7 0.8 34.3 1.0 1.24 22.5% 25 28 4
JJ Redick $5,500 $5,000 $9,500 25.0 -5.4 31.3 0.6 0.80 20.7% 8 28 20
Jimmy Butler $8,100 $7,200 $13,800 37.0 -2.2 33.6 0.0 1.10 22.2% 11 8 12
Tobias Harris $6,900 $7,200 $13,600 35.9 -8.9 34.9 1.1 1.03 21.3% 10 23 4
Joel Embiid $10,900 $9,900 $18,300 52.5 1.3 33.6 -2.4 1.56 29.6% 20 19 10
Mike Scott $3,800 $3,800 $7,200 12.0 4.7 16.4 10.0 0.73 13.6% N/A 23 N/A
Boban Marjanovic $4,700 $3,900 $7,500 15.2 5.8 11.6 2.0 1.31 19.7% N/A 21 N/A
T.J. McConnell $3,500 $3,200 $6,100 17.7 -6.2 20.0 -3.0 0.89 15.4% N/A 28 N/A

Elite PlaysJoel Embiid, Ben Simmons (DK), Tobias Harris (FD)

Secondary PlaysBen Simmons (FD), Tobias Harris (DK)

Noto’s NBA Bets

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Season Record: 199-169 (+10 units)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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