NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 1st - Mavericks at Pistons

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Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		221.5					Vegas Total		221.5
			Vegas Spread		-8.0					Vegas Spread		8.0
			Implied Team Total		114.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Points +/-		5.3					Points +/-		-2.3
Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Projected Starters	Luka Doncic	Spencer Dinwiddie	Tim Hardaway	Dorian Finney-Smith	Dwight Powell		Projected Starters	Killian Hayes	Jaden Ivey	Bojan Bogdanovic	Isaiah Stewart	Marvin Bagley
D EFF	30	25	7	21	22		D EFF	18	1	15	29	1

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries:

None

Dallas Mavericks Stats:
Pace of Play: 96.1 (30 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 112.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Total: 114.8 (1 of 2)
Rebounding Rate: 47.6% (29 of 30)

DET Matchup:
Pace of Play: 99.9 (17 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 117.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 48.8% (25 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

Happy Thursday everyone! If you were looking for a quiet night in sports, your wishes were granted. We have a single NBA game and a single NFL game on the schedule.

The Mavericks are coming off of a nice win against the Warriors, but have been a tale of two teams this season. They are 9-3 at home and 1-7 on the road. In total, they are 10-10 in the standings with a point differential of +1.8 per game. Tonight they travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons, who are ranked 17th in pace and 29th in defensive rating. The Mavericks are listed as 8-point favorites and come into the game with an implied total of 114.8 points, which is 5.3 points above their season average.

With only one game on the slate, we will be talking about showdown strategy. On DraftKings, we have a Captain spot that rewards 1.5x fantasy points, but costs 1.5x the salary. On FanDuel, we have MVP, STAR, and PRO spots that reward 2x, 1.5x, and 1.2x fantasy points. The difference between the two sites is that FanDuel doesn’t have a salary multiplier. On DraftKings, all players are viable for the Captain spot. On DraftKings, you want your three highest scoring players to be featured in your three multiplier spots.

We’ll start with Luka Doncic, who is not a player that I would look to fade in any format this evening. He’s essentially a lock for the MVP spot on FanDuel (especially if you are playing cash games) and he’ll likely be the highest owned Captain on DraftKings. He’s projected for 61 fantasy points in this game. The next closest is Jaden Ivey at 32 fantasy points. This is not a situation to get cute, as Doncic is head and shoulders above the rest of the options in this game.

After that great stretch of games, Spencer Dinwiddie has been held under 30 fantasy points in six straight games. This is certainly a slump-busting type of matchup, but the form is concerning. Tim Hardaway was inserted into the starting lineup on Tuesday and for now, it looks like the move will stick. He’ll likely see a lower usage rate playing among the starters, but that’s offset by his increased playing time. He’s one of the top per-dollar options tonight on FanDuel.

Dorian Finney-Smith got off to a very slow start this season, but has really picked up his play over the last couple of weeks. He should play big minutes tonight and is only $4,800 on DraftKings. Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, and Davis Bertans are all in a similar boat, as they are much better values on DraftKings than they are on FanDuel. If you are using Luka at Captain, you’ll likely need to punt a position or two and the likes of Powell ($2,200), Kleber ($3,800), an Bertans ($1,000) all rate out as nice point-per-dollar options.

Christian Wood could be a nice way to differentiate lineups tonight. We all wish he had a higher minute floor, but he continues to be productive in his 25-27 minutes off the bench each night. This is a good matchup and don’t forget, this is also a revenge game if you are into that sort of thing. Reggie Bullock seems out of favor at the moment, so I prefer Josh Green if you are looking to differentiate with a wing player off the bench.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Luka Doncic	$14,400	PG	$17,000	PG/SG	37.4	1.6	63.0	0.6	37%	-3%	61%	0%	1.68	-0.05	1.62	-0.08		38	60.6	4.21	56.8	3.34
Spencer Dinwiddie	$7,400	PG/SG	$11,500	PG/SG	32.0	-4.6	31.1	-5.1	22%	3%	60%	5%	0.97	-0.02	0.94	-0.05		31	30.1	4.06	29.0	2.52
Tim Hardaway	$6,200	SG/SF	$9,000	SG/SF	24.1	-1.0	19.0	-3.9	22%	-3%	48%	6%	0.79	-0.13	0.76	-0.17		31	24.4	3.94	23.4	2.60
Dorian Finney-Smith	$4,800	SF/PF	$9,500	SF/PF	33.3	-0.3	19.8	7.2	12%	2%	55%	4%	0.59	0.22	0.60	0.23		32	20.8	4.34	20.6	2.17
Dwight Powell	$2,200	C	$6,500	C/PF	17.1	-3.7	12.2	-2.1	13%	-1%	70%	13%	0.71	0.04	0.75	0.10		17	11.6	5.26	11.7	1.80
Christian Wood	$8,000	C	$12,500	PF/C	25.5	1.4	29.4	-3.8	27%	-1%	63%	-20%	1.15	-0.20	1.11	-0.14		26	31.3	3.92	30.1	2.41
Maxi Kleber	$3,600	PF/C	$8,500	PF/C	24.9	1.3	13.6	3.3	9%	0%	57%	26%	0.54	0.10	0.56	0.08		25	15.9	4.41	16.2	1.90
Josh Green	$3,200	SF	$6,500	SG	19.5	1.9	13.2	1.7	12%	2%	75%	-3%	0.68	0.02	0.68	-0.01		19	12.7	3.97	12.9	1.99
Reggie Bullock	$2,800	SF/PF	$6,500	SG/SF	28.0	-7.9	12.3	-6.2	10%	-1%	42%	-19%	0.44	-0.13	0.44	-0.14		15	7.9	2.84	7.7	1.19
Davis Bertans	$1,000	PF	$6,000	SF	8.6	3.5	7.1	0.0	19%	-8%	66%	24%	0.82	-0.24	0.73	-0.23		6	4.6	4.56	4.3	0.72

