NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 5th - Bucks at Magic

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Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		225.5					Vegas Total		225.5
			Vegas Spread		-9.5					Vegas Spread		9.5
			Implied Team Total		117.5					Implied Team Total		108.0
			Points +/-		4.8					Points +/-		0.2
Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	Grayson Allen	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	Markelle Fultz	Franz Wagner	Paolo Banchero	Bol Bol	Mo Bamba
D EFF	25	5	19	14	24		D EFF	3	14	5	7	9

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries:

Brook Lopez (Questionable)
Grayson Allen (Questionable)
MarJon Beauchamp (Out)
Serge Ibaka (Out)
Joe Ingles (Out)

Milwaukee Bucks Stats:
Pace of Play: 100.1 (16 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Total: 117.5 (3 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 52.5% (2 of 30)

ORL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 115.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 50.4% (11 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

We’ve got another 8 games on the NBA schedule for Monday, and we’ll tip things off with the Bucks battling the Magic in Orlando. The Bucks decided to stage a mass rest event on Saturday in Charlotte, but still managed to come away with a pretty easy win because the Hornets are a dreadful basketballing outfit. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton are back in the lineup tonight, though Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen are questionable. Milwaukee is favored by 9.5 points tonight in Orlando.

The Hornets were woeful, but the Magic might be worse, at least defensively. Giannis has posted his usual gaudy numbers so far this season (39.4% usage, 1.71 FP/min), though the usage figures to come down with Middleton now back healthy. Antetokounmpo doesn’t pop as an elite value in the $12,000 range tonight, but I see no reason to believe we can’t still get plenty of bang for our buck (pun VERY intended) against Orlando.

Holiday (1.22 FP/min) has played well this season, but he’s another guy that should lose some usage with Middleton back. I still think a mid-$7,000s salary for Jrue is playable in any tournaments if you’re shopping in that price range, especially at what should be very limited ownership. Middleton looked good in a 27-minute debut against the Lakers on Friday, but he’s priced appropriately and likely won’t go flying past 30 minutes in this one.

With the 3 stars back, I don’t think the Allen news moves the needle much one way or the other. Perhaps some minutes would open up for guys like Jevon Carter or Pat Connaughton if he sits, but both feel like major reaches on a slate like this. Bobby Portis, on the other hand, would presumably slide into the starting unit if Lopez takes the night off. I wouldn’t mind paying for Portis in GPPs in that scenario. Lopez himself is having a stellar season (1.03 FP/min), but the asking price is steep.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Jrue Holiday	$7,400	PG	$7,700	PG/SG	32.3	4.6	39.9	9.3	25%	0%	55%	8%	1.24	0.10	1.21	0.12		34	37.4	5.05	36.4	4.73
Grayson Allen	$4,800	SG/SF	$4,600	SG/SF	27.0	0.9	21.7	-3.0	15%	-1%	65%	-8%	0.80	-0.13	0.78	-0.14		28	19.7	4.10	19.0	4.12
Khris Middleton	$7,200	SF	$7,000	SF/SG	26.6	0.0	31.5	0.0	20%	0%	72%	0%	1.18	0.00	1.13	0.00		26	29.2	4.06	28.1	4.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	$11,900	PF/C	$11,800	PF/SF	32.9	3.0	57.3	4.2	38%	1%	59%	8%	1.74	-0.03	1.69	-0.04		34	55.6	4.67	54.5	4.62
Brook Lopez	$6,500	C	$6,800	C	31.1	1.6	32.2	-1.9	18%	-3%	63%	-3%	1.04	-0.11	1.09	-0.10		32	28.8	4.44	29.9	4.40
Bobby Portis	$6,800	PF/C	$6,100	PF/C	26.9	-1.0	32.6	1.9	21%	3%	55%	-2%	1.21	0.12	1.16	0.09		22	25.4	3.73	24.8	4.07
Jevon Carter	$4,100	PG/SG	$4,600	PG/SG	27.2	-0.6	21.8	-4.9	14%	-3%	56%	-5%	0.80	-0.17	0.82	-0.16		20	13.6	3.31	13.4	2.92
Pat Connaughton	$3,200	SG/SF	$3,900	SF/PF	17.1	3.5	13.2	2.8	19%	3%	44%	0%	0.77	0.00	0.77	-0.03		18	13.3	4.17	13.1	3.35
Wesley Matthews	$3,000	SG/SF	$3,500	SG	15.5	-3.9	8.1	-5.1	10%	-3%	46%	-20%	0.52	-0.27	0.53	-0.28		12	5.7	1.91	5.8	1.65
George Hill	$3,100	PG	$3,500	PG	20.4	-5.4	12.2	-2.4	11%	3%	54%	6%	0.60	0.06	0.59	0.04		14	8.1	2.60	7.9	2.26

