NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 23rd

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total 206.0 Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Implied Team Total 97.5 Implied Team Total 108.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.8 Pace Projection +/- -3.7
Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Jonathan Isaac Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Projected Starters Kyle Lowry Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Pascal Siakam Marc Gasol
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 12 16 3 6 11 DEFF 23 20 15 9 3
DvsA 17 10 4 12 4 DvsA 14 2 19 15 1

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries


Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 117.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.5 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -9.8 (8 of 8)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 106.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 106.8 (5 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 50.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 100.6 (15 of 30)

After stealing Game 1, the Magic have dropped three games in a row and find themselves quickly in a 3-1 hole. The Magic had no answer for Kawhi Leonard in Game 4, allowing him to score a game-high 34 points. Aaron Gordon was the lone bright spot for the Magic, scoring a team high 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Overall, it was an ugly performance as the Magic lost by 22 points, and with Orlando playing on the road here, it’s fair to wonder how close this game will be.

Nikola Vucevic struggled once again, shooting 5-for-14 and finishing with a 11/5/2 line. In this series, Marc Gasol has kept him to a 37.5% shooting percentage with averages of 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds, way below his season averages of 20.8 and 12.0, respectively. Aside from Vucevic’s Game 3 performance where he was able to take advantage of Marc Gasol in foul trouble, Vucevic has not looked great this series. He’s definitely capable of a big line but for now I’m viewing him as a secondary option and plan to be underweight on him.

Jonathan Isaac dealt with foul trouble in Game 4 and ultimately went scoreless over 16 minutes. His foul trouble forced Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier to guard Pascal Siakam more, which wasn’t good news for the Magic. Isaac isn’t on my radar on the main slate, while Ross is averaging 28.5 minutes in the postseason but scoring nearly six points below his season average (13.0 versus 18.9 in the regular season). Ross is fine on a Showdown slate, but his inconsistency and this Raptors defense slowing him down has me mostly off him on the main slate. I’ll list him as a secondary play because of his minutes and ability to get hot from deep, but I’m planning to be underweight on him. I’m also planning to be underweight on Fournier despite his 19/4/2 line in Game 4. Half his shot attempts were three-pointers and he’s just too scoring-dependent for me to trust.

After his 25-point Game 1 explosion, D.J. Augustin has now been held to single-digit points in three straight games. The Raptors have put the clamp down on him and he’s just not on my radar for this slate. If he burns me with another 25-point performance, I can live with that.

Honestly, Aaron Gordon would be my primary target here but I’m still viewing him more as a secondary target on this main slate as there are other players I’d rather prioritize first. The Raptors are scheming to take Vucevic out of the game and forcing everyone else to beat them. Even if that means Gordon has a good game here or there, the Raptors can live with that since they are winning these games. There are just too many red flags for me on this Magic team and for the most part, I don’t envision this being a team I’m going to heavily target.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
D.J. Augustin $5,300 $5,000 $9,800 22.9 -1.8 28.0 0.8 0.82 18.8% 12 17 3
Evan Fournier $5,100 $5,100 $9,900 25.4 -4.1 31.5 3.5 0.81 21.3% 16 10 1
Jonathan Isaac $5,500 $4,300 $8,500 23.2 -2.7 26.6 0.5 0.87 14.8% 3 4 15
Aaron Gordon $6,900 $6,600 $12,300 32.5 1.5 33.8 0.8 0.96 20.5% 6 12 3
Nikola Vucevic $8,500 $7,700 $14,400 45.2 -15.1 31.4 1.1 1.44 26.6% 11 4 6
Terrence Ross $5,500 $5,100 $10,000 24.7 -1.7 26.5 2.1 0.93 22.5% N/A 10 N/A
Michael Carter-Williams $3,500 $3,700 $7,200 14.5 -0.7 13.3 5.2 1.09 21.6% N/A 5 N/A
Wes Iwundu $3,500 $3,000 $6,100 11.4 -4.3 18.1 -6.1 0.63 12.1% N/A 16 N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysEvan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, Nikola Vucevic

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries


Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 116.0 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.5 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.9 (5 of 8)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 110.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 107.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 50.4 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 98.7 (24 of 30)

The Raptors are playing well and look scary with Kawhi Leonard healthy and motivated. Leonard finished with a full 34/6/2/2/2 line over 35 minutes despite dealing with an illness. I’ve always struggled whether to roster Leonard for his high floor/ceiling, or save a little extra by going down to Pascal Siakam. I think Game 4 was a reminder that the gap between Leonard and Siakam is still wide, and if you can get up to Leonard, do it. As for Siakam, he managed a 16/6/2 line in Game 4 and continues to see heavy run. He’s averaging 39 minutes per game this series and remains having a high floor as well just given the massive playing time he’s getting.

Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka continue to split time at center, making both dicey plays on the main slate. For the most part I don’t see a reason to target them unless you’re playing a Showdown format. Gasol has the higher floor as he typically sees more minutes to match up against Vucevic, but Ibaka’s per-minute production is worth a look in Showdown. Danny Green and Fred VanVleet also continue to split time, making both of them dicey plays as well. Like Gasol/Ibaka, I don’t have much interest in Green/VanVleet on the main slate and would only consider them as salary savers in a Showdown format.

Kyle Lowry was quiet in Game 4 with a modest 9/9/4 steal line, and he’s only averaging 9.5 shot attempts per game this series as he continues to take a back seat to Kawhi Leonard, but he’s played 38, 40 and 39 minutes in the last three games so the huge minutes are there. The lack of shot attempts and scoring is a concern, but he’s firmly on my radar as a solid secondary play because of the minutes he’s getting.

I’ll mention that Norman Powell came off the bench and scored 16 points in just 21 minutes. Powell is a worthy dart throw on a Showdown game but I think he’s too thin of a play on the main slate unless you’re building a bunch of teams. He’d benefit if this game turned into a blowout but he entered Game 4 averaging just around six points per game prior to his 16-point explosion, so I don’t know if I feel comfortable chasing his last performance.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,000 $7,000 $13,200 35.9 -1.3 34.1 3.5 1.05 20.3% 23 14 19
Danny Green $4,500 $4,300 $8,100 21.4 -2.2 27.7 1.1 0.77 13.1% 20 2 19
Kawhi Leonard $9,800 $8,300 $15,200 44.9 -1.8 34.0 0.6 1.32 28.4% 15 19 11
Pascal Siakam $8,600 $7,500 $13,600 32.7 7.1 31.8 7.3 1.03 19.4% 9 15 14
Marc Gasol $5,900 $5,500 $10,700 34.3 -7.1 30.8 -4.5 1.11 19.1% 3 1 2
Serge Ibaka $5,100 $4,900 $9,600 30.6 -7.3 27.2 -6.1 1.12 20.1% N/A 10 N/A
Fred VanVleet $4,100 $3,900 $8,100 23.6 -9.2 27.5 -4.0 0.86 19.1% N/A 3 N/A
Norman Powell $3,900 $3,400 $6,500 15.2 0.1 18.8 0.6 0.81 17.5% N/A 24 N/A

Elite PlaysKawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam

Secondary PlaysMarc Gasol, Kyle Lowry

About the Author

  • Allan Lem (fathalpert)

  • Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. He dreams of winning a big tournament so he can try cashing one of those giant cardboard checks at his local bank.


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