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway (FD)

Tournament Targets – Tim Hardaway (DK), Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood

Viable Punts – Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell (DK), Maxi Kleber (DK), Davis Bertans (DK)

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Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries:

Jaden Ivey (Questionable)
Cade Cunningham (Out)

Detroit Pistons Stats:
Pace of Play: 99.9 (17 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.2 (25 of 30)
Implied Total: 106.8 (2 of 2)
Rebounding Rate: 48.8% (25 of 30)

DAL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 96.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 110.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 47.6% (29 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

The Pistons picked up a couple nice wins on the road last week, but have lost three games in a row and have dipped to 5-18 overall with a point differential of -8.6 per game. They have a brutal matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked dead last in pace and 11th in defensive rating. I suppose matchups don’t matter much when we can’t pivot and target other games on a single-game slate. The Pistons are sizable underdogs at home and have an implied total of only 106.8 points.

Personally, I expect to have a lot more exposure to the Mavericks than I do to the Pistons. I expect the field to do the same, so the way to differentiate might be to load up on the Pistons. Very few lineups will have more than two or three players from Detroit. One option is to use Luka Doncic at Captain and MVP, use one other player from the Mavericks, and then use four players from Detroit. At the very least, it will help you differentiate a bit in large-field tournaments.

The main injury to keep an eye on here is Jaden Ivey. He has missed the last three games with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for this game. With Ivey and Cade Cunningham both out, Killian Hayes has averaged 32 minutes and 37 fantasy points over his last three games. If Ivey is out again, I don’t mind going right back to Hayes on DraftKings ($7,600). If Ivey is active, he becomes the preferred target over Hayes on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Bojan Bogdanovic has been ice cold over the last two games, but has soaked up a ton of usage while Cunningham has been out. He went on a stretch where he was scoring 35+ fantasy points every game. He’s affordable and arguably has the highest upside of any player not-named Luka on this slate. Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley are starting alongside one another, but continue to cut into each other’s playing time and fantasy production. I’ll lean toward the cheaper of the two, which is Stewart.

Saddiq Bey has really fallen out of favor in Detroit. After starting most of last season and to start this season, he’s stuck playing a reserve role off the bench. He projects as one of the worst per-dollar options on the board. Alec Burks has flashed some upside recently and could be worth a look in tournaments or if Ivey is unable to suit up. My favorite contrarian play in this spot is Jalen Duren, who is capable of averaging a fantasy point per minute and who could see 20+ minutes off the bench.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Killian Hayes	$7,600	PG	$13,000	PG	23.6	8.5	19.9	17.1	18%	4%	42%	9%	0.84	0.31	0.85	0.34		30	25.9	3.41	25.9	1.99
Jaden Ivey	$8,400	SG	$14,000	SG	31.8		31.3		23%		52%		0.98		0.96			32	32.3	3.84	30.9	2.20
Bojan Bogdanovic	$7,800	SF/PF	$10,500	SF/PF	31.5	-5.2	29.6	-8.9	24%	6%	64%	-10%	0.94	-0.15	0.88	-0.19		32	31.0	3.97	28.7	2.73
Isaiah Stewart	$6,800	PF/C	$11,000	C/PF	27.0	-1.0	29.1	1.1	17%	10%	61%	7%	1.08	0.08	1.06	0.01		26	24.1	3.55	23.8	2.17
Marvin Bagley	$7,200	C	$12,000	PF/C	23.9	3.6	24.8	8.3	20%	4%	63%	-3%	1.04	0.17	1.05	0.11		25	22.9	3.17	22.4	1.87
Alec Burks	$5,800	PG/SG	$10,000	PG/SG	20.6	-1.4	22.6	-5.6	27%	1%	61%	-8%	1.10	-0.21	1.07	-0.24		19	20.2	3.47	19.4	1.94
Saddiq Bey	$7,000	SF/PF	$9,500	SF	30.6	-3.9	24.6	-4.4	20%	5%	55%	-9%	0.80	-0.05	0.79	0.00		25	20.1	2.87	19.1	2.01
Jalen Duren	$4,200	C	$7,500	C	22.1	-1.5	18.8	-4.3	12%	-1%	58%	4%	0.85	-0.15	0.89	-0.18		21	16.4	3.91	16.5	2.20
Isaiah Livers	$3,400	PF	$6,500	PF	20.2	6.7	12.1	2.1	12%	-2%	55%	-1%	0.60	-0.07	0.60	-0.04		18	10.7	3.16	10.5	1.62
Cory Joseph	$2,400	PG	$7,500	PG	14.4	5.0	11.3	3.6	15%	5%	53%	8%	0.79	-0.02	0.78	-0.03		4	3.2	1.32	3.1	0.42

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic

Tournament Targets – Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart

Viable Punts – Alec Burks (DK), Jalen Duren, Isaiah Livers (DK)