NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 5th - Bucks at Magic

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Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Orlando Magic
Vegas Total 225.5 Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Implied Team Total 117.5 Implied Team Total 108.0
Points +/- 4.8 Points +/- 0.2
Position PG SG SF PF C Position PG SG SF PF C
Projected Starters Jrue Holiday Grayson Allen Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Brook Lopez Projected Starters Markelle Fultz Franz Wagner Paolo Banchero Bol Bol Mo Bamba
D EFF 25 5 19 14 24 D EFF 3 14 5 7 9

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries:

Brook Lopez (Questionable)
Grayson Allen (Questionable)
MarJon Beauchamp (Out)
Serge Ibaka (Out)
Joe Ingles (Out)

Milwaukee Bucks Stats:
Pace of Play: 100.1 (16 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 111.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Total: 117.5 (3 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 52.5% (2 of 30)

ORL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 115.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 50.4% (11 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

We’ve got another 8 games on the NBA schedule for Monday, and we’ll tip things off with the Bucks battling the Magic in Orlando. The Bucks decided to stage a mass rest event on Saturday in Charlotte, but still managed to come away with a pretty easy win because the Hornets are a dreadful basketballing outfit. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton are back in the lineup tonight, though Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen are questionable. Milwaukee is favored by 9.5 points tonight in Orlando.

The Hornets were woeful, but the Magic might be worse, at least defensively. Giannis has posted his usual gaudy numbers so far this season (39.4% usage, 1.71 FP/min), though the usage figures to come down with Middleton now back healthy. Antetokounmpo doesn’t pop as an elite value in the $12,000 range tonight, but I see no reason to believe we can’t still get plenty of bang for our buck (pun VERY intended) against Orlando.

Holiday (1.22 FP/min) has played well this season, but he’s another guy that should lose some usage with Middleton back. I still think a mid-$7,000s salary for Jrue is playable in any tournaments if you’re shopping in that price range, especially at what should be very limited ownership. Middleton looked good in a 27-minute debut against the Lakers on Friday, but he’s priced appropriately and likely won’t go flying past 30 minutes in this one.

With the 3 stars back, I don’t think the Allen news moves the needle much one way or the other. Perhaps some minutes would open up for guys like Jevon Carter or Pat Connaughton if he sits, but both feel like major reaches on a slate like this. Bobby Portis, on the other hand, would presumably slide into the starting unit if Lopez takes the night off. I wouldn’t mind paying for Portis in GPPs in that scenario. Lopez himself is having a stellar season (1.03 FP/min), but the asking price is steep.

Player DK POS FD POS MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- TS% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Jrue Holiday $7,400 PG $7,700 PG/SG 32.3 4.6 39.9 9.3 25% 0% 55% 8% 1.24 0.10 1.21 0.12 34 37.4 5.05 36.4 4.73
Grayson Allen $4,800 SG/SF $4,600 SG/SF 27.0 0.9 21.7 -3.0 15% -1% 65% -8% 0.80 -0.13 0.78 -0.14 28 19.7 4.10 19.0 4.12
Khris Middleton $7,200 SF $7,000 SF/SG 26.6 0.0 31.5 0.0 20% 0% 72% 0% 1.18 0.00 1.13 0.00 26 29.2 4.06 28.1 4.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,900 PF/C $11,800 PF/SF 32.9 3.0 57.3 4.2 38% 1% 59% 8% 1.74 -0.03 1.69 -0.04 34 55.6 4.67 54.5 4.62
Brook Lopez $6,500 C $6,800 C 31.1 1.6 32.2 -1.9 18% -3% 63% -3% 1.04 -0.11 1.09 -0.10 32 28.8 4.44 29.9 4.40
Bobby Portis $6,800 PF/C $6,100 PF/C 26.9 -1.0 32.6 1.9 21% 3% 55% -2% 1.21 0.12 1.16 0.09 22 25.4 3.73 24.8 4.07
Jevon Carter $4,100 PG/SG $4,600 PG/SG 27.2 -0.6 21.8 -4.9 14% -3% 56% -5% 0.80 -0.17 0.82 -0.16 20 13.6 3.31 13.4 2.92
Pat Connaughton $3,200 SG/SF $3,900 SF/PF 17.1 3.5 13.2 2.8 19% 3% 44% 0% 0.77 0.00 0.77 -0.03 18 13.3 4.17 13.1 3.35
Wesley Matthews $3,000 SG/SF $3,500 SG 15.5 -3.9 8.1 -5.1 10% -3% 46% -20% 0.52 -0.27 0.53 -0.28 12 5.7 1.91 5.8 1.65
George Hill $3,100 PG $3,500 PG 20.4 -5.4 12.2 -2.4 11% 3% 54% 6% 0.60 0.06 0.59 0.04 14 8.1 2.60 7.9 2.26

