NBA Grind Down: Heat at Pistons - Sunday, March 19th
Five games on the main slate tonight, starting with the Heat paying a visit to the Pistons in Detroit. Miami lost in a blowout in Chicago last night, but they’re 8-point road favorites over the NBA’s worst team tonight. As always, be sure to read all the way to the end for the top NBA DFS picks and a complimentary PrizePicks pick from Heat-Pistons.
The Grind Down Overview will return on Monday!
NBA DFS: Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
| Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 |
Vegas Total | 220.5 |  |
Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.5 | Vegas Spread | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 115.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Points +/- | 6.0 | Points +/- | -5.6 | |||||||||
| Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Starters | Gabe Vincent | Tyler Herro | Jimmy Butler | Kevin Love | Bam Adebayo | Projected Starters | Killian Hayes | Jaden Ivey | Rodney McGruder | Eugene Omoruyi | James Wiseman | |
| D EFF (L10) | 17 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 25 | D EFF (L10) | 21 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 10 | |
Miami Heat NBA DFS Preview
The Heat need to win as much as they possibly can down the stretch, so last night’s result was a bit of a surprise. A loss in tonight’s game would be downright calamitous, as the Pistons come into this one with a dismal 16-55 record on the season.
Sunday NBA DFS Notes
Notable Injuries:
Kyle Lowry (Questionable)
Cody Zeller (Doubtful)
Miami Heat Stats:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Total: 115.0 (10 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 49.8% (17 of 30)
DET Matchup:
Pace of Play: 100.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 117.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (23 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
Kyle Lowry is expected to play tonight after resting last night, which will push Gabe Vincent back to the bench. Lowry’s been playing limited minutes, anyway, so I have next to no interest in looking his way tonight. Jimmy Butler (1.25 FP/min) is still attractively priced on DraftKings ($8,600), while Bam Adebayo (1.15) is a little underpriced just about every night. The Pistons’ frontcourt is in shambles these days, which makes Bam a core target tonight, in my view.
Tyler Herro gets plenty of usage (26%), but his floor is low if his shots aren’t falling. There’s a good chance those shots will be falling tonight against the Pistons’ porous defense, so I’ll gladly look Herro’s way in all formats here. Kevin Love is still starting at the 4, but Max Strus and Caleb Martin are still playing sizable roles off the bench. Strus has actually topped 30 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games, and he’s affordable around the industry. If he attracts lots of ownership, though, he’s far from a must.
Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,300 | PG/SG | $4,400 | PG/SG | 26.3 | -1.1 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 17% | -1% | 53% | 27% | 0.68 | 0.12 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 23 | 13.8 | 3.21 | 13.3 | 3.03 | |
| Tyler Herro | $7,000 | PG/SG | $7,300 | SG/SF | 35.3 | 0.5 | 36.4 | -3.9 | 25% | -1% | 56% | 3% | 1.03 | -0.12 | 0.98 | -0.12 | 35 | 35.4 | 5.05 | 33.4 | 4.57 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,600 | SF | $9,700 | SF/PF | 33.3 | -2.7 | 42.0 | 2.6 | 25% | 6% | 64% | 1% | 1.26 | 0.19 | 1.29 | 0.24 | 34 | 45.9 | 5.34 | 46.8 | 4.82 | |
| Kevin Love | $3,900 | PF | $4,200 | PF/C | 20.3 | -0.4 | 20.5 | -3.2 | 18% | 0% | 55% | 9% | 1.01 | -0.14 | 0.95 | -0.19 | 19 | 18.4 | 4.71 | 17.4 | 4.14 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $8,000 | C | $8,100 | C | 35.1 | -0.4 | 40.9 | -1.2 | 25% | -3% | 59% | -2% | 1.17 | -0.02 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 35 | 41.0 | 5.13 | 41.6 | 5.13 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,500 | PG | $5,200 | PG | 32.8 | -13.1 | 28.1 | -10.3 | 17% | -2% | 56% | 19% | 0.86 | 0.05 | 0.84 | -0.02 | 23 | 18.4 | 4.10 | 18.0 | 3.46 | |
| Max Strus | $4,200 | SG/SF | $4,400 | SG/SF | 29.0 | -5.4 | 21.8 | -1.7 | 17% | -6% | 55% | -2% | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 0.10 | 30 | 22.3 | 5.30 | 21.4 | 4.87 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,500 | SF/PF | $5,000 | SF/PF | 29.7 | -0.9 | 21.8 | -4.1 | 14% | -2% | 58% | 21% | 0.73 | -0.12 | 0.74 | -0.10 | 30 | 22.7 | 5.04 | 23.2 | 4.63 | |
| Omer Yurtseven | $3,000 | C | $3,800 | C | 7.5 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 12% | 0% | 44% | 7% | 0.68 | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 5 | 5.4 | 1.79 | 5.4 | 1.43 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,200 | SF/PF | $3,700 | SF | 18.6 | -8.7 | 12.3 | -0.8 | 12% | 5% | 53% | 19% | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 8 | 6.3 | 1.96 | 6.3 | 1.69 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler (DK)
Tournament Targets – Jimmy Butler (FD)
Viable Punts – Max Strus
Detroit Pistons NBA DFS Preview
The Pistons are playing for lottery balls, and they’re 8-point underdogs tonight with the lowest implied team total on the main slate (105). The Heat are still stingy defensively, and they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. That all adds up to a brutal spot for Detroit.
