NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 14th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Boston Celtics
Vegas Total 209.5 Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Implied Team Total 101.3 Implied Team Total 108.3
Pace Projection +/- -2.6 Pace Projection +/- -3.5
Projected Starters Darren Collison Wesley Matthews Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Al Horford Aron Baynes
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 2 8 7 11 19 DEFF 13 10 9 18 6
DvsA 7 8 8 7 7 DvsA 1 8 9 15 4

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Probable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 108.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.8 (7 of 8)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 109.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 110.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 47.9 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 99.8 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Darren Collison $6,000 $4,800 $9,300 26.8 -9.5 28.2 -8.7 0.95 19.5% 2 7 5
Wesley Matthews $3,800 $4,300 $8,200 20.4 -10.6 30.3 -7.1 0.67 16.7% 8 8 6
Bojan Bogdanovic $6,400 $5,600 $11,500 26.9 -6.0 31.8 -2.5 0.85 20.3% 7 8 7
Thaddeus Young $5,400 $5,700 $11,000 28.4 0.2 30.7 -1.0 0.92 16.7% 11 7 10
Myles Turner $7,000 $6,000 $11,900 33.4 -7.3 28.6 -5.0 1.17 17.7% 19 7 7
Domantas Sabonis $7,100 $6,400 $12,600 30.4 1.4 24.8 2.0 1.23 21.1% N/A 12 N/A
Tyreke Evans $4,200 $4,500 $8,500 18.9 5.2 20.3 5.9 0.93 24.1% N/A 4 N/A
Cory Joseph $4,300 $4,200 $8,200 19.6 5.6 25.2 -0.5 0.78 14.9% N/A 7 N/A

Happy Sunday. The Pacers have the lowest implied team total of any of the 8 teams taking the floor on Sunday (101.3 points) and they’re 7-point underdogs in Boston. This game’s total of 209.5 points is the lowest on the slate, which makes sense considering these are two of the best defensive teams in the league.

The Celtics are without Marcus Smart for this series, which means their best wing defender will be sidelined. Darren Collison has been dealing with a groin injury, but he’s had enough time off to where I’d imagine he’ll play close to a normal number of minutes here. Point guard is top-heavy on this slate, and Collison is about as cheap as I’d go without feeling awful about my lineup, especially for $4,800 on DK. Boston is top-10 defensively against point guards on the season, but Collison is a reasonable value. Cory Joseph is a cheap pivot for tournaments, but the combination of low floor/limited upside isn’t great.

The Celtics have been excellent defensively in terms of limiting their opponents’ 3-point looks, which obviously hampers guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Wesley Matthews. The absence of Smart helps Indiana in this regard, though, so I think Bogdanovic in particular is viable here. He’s a little overpriced on FanDuel, but small forward gets messy in a hurry. Bogdanovic’s 24.5% usage rate ranks second on the team with Victor Oladipo off the floor this season. Tyreke Evans is the ultimate GPP play. He has enough upside to turn the slate on its head, but his relatively small role and tough matchup make that fairly unlikely.

Boston is 19th in defensive efficiency against centers over the last 10 games, so the best micro matchup here belongs to Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis 1.28 FP/min on the season leads Indiana, but I’m more likely to side with Turner here given his minutes advantage. Turner is also cheaper than Sabonis around the industry, which makes the decision fairly easy. Sabonis is plenty viable in tournaments, as I imagine he’ll go pretty overlooked for a 4-game slate. Thaddeus Young always feels like more of a cash game target than a GPP option, especially with the Pacers near full strength.

Elite PlaysMyles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD)

Secondary PlaysBojan Bogdanovic (DK), Darren Collison, Domantas Sabonis (GPP)

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Al Horford (Probable)
Marcus Smart (Out)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 110.2 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.3 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.2 (6 of 8)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 109.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 110.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 48.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 99.0 (21 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,800 $8,100 $14,700 43.6 -9.7 33.0 -1.5 1.32 29.1% 13 1 13
Jaylen Brown $4,800 $4,400 $8,900 22.7 0.4 25.9 -3.9 0.88 19.8% 10 8 15
Jayson Tatum $6,900 $5,700 $11,200 30.0 -4.0 31.1 -4.7 0.96 20.4% 9 9 27
Al Horford $7,800 $6,500 $12,200 33.0 2.0 29.0 0.3 1.14 19.0% 18 15 8
Aron Baynes $4,800 $4,200 $8,200 14.8 11.0 16.1 5.7 0.92 13.8% 6 4 2
Gordon Hayward $6,400 $5,200 $10,000 24.1 11.3 25.9 6.0 0.93 18.7% N/A 9 N/A
Terry Rozier $4,100 $4,900 $9,900 20.7 -3.6 22.7 -3.7 0.91 19.1% N/A 13 N/A
Marcus Morris $4,400 $4,200 $8,500 25.0 0.4 27.9 -0.6 0.89 19.1% N/A 8 N/A

The Celtics’ implied team total of 108.3 points today is the fourth-lowest on the slate. The absence of Smart opens up a starting spot, and Jaylen Brown seems to be the most likely candidate to fill it. Kyrie Irving owns a team-best 27.4% usage rate with Smart off the floor this season alongside an average of 1.38 FPPM. Kyrie is a guy I feel comfortable rostering in any matchup, and his price tag around the industry looks low given what his role will be for this team offensively in the playoffs. He could easily fly under the radar given the expected game environment here, which makes Irving one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate. At his price he’s also in play for cash.

There isn’t a ton of value on this slate, so I imagine Brown will be fairly popular. He’s averaged 0.91 FP/min on the season with Smart off the floor, and if we can get a minimum of 26 minutes out of him here it’s hard not to like him as a cheap option in all formats. The guard/forward eligibility on DraftKings is a nice bonus. Terry Rozier could have a bigger role, too, but he’s never a guy I’m dying to roster, especially considering he’s typically overpriced for his role when Irving is healthy.

Gordon Hayward is a guy I could see benefiting from the absence of Smart, as well, and he’s averaged 0.94 FPPM in those situations this season. Indiana does rank ninth in defensive efficiency against small forwards, but $5,200 is cheap enough on DraftKings to get me interested. Marcus Morris looks a little underpriced around the industry given his sizable role here, while Jayson Tatum is viable as a last piece type of option.

Al Horford and Aron Baynes have been starting together, and this is a matchup that seems to suit Baynes pretty well. Indiana likes to run big lineups, and Baynes is averaging 1.07 FPPM on the year with Smart off the floor. The Pacers are sixth in the league in defensive rating against centers, but at Baynes’ price point he doesn’t need to have a monster game in order to pay off. Assuming he’s still starting, I like him as a value quite a bit. I have less interest in Horford, who happens to be one of the few players priced near his ceiling on this slate. As always, you can roll him out there in tournaments.

Elite PlaysKyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward (DK)

Secondary PlaysAl Horford, Aron Baynes, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.


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