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite PlaysGiannis Antetokounmpo

Tournament TargetsJrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis (if Lopez is out)

Viable Punts – None


Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries:

Jalen Suggs (Out)
Mo Bamba (Questionable)
Wendell Carter Jr. (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Gary Harris (Out)
Chuma Okeke (Out)

Orlando Magic Stats:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Total: 108.0 (14 of 16)
Rebounding Rate: 50.4% (11 of 30)

MIL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 100.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 107.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 52.5% (2 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

The Magic have a tall task in front of them tonight with the Bucks in town. Orlando’s a 10-point underdog on their home floor, and their 108.75 total is the third-lowest of the slate.

The Magic are still without a handful of rotation pieces, while Mo Bamba is again questionable with his ongoing back issue. Bamba missing another game would likely clear the way for another Moe Wagner start. He’s been passable in that role, but no longer a screaming value up in the $5,000 range around the industry. Franz Wagner (27.6% usage, 0.96 FP/min) has played quite well with Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter out of the lineup, though some recent struggles have caused his salaries to dip back into the $6,000 range. I don’t mind the buy low opportunity on Franz here, especially in GPPs.

Paolo Banchero (30% usage) is the headliner for this team, but he’s another guy in shaky form of late. $7,600 on both sites is cheaper than we’re used to paying for the star rookie, and the Magic seem willing to still get him some run even in blowout situations. That makes him feel a bit safer in the event this game gets out of hand early.

Markelle Fultz (0.96 FP/min) has been solid in 3 games since his return. The Magic have been weird about his minutes, but you can still get there at $4,800 on FD. Cole Anthony (1.17 FPPM) fills it up while he’s out there, but minutes have been harder to come by for him in his current bench role. Bol Bol has been outstanding for most of the campaign, but he’s priced efficiently these days.

Player DK POS FD POS MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- TS% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Markelle Fultz $5,300 PG $4,800 PG/SG 21.7 0.0 20.3 0.0 22% 0% 47% 0% 0.94 0.00 0.95 0.00 24 23.8 4.48 24.3 5.05
Franz Wagner $6,100 SG $6,300 SF/SG 33.0 -2.1 31.2 -7.5 25% 1% 58% -6% 0.94 -0.18 0.92 -0.20 31 27.8 4.56 26.9 4.27
Paolo Banchero $7,600 SF/PF $7,600 PF/SF 34.5 -1.4 37.4 -9.7 28% -4% 55% -1% 1.08 -0.25 1.06 -0.25 34 36.8 4.84 35.9 4.72
Bol Bol $6,400 PF/C $6,500 C 27.0 -1.1 28.5 -6.0 19% -3% 67% 7% 1.06 -0.19 1.08 -0.17 26 25.3 3.96 25.4 3.91
Mo Bamba $6,000 C $5,200 C 18.7 18.0 18% 59% 0.96 0.96 26 23.4 3.91 23.7 4.56
Cole Anthony $5,700 PG/SG $5,900 PG/SG 28.3 -2.8 29.9 -1.4 22% -3% 57% 8% 1.06 0.06 1.06 0.09 24 22.9 4.01 22.0 3.73
Terrence Ross $4,000 SG/SF $4,000 SG/SF 24.5 -1.7 16.0 -0.4 17% 1% 56% 13% 0.65 0.03 0.64 0.02 22 12.1 3.03 11.5 2.88
Caleb Houstan $3,300 SF/PF $3,800 SF 18.7 1.0 9.6 3.1 10% 2% 53% 0% 0.51 0.13 0.49 0.13 17 9.9 3.00 9.6 2.52
Moe Wagner $4,800 PF/C $4,300 PF 23.0 4.8 20.1 3.3 20% -1% 52% 2% 0.87 -0.03 0.85 -0.02 22 20.9 4.36 20.1 4.67
Admiral Schofield $3,100 PF $3,800 SF 11.8 3.2 7.3 3.6 13% 7% 60% 15% 0.62 0.11 0.59 0.07 0.0 0.0

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite PlaysPaolo Banchero

Tournament TargetsFranz Wagner

Viable PuntsMarkelle Fultz

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About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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