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Tournament Targets – Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis (if Lopez is out)

Viable Punts – None

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Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries:

Jalen Suggs (Out)
Mo Bamba (Questionable)
Wendell Carter Jr. (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Gary Harris (Out)
Chuma Okeke (Out)

Orlando Magic Stats:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Total: 108.0 (14 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 50.4% (11 of 30)

MIL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 100.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 107.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 52.5% (2 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

The Magic have a tall task in front of them tonight with the Bucks in town. Orlando’s a 10-point underdog on their home floor, and their 108.75 total is the third-lowest of the slate.

The Magic are still without a handful of rotation pieces, while Mo Bamba is again questionable with his ongoing back issue. Bamba missing another game would likely clear the way for another Moe Wagner start. He’s been passable in that role, but no longer a screaming value up in the $5,000 range around the industry. Franz Wagner (27.6% usage, 0.96 FP/min) has played quite well with Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter out of the lineup, though some recent struggles have caused his salaries to dip back into the $6,000 range. I don’t mind the buy low opportunity on Franz here, especially in GPPs.

Paolo Banchero (30% usage) is the headliner for this team, but he’s another guy in shaky form of late. $7,600 on both sites is cheaper than we’re used to paying for the star rookie, and the Magic seem willing to still get him some run even in blowout situations. That makes him feel a bit safer in the event this game gets out of hand early.

Markelle Fultz (0.96 FP/min) has been solid in 3 games since his return. The Magic have been weird about his minutes, but you can still get there at $4,800 on FD. Cole Anthony (1.17 FPPM) fills it up while he’s out there, but minutes have been harder to come by for him in his current bench role. Bol Bol has been outstanding for most of the campaign, but he’s priced efficiently these days.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Markelle Fultz	$5,300	PG	$4,800	PG/SG	21.7	0.0	20.3	0.0	22%	0%	47%	0%	0.94	0.00	0.95	0.00		24	23.8	4.48	24.3	5.05
Franz Wagner	$6,100	SG	$6,300	SF/SG	33.0	-2.1	31.2	-7.5	25%	1%	58%	-6%	0.94	-0.18	0.92	-0.20		31	27.8	4.56	26.9	4.27
Paolo Banchero	$7,600	SF/PF	$7,600	PF/SF	34.5	-1.4	37.4	-9.7	28%	-4%	55%	-1%	1.08	-0.25	1.06	-0.25		34	36.8	4.84	35.9	4.72
Bol Bol	$6,400	PF/C	$6,500	C	27.0	-1.1	28.5	-6.0	19%	-3%	67%	7%	1.06	-0.19	1.08	-0.17		26	25.3	3.96	25.4	3.91
Mo Bamba	$6,000	C	$5,200	C	18.7		18.0		18%		59%		0.96		0.96			26	23.4	3.91	23.7	4.56
Cole Anthony	$5,700	PG/SG	$5,900	PG/SG	28.3	-2.8	29.9	-1.4	22%	-3%	57%	8%	1.06	0.06	1.06	0.09		24	22.9	4.01	22.0	3.73
Terrence Ross	$4,000	SG/SF	$4,000	SG/SF	24.5	-1.7	16.0	-0.4	17%	1%	56%	13%	0.65	0.03	0.64	0.02		22	12.1	3.03	11.5	2.88
Caleb Houstan	$3,300	SF/PF	$3,800	SF	18.7	1.0	9.6	3.1	10%	2%	53%	0%	0.51	0.13	0.49	0.13		17	9.9	3.00	9.6	2.52
Moe Wagner	$4,800	PF/C	$4,300	PF	23.0	4.8	20.1	3.3	20%	-1%	52%	2%	0.87	-0.03	0.85	-0.02		22	20.9	4.36	20.1	4.67
Admiral Schofield	$3,100	PF	$3,800	SF	11.8	3.2	7.3	3.6	13%	7%	60%	15%	0.62	0.11	0.59	0.07			0.0		0.0

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – Paolo Banchero

Tournament Targets – Franz Wagner

Viable Punts – Markelle Fultz