NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 10th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks – 3:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Implied Team Total Implied Team Total
Pace Projection +/- -0.5 Pace Projection +/- -0.5
Projected Starters Damian Lillard CJ McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Jusuf Nurkic Projected Starters Luka Doncic Jalen Brunson Tim Hardaway Dorian Finney-Smith Maxi Kleber
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 20 24 3 20 11 DEFF 8 10 15 19 10
DvsA 29 17 12 12 5 DvsA 5 17 5 9 26

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

None

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 113.3 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Damian Lillard $10,000 $8,800 $16,200 43.4 6.2 35.3 0.8 1.23 29.4% 20 29 18
CJ McCollum $7,500 $6,800 $12,500 32.3 16.8 34.1 1.1 0.95 25.0% 24 17 22
Maurice Harkless $3,700 $3,600 $7,100 16.3 -2.1 21.4 0.1 0.76 11.4% 3 12
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,100 $4,500 $8,800 23.8 -2.0 29.2 -6.3 0.81 12.2% 20 12 17
Jusuf Nurkic $8,700 $7,700 $14,200 37.9 -1.1 27.4 2.5 1.38 22.3% 11 5 2
Jake Layman $4,700 $3,900 $8,100 14.0 11.1 17.7 11.2 0.79 15.1% N/A 12 N/A
Rodney Hood $4,100 $3,700 $7,300 20.1 -2.2 27.4 1.0 0.73 18.0% N/A 17 N/A
Evan Turner $3,800 $3,600 $6,700 19.7 -7.6 24.0 -5.1 0.82 17.1% N/A 17 N/A

Happy Sunday. We’ve got 5 games on the NBA schedule today, but the sites have split their slates up differently. DraftKings has a 2-game early slate and a 3-game main slate, while FanDuel has a 2-game early slate, a 2-game main slate and an all-day option with all 5 contests. FantasyDraft has the all-day option, too.

The early docket kicks off with the Blazers visiting the Mavericks. Portland is a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a total around 220 points. Dallas has really struggled defensively against opposing backcourts, as they rank 20th in defensive rating against point guards and 24th against shooting guards. That plays right into the hands of the Blazers, whose offense revolves around Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Lillard leads the team with a usage rate of 31.8%, while McCollum isn’t far behind at 27.8%. McCollum has actually been in the sharper form of late, as he’s scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and 4 of his last 6 overall. Both guys are strong options today, but we actually have quite a few other worthwhile spend-ups on the 2-game early slate. Lillard is elite in GPPs, while McCollum makes sense in cash games.

Evan Turner has seen his minutes trending in the wrong direction. He has cracked 20 just once in his last 4 games, which gives him plenty of risk. Rodney Hood played 25 minutes in his Blazers debut the other night. We know Hood is scoring dependent, but I don’t hate him as a punt play if he’s going to see that kind of playing time on a nightly basis. He’s cheap enough to take shots on. Seth Curry and Moe Harkless are on the fringes of the rotation, so the only other wing worth a mention is Jake Layman. Layman has been playing around 30 minutes of late and he’s actually flashed some ceiling. He’s a decent cheap flier in GPPs on a short slate.

This is a #RevengeGame for Al-Farouq Aminu, but he’s another guy who has seen his playing time dwindle of late. You can take a chance on AFA in a tournament and hope he out-plays Layman, but he’s tough to love with his 13.7% usage, anyway. The last Blazer worth a mention is Jusuf Nurkic, who should really feast on this Dallas frontline. The Mavs lost quite a bit of beef up front when they traded DeAndre Jordan. Nurk is averaging a team-high 1.35 FP/min on the season, and he should be able to have his way with the likes of Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell down low. His minutes are always concerning, but he carries some upside in this spot.

Elite PlaysDamian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary PlaysJusuf Nurkic (cash), Jake Layman, Rodney Hood


Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

None

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 109.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Luka Doncic $9,800 $9,200 $16,700 38.3 5.3 32.0 -0.6 1.20 27.6% 8 5 20
Jalen Brunson $4,900 $4,000 $7,600 13.1 8.3 17.7 12.3 0.74 18.6% 10 17 24
Tim Hardaway $5,800 $5,100 $10,000 28.1 -7.0 32.3 -5.5 0.87 24.5% 15 5 4
Dorian Finney-Smith $4,800 $4,100 $8,500 18.0 2.5 24.8 5.3 0.73 12.1% 19 9 6
Maxi Kleber $5,200 $4,300 $8,300 16.9 6.9 19.5 7.7 0.87 12.5% 10 26 2
Dwight Powell $5,800 $4,800 $9,200 17.8 9.1 16.9 7.0 1.05 17.1% N/A 9 N/A
Trey Burke $5,200 $3,700 $7,100 19.7 -1.6 20.6 -5.0 0.96 26.2% N/A 17 N/A
Devin Harris $3,500 $3,500 $6,900 11.8 1.7 15.1 3.5 0.78 17.6% N/A 9 N/A

The Mavs are a team in transition. They traded 4 regular rotation guys ahead of the deadline, so this is basically the Luka Doncic Show now. Luka has a hefty 37.9% usage rate on the season with Jordan, Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and J.J. Barea off the floor, and he’s averaging 1.42 FP/min in those minutes. He’s coming off a sluggish game against the Bucks, and the micro matchup with the Blazers today isn’t exactly ideal. Still, it’s tough to fade a guy that dominates the ball the way Doncic does. I slightly prefer Doncic to Lillard at their similar price points, but you probably can’t go wrong either way.

Rick Carlisle ran a weird rotation last time out, with no starter logging more than 27 minutes. Jalen Brunson started and played 24 minutes, while Trey Burke logged 27 off the bench. Burke out-played him badly, finishing with 18 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists to Brunson’s 5 points, 3 boards and 3 assists. I would imagine Burke will have free reign with the second unit considering the lack of other high-usage options on the roster, so in my eyes he looks like the stronger option than Brunson. Burke looks too priced up on FanDuel, but he’s awfully tempting at $3,700 on DK.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has shot 16 and 12 shots in his first 2 games as a Maverick, and he’s another guy that should have to step up offensively with Dallas so short on options. THJ is pretty dependent on scoring, but he still looks too cheap on DraftKings at $5,100. One problem is that Carlisle seemingly wants to play everybody. Ryan Broekhoff nearly logged 20 minutes the other night, while Justin Jackson may factor into things moving forward. Hardaway is probably best suited in GPPs.

Dorian Finney-Smith is a painful roster, but he’s shown some rebounding potential and he can get there if he’s knocking down his threes. He should be one of the safer options on the team when it comes to minutes, so I don’t hate him if you’re shopping in his price range. Maxi Kleber has been starting in the middle, but Dwight Powell has been slightly better as the backup. Powell has been the far better fantasy producer this season (1.10 FP/min to Kleber’s 0.77), but I think they’re both viable on this slate. Dallas will need some size in order to deal with Nurkic on the other side.

Elite PlaysLuka Doncic, Trey Burke (DK)

Secondary PlaysTim Hardaway Jr., Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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