Sunday NBA DFS Notes
Notable Injuries:
Bojan Bogdanovic (Out)
Isaiah Livers (Questionable)
Isaiah Stewart (Out)
Alec Burks (Out)
Hamidou Diallo (Out)
Cade Cunningham (Out)
Detroit Pistons Stats:
Pace of Play: 100.3 (13 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Total: 105.5 (16 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (23 of 30)
MIA Matchup:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 112.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.8% (17 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
Killian Hayes (23.9%) and Jaden Ivey (31%) attract plenty of usage with guys like Bogdanovic, Cunningham, and Burks out, and both are projected to top 30 minutes in this one. I see the merit in looking at both guards in GPPs, but I won’t be going out of my way to force anybody from the Pistons into lineups tonight. Rodney McGruder has been tearing it up of late, but he could see a few less minutes tonight if Isaiah Livers returns. The minutes have been there for them of late, but they’re still not good per-minute producers.
Marvin Bagley is due back tonight, and he could replace Eugene Omoruyi in the starting five. Bagley won’t come cheap at this point, however. James Wiseman continues to start over Jalen Duren at center. Duren is cheap enough on DK ($5,400) to be worth a look in a tournament, but I’m not sure there’s much meat left on the bone with Wiseman.
Pistons Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killian Hayes | $6,600 | PG | $6,600 | PG | 27.2 | 5.7 | 25.2 | 6.2 | 20% | 5% | 44% | 0% | 0.93 | 0.03 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 34 | 33.8 | 5.12 | 33.4 | 5.06 | |
| Jaden Ivey | $6,900 | PG/SG | $6,800 | SG | 30.3 | 5.2 | 29.4 | -4.9 | 25% | 4% | 52% | -14% | 0.97 | -0.28 | 0.93 | -0.33 | 32 | 34.9 | 5.06 | 33.1 | 4.87 | |
| Rodney McGruder | $5,600 | SG/SF | $5,700 | SG | 15.3 | 19.4 | 10.4 | 23.4 | 13% | 4% | 58% | 4% | 0.68 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 30 | 20.6 | 3.68 | 20.0 | 3.51 | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | $5,200 | PF/C | $5,000 | SF | 14.2 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 19% | 0% | 54% | -2% | 0.80 | 0.10 | 0.81 | 0.14 | 26 | 19.7 | 3.79 | 19.2 | 3.85 | |
| James Wiseman | $6,500 | C | $6,500 | C | 17.8 | 10.6 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 21% | 4% | 60% | -14% | 1.05 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 0.13 | 28 | 33.2 | 5.10 | 32.2 | 4.95 | |
| Jalen Duren | $5,400 | C | $6,700 | C | 24.8 | -2.1 | 24.3 | 9.1 | 14% | 10% | 64% | -7% | 0.98 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 22 | 25.4 | 4.71 | 25.3 | 3.78 | |
| Isaiah Livers | $5,500 | SF/PF | $4,900 | PF | 22.4 | -2.5 | 13.1 | -6.1 | 12% | 3% | 55% | -41% | 0.59 | -0.23 | 0.59 | -0.24 | 22 | 14.6 | 2.65 | 14.6 | 2.97 | |
| Cory Joseph | $5,100 | PG | $5,400 | PG | 18.1 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 13.6 | 15% | 4% | 55% | 15% | 0.81 | 0.10 | 0.80 | 0.05 | 28 | 23.2 | 4.56 | 22.7 | 4.20 | |
| R.J. Hampton | $3,900 | PG/SG | $4,900 | PG/SG | 15.0 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 17% | -4% | 57% | 3% | 0.75 | -0.13 | 0.74 | -0.17 | 18 | 13.0 | 3.33 | 12.9 | 2.64 | |
| Buddy Boeheim | $3,400 | SF | $3,500 | SG | 11.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 13% | -1% | 39% | -2% | 0.48 | -0.02 | 0.48 | -0.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Elite Plays – None
Tournament Targets – Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, James Wiseman
Viable Punts – Jalen Duren (DK)
NBA PrizePicks Selection: Jimmy Butler More Than 23.5 Points
Image Credit: Getty Images
Five games on the main slate tonight, starting with the Heat paying a visit to the Pistons in Detroit. Miami lost in a blowout in Chicago last night, but they’re 8-point road favorites over the NBA’s worst team tonight. As always, be sure to read all the way to the end for the top NBA DFS picks and a complimentary PrizePicks pick from Heat-Pistons.
