NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 9th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total 226.0 Vegas Total 226.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Implied Team Total 110.0 Implied Team Total 116.0
Pace Projection +/- 3.4 Pace Projection +/- -0.3
Projected Starters Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Projected Starters Ben Simmons Markelle Fultz Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 4 15 11 30 3 DEFF 2 20 16 8 22
DRPM 1 6 1 19 2 DRPM 18 13 19 10 14

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 115.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (13 of 14)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.0 (5 of 30)

There is nothing quite like a Friday. I know we get one every seven days, but there is nothing better. Seeing as how this is the last day of the workweek, it is your last chance to get this week’s discounted RotoAcademy course: Gneiffer07 & Bobbyfi’s NBA Tournament Handbook. We’ll feature a new course next week and yes, I’m in the process of recording my behind the scenes video of my NBA DFS model. I’m hoping to have that course available for purchase sometime next week.

We kick off tonight’s seven-game slate with the Hornets and Sixers in a game that features a total of 226 points. There has been a lot of talk about the Sixers struggling defensively this season, but it’s a bit overboard. Philadelphia is still ranked fifth in defensive efficiency. A large part of why they have allowed 111.3 points per game is their pace of play (fifth in the NBA). Overall, I’d call this an average matchup at best for the Hornets. Charlotte comes into the game with an implied total of 110 points, which gives them the second lowest projected point differential on the board.

Kemba Walker has been hit or miss this season, but there is no denying his usage in this offense. He currently owns a 32.2% true usage rate, which is second only to Russell Westbrook in the entire NBA. His price point on FanDuel ($8,600) is certainly enticing, but that is somewhat offset by his matchup against the Sixers. They are ranked fourth in efficiency against point guards and have been very tough on combo guards (-11.9% DvA). The mid range of point guard is loaded with options, so I don’t view Walker as a core play tonight.

Jeremy Lamb stands out as a decent value play at shooting guard, but there are no shortage of values at his position. I rarely end up on Nicolas Batum when it comes to DFS and that’s not going to change in a matchup against Robert Covington. Malik Monk and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist offer the best point-per-dollar upside of the Hornets’ wing players, but they are thin plays in a seven-game slate. Cody Zeller could see a significant boost in playing time tonight, as the Hornets will need his size against Joel Embiid. Zeller is a decent punt on FanDuel ($4,400).

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 Minutes L4 FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvA DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,600 $9,400 $17,100 43.6 -6.1 33.5 -0.4 1.30 32.2% 4 -11.9% 1
Jeremy Lamb $4,800 $4,900 $9,900 23.8 0.2 24.4 -1.7 0.97 20.5% 15 -11.9% 6
Nicolas Batum $6,000 $6,300 $12,800 27.1 1.1 33.2 -1.5 0.82 13.4% 11 19.9% 1
Marvin Williams $4,200 $4,200 $8,600 19.3 -4.2 23.3 -2.0 0.83 14.9% 30 18.2% 19
Cody Zeller $4,400 $4,100 $7,800 19.8 -1.4 22.6 1.8 0.88 12.8% 3 0.8% 2
Malik Monk $4,500 $4,400 $8,600 20.3 2.6 23.3 -1.2 0.87 23.9% N/A -11.9% N/A
Miles Bridges $3,800 $3,500 $6,800 16.1 -1.3 19.5 0.1 0.83 14.5% N/A 18.2% N/A
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $3,800 $4,000 $7,600 22.3 -1.7 21.2 0.3 1.05 16.9% N/A -18.4% N/A

Elite PlaysKemba Walker (FD GPP), Cody Zeller (FD GPP)

Secondary PlaysKemba Walker (FD Cash), Cody Zeller (FD Cash & DK GPP), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD)


Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Mike Muscala (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.7 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.0 (2 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (4 of 14)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (16 of 30)

The Sixers are only 7-5 to start the season, but they have yet to lose at home. They will look to extend their home winning streak tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While this is a mediocre matchup overall, it does help that the game is being played in Philadelphia. The Sixers have an implied total of 116 points, which is the second highest of the slate and 5.3 points above their season average.

Ben Simmons is not being priced for his production in the 2018-19 season. He is still getting credit for his fantasy produciton from last year. He’s close to $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, despite averaging only 40 fantasy points per game. He sees a small boost given the fact that the Hornets don’t have a good rim protector, but that’s not enough for me to justify playing Simmons over some of the other superstars in this slate. Markelle Fultz is the starter in name, but JJ Redick continues to see around 30 minutes per game off the bench. Unfortunately, his production has fallen off the map over the last couple of weeks. If you are in desperate need of value (you shouldn’t be), Landry Shamet has played at least 22 minutes in three of his last four games.

Robert Covington has been quiet over the last four games, averaging only 24 fantasy points. However, we’ve seen his price come all the way down to $5,400 on DraftKings. I always like Covington in tournaments because his strong suits are shooting threes and racking up blocks and steals. Those always translate well in DFS. Dario Saric has really struggled this season, but played 35 minutes and scored 31 fantasy points against the Pacers on Wednesday. This might be the cheapest we see Saric for quite some time. Joel Embiid should have no issue getting whatever he wants on the offensive end of the floor. He gets to face an under-sized Hornets’ frontcourt that is ranked 22nd in efficiency against centers this season.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 Minutes L4 FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvA DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,700 $9,800 $18,300 39.6 0.9 31.0 0.4 1.28 22.4% 2 -2.1% 18
Markelle Fultz $4,900 $4,700 $9,000 22.5 1.1 24.4 -0.4 0.92 19.3% 20 -3.6% 13
Robert Covington $6,600 $5,400 $10,200 28.7 -5.1 34.2 -1.7 0.84 12.1% 16 9.9% 19
Dario Saric $5,200 $5,000 $9,800 21.0 -4.4 29.6 -2.8 0.71 15.8% 8 4.7% 10
Joel Embiid $11,000 $11,200 $20,400 52.6 0.4 34.3 -0.5 1.53 29.2% 22 -8.4% 14
JJ Redick $5,200 $5,200 $10,200 25.4 -6.1 30.4 0.0 0.84 22.4% N/A 7.3% N/A
Landry Shamet $3,600 $3,400 $6,600 12.0 4.0 20.0 3.5 0.60 13.6% N/A -3.6% N/A
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,200 $6,700 11.4 -3.6 11.0 -1.4 1.04 14.7% N/A -5.7% N/A

Elite PlaysDario Saric, Joel Embiid (FD)

Secondary PlaysJoel Embiid (DK), Robert Covington (DK), Ben Simmons (FD GPP)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Incentives members on a daily basis during the NBA season with daily videos for the Court Report and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards..

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

    January 5th, 2012 Daily Fantasy Fix

    February 14th, 2013 Daily Fantasy Fix

    footballguys.com Interview

Comments

  • Frito5

    If you buy the course today do you have to watch all of it today or can you watch it whenever?

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