The Grind Down Overview will return on Monday!
NBA DFS: Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
| Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| |
Vegas Total | 220.5 | |
Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -9.5 | Vegas Spread | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 115.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Points +/- | 6.0 | Points +/- | -5.6 | |||||||||
| Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Starters | Gabe Vincent | Tyler Herro | Jimmy Butler | Kevin Love | Bam Adebayo | Projected Starters | Killian Hayes | Jaden Ivey | Rodney McGruder | Eugene Omoruyi | James Wiseman | |
| D EFF (L10) | 17 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 25 | D EFF (L10) | 21 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 10 | |
Miami Heat NBA DFS Preview
The Heat need to win as much as they possibly can down the stretch, so last night’s result was a bit of a surprise. A loss in tonight’s game would be downright calamitous, as the Pistons come into this one with a dismal 16-55 record on the season.
Sunday NBA DFS Notes
Notable Injuries:
Kyle Lowry (Questionable)
Cody Zeller (Doubtful)
Miami Heat Stats:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Total: 115.0 (10 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 49.8% (17 of 30)
DET Matchup:
Pace of Play: 100.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 117.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (23 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
Kyle Lowry is expected to play tonight after resting last night, which will push Gabe Vincent back to the bench. Lowry’s been playing limited minutes, anyway, so I have next to no interest in looking his way tonight. Jimmy Butler (1.25 FP/min) is still attractively priced on DraftKings ($8,600), while Bam Adebayo (1.15) is a little underpriced just about every night. The Pistons’ frontcourt is in shambles these days, which makes Bam a core target tonight, in my view.
Tyler Herro gets plenty of usage (26%), but his floor is low if his shots aren’t falling. There’s a good chance those shots will be falling tonight against the Pistons’ porous defense, so I’ll gladly look Herro’s way in all formats here. Kevin Love is still starting at the 4, but Max Strus and Caleb Martin are still playing sizable roles off the bench. Strus has actually topped 30 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games, and he’s affordable around the industry. If he attracts lots of ownership, though, he’s far from a must.
Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,300 | PG/SG | $4,400 | PG/SG | 26.3 | -1.1 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 17% | -1% | 53% | 27% | 0.68 | 0.12 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 23 | 13.8 | 3.21 | 13.3 | 3.03 | |
| Tyler Herro | $7,000 | PG/SG | $7,300 | SG/SF | 35.3 | 0.5 | 36.4 | -3.9 | 25% | -1% | 56% | 3% | 1.03 | -0.12 | 0.98 | -0.12 | 35 | 35.4 | 5.05 | 33.4 | 4.57 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,600 | SF | $9,700 | SF/PF | 33.3 | -2.7 | 42.0 | 2.6 | 25% | 6% | 64% | 1% | 1.26 | 0.19 | 1.29 | 0.24 | 34 | 45.9 | 5.34 | 46.8 | 4.82 | |
| Kevin Love | $3,900 | PF | $4,200 | PF/C | 20.3 | -0.4 | 20.5 | -3.2 | 18% | 0% | 55% | 9% | 1.01 | -0.14 | 0.95 | -0.19 | 19 | 18.4 | 4.71 | 17.4 | 4.14 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $8,000 | C | $8,100 | C | 35.1 | -0.4 | 40.9 | -1.2 | 25% | -3% | 59% | -2% | 1.17 | -0.02 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 35 | 41.0 | 5.13 | 41.6 | 5.13 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,500 | PG | $5,200 | PG | 32.8 | -13.1 | 28.1 | -10.3 | 17% | -2% | 56% | 19% | 0.86 | 0.05 | 0.84 | -0.02 | 23 | 18.4 | 4.10 | 18.0 | 3.46 | |
| Max Strus | $4,200 | SG/SF | $4,400 | SG/SF | 29.0 | -5.4 | 21.8 | -1.7 | 17% | -6% | 55% | -2% | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 0.10 | 30 | 22.3 | 5.30 | 21.4 | 4.87 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,500 | SF/PF | $5,000 | SF/PF | 29.7 | -0.9 | 21.8 | -4.1 | 14% | -2% | 58% | 21% | 0.73 | -0.12 | 0.74 | -0.10 | 30 | 22.7 | 5.04 | 23.2 | 4.63 | |
| Omer Yurtseven | $3,000 | C | $3,800 | C | 7.5 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 12% | 0% | 44% | 7% | 0.68 | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 5 | 5.4 | 1.79 | 5.4 | 1.43 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,200 | SF/PF | $3,700 | SF | 18.6 | -8.7 | 12.3 | -0.8 | 12% | 5% | 53% | 19% | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 8 | 6.3 | 1.96 | 6.3 | 1.69 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler (DK)
Tournament Targets – Jimmy Butler (FD)
Viable Punts – Max Strus
Detroit Pistons NBA DFS Preview
The Pistons are playing for lottery balls, and they’re 8-point underdogs tonight with the lowest implied team total on the main slate (105). The Heat are still stingy defensively, and they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. That all adds up to a brutal spot for Detroit.
Sunday NBA DFS Notes
Notable Injuries:
Bojan Bogdanovic (Out)
Isaiah Livers (Questionable)
Isaiah Stewart (Out)
Alec Burks (Out)
Hamidou Diallo (Out)
Cade Cunningham (Out)
Detroit Pistons Stats:
Pace of Play: 100.3 (13 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Total: 105.5 (16 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (23 of 30)
MIA Matchup:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 112.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.8% (17 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
Killian Hayes (23.9%) and Jaden Ivey (31%) attract plenty of usage with guys like Bogdanovic, Cunningham, and Burks out, and both are projected to top 30 minutes in this one. I see the merit in looking at both guards in GPPs, but I won’t be going out of my way to force anybody from the Pistons into lineups tonight. Rodney McGruder has been tearing it up of late, but he could see a few less minutes tonight if Isaiah Livers returns. The minutes have been there for them of late, but they’re still not good per-minute producers.
Marvin Bagley is due back tonight, and he could replace Eugene Omoruyi in the starting five. Bagley won’t come cheap at this point, however. James Wiseman continues to start over Jalen Duren at center. Duren is cheap enough on DK ($5,400) to be worth a look in a tournament, but I’m not sure there’s much meat left on the bone with Wiseman.
Pistons Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killian Hayes | $6,600 | PG | $6,600 | PG | 27.2 | 5.7 | 25.2 | 6.2 | 20% | 5% | 44% | 0% | 0.93 | 0.03 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 34 | 33.8 | 5.12 | 33.4 | 5.06 | |
| Jaden Ivey | $6,900 | PG/SG | $6,800 | SG | 30.3 | 5.2 | 29.4 | -4.9 | 25% | 4% | 52% | -14% | 0.97 | -0.28 | 0.93 | -0.33 | 32 | 34.9 | 5.06 | 33.1 | 4.87 | |
| Rodney McGruder | $5,600 | SG/SF | $5,700 | SG | 15.3 | 19.4 | 10.4 | 23.4 | 13% | 4% | 58% | 4% | 0.68 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 30 | 20.6 | 3.68 | 20.0 | 3.51 | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | $5,200 | PF/C | $5,000 | SF | 14.2 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 19% | 0% | 54% | -2% | 0.80 | 0.10 | 0.81 | 0.14 | 26 | 19.7 | 3.79 | 19.2 | 3.85 | |
| James Wiseman | $6,500 | C | $6,500 | C | 17.8 | 10.6 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 21% | 4% | 60% | -14% | 1.05 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 0.13 | 28 | 33.2 | 5.10 | 32.2 | 4.95 | |
| Jalen Duren | $5,400 | C | $6,700 | C | 24.8 | -2.1 | 24.3 | 9.1 | 14% | 10% | 64% | -7% | 0.98 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 22 | 25.4 | 4.71 | 25.3 | 3.78 | |
| Isaiah Livers | $5,500 | SF/PF | $4,900 | PF | 22.4 | -2.5 | 13.1 | -6.1 | 12% | 3% | 55% | -41% | 0.59 | -0.23 | 0.59 | -0.24 | 22 | 14.6 | 2.65 | 14.6 | 2.97 | |
| Cory Joseph | $5,100 | PG | $5,400 | PG | 18.1 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 13.6 | 15% | 4% | 55% | 15% | 0.81 | 0.10 | 0.80 | 0.05 | 28 | 23.2 | 4.56 | 22.7 | 4.20 | |
| R.J. Hampton | $3,900 | PG/SG | $4,900 | PG/SG | 15.0 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 17% | -4% | 57% | 3% | 0.75 | -0.13 | 0.74 | -0.17 | 18 | 13.0 | 3.33 | 12.9 | 2.64 | |
| Buddy Boeheim | $3,400 | SF | $3,500 | SG | 11.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 13% | -1% | 39% | -2% | 0.48 | -0.02 | 0.48 | -0.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Elite Plays – None
Tournament Targets – Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, James Wiseman
Viable Punts – Jalen Duren (DK)