NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 24th - Bulls at Pacers
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Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 |
Vegas Total | 234.5 |  |
Vegas Total | 234.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 118.3 | Implied Team Total | 116.3 | |||||||||
| Points +/- | 3.6 | Points +/- | 1.3 | |||||||||
| Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Position | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Starters | Ayo Dosunmu | Zach LaVine | DeMar DeRozan | Patrick Williams | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | T.J. McConnell | Andrew Nembhard | Buddy Hield | Aaron Nesmith | Myles Turner | |
| D EFF (L10) | 10 | 28 | 26 | 29 | 8 | D EFF (L10) | 21 | 8 | 19 | 25 | 4 | |
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries:
Goran Dragic (Out)
Lonzo Ball (Out)
Javonte Green (Out)
Chicago Bulls Stats:
Pace of Play: 100.5 (14 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 112.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Total: 118.3 (1 of 14)
Rebounding Rate: 49.0% (23 of 30)
IND Matchup:
Pace of Play: 102.1 (3 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 114.2 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 48.8% (24 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
We’ve got pretty well-balanced NBA slates all week long with another 7-gamer on tap for Tuesday night. The Bulls are one of a few teams on the second night of a back-to-back after a home win over the Hawks last night. Chicago will head to Indiana to take on the shorthanded Pacers this evening.
The Bulls aren’t really known for managing loads, especially now that Zach LaVine seems to be back to full strength following some knee trouble earlier in the year. We know LaVine and DeMar DeRozan will both have usage rates in the 30% range on a nightly basis. DeRozan isn’t the free square he was last night after his salaries rose around the industry overnight, while LaVine is a better value on FanDuel ($8,200) than he is on DraftKings ($9,200). I still prefer DeRozan between the two in that range, especially in a good matchup. Indy ranks second in the league in pace and just 24th in defensive rating coming into this one.
Ayo Dosunmu is still starting at the point, though Alex Caruso and Coby White are lurking off the bench. Caruso (0.79 FP/min) is really popping as a nice cheap option at just $4,000 on DK, while Dosunmu (0.69) makes sense as a GPP pivot for $300 less. White gets a few extra minutes with Goran Dragic out, but the other two are a bit more stable. Patrick Williams (0.71 FPPM), as always, is still cheap and playing a bundle of minutes in the frontcourt. Nikola Vucevic is pricey, but consistent. He’s posted a double-double in 11 consecutive games. Center looks like a pay-up-or-punt position tonight, which could lead to single-digit GPP ownership on Vuc.
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | $3,700 | PG | $4,200 | PG/SG | 27.7 | 3.8 | 19.2 | 0.4 | 15% | -4% | 58% | 6% | 0.69 | -0.07 | 0.69 | -0.06 | 29 | 20.6 | 5.58 | 20.5 | 4.88 | |
| Zach LaVine | $9,200 | SG/SF | $8,200 | SG/SF | 35.7 | 1.2 | 38.8 | 4.5 | 28% | 0% | 59% | -2% | 1.09 | 0.09 | 1.04 | 0.13 | 35 | 42.1 | 4.57 | 40.2 | 4.90 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,000 | SF/PF | $8,800 | SG/SF | 36.1 | 1.4 | 42.2 | 3.0 | 28% | 0% | 60% | -1% | 1.17 | 0.04 | 1.18 | 0.06 | 37 | 45.9 | 5.10 | 46.0 | 5.22 | |
| Patrick Williams | $4,700 | SF/PF | $5,200 | SF/PF | 29.2 | 1.8 | 20.7 | 6.9 | 15% | -1% | 58% | 9% | 0.71 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.16 | 31 | 24.4 | 5.19 | 24.5 | 4.72 | |
| Nikola Vucevic | $8,900 | C | $8,500 | C | 33.8 | 3.9 | 40.2 | 17.2 | 21% | 4% | 60% | -5% | 1.19 | 0.33 | 1.16 | 0.34 | 35 | 44.1 | 4.95 | 43.4 | 5.11 | |
| Alex Caruso | $4,000 | PG/SG | $5,800 | PG/SG | 24.5 | 2.6 | 19.3 | 11.1 | 11% | 2% | 57% | -2% | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.84 | 0.41 | 27 | 24.5 | 6.13 | 25.4 | 4.38 | |
| Coby White | $4,100 | PG/SG | $4,900 | PG/SG | 21.1 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 3.5 | 16% | 1% | 57% | 15% | 0.79 | 0.14 | 0.78 | 0.16 | 23 | 17.9 | 4.36 | 17.2 | 3.52 | |
| Derrick Jones | $3,400 | PF/C | $3,900 | SF/PF | 15.2 | 3.0 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 14% | 2% | 63% | -2% | 0.80 | 0.02 | 0.85 | 0.02 | 17 | 14.2 | 4.18 | 14.8 | 3.79 | |
| Andre Drummond | $3,000 | C | $4,000 | C | 13.2 | -9.7 | 16.9 | -11.6 | 19% | 10% | 61% | 39% | 1.28 | 0.22 | 1.30 | 0.20 | 6 | 8.2 | 2.73 | 8.4 | 2.10 | |
| Tony Bradley | $3,000 | C | $3,500 | PF/C | 2.6 | -1.5 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 15% | 11% | 68% | 1.10 | -1.10 | 1.08 | -1.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Tournament Targets – Zach LaVine
Viable Punts – Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso (DK), Ayo Dosunmu
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries:
Tyrese Haliburton (Out)
Andrew Nembhard (Questionable)
Daniel Theis (Out)
Indiana Pacers Stats:
Pace of Play: 102.1 (3 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 112.3 (22 of 30)
Implied Total: 116.3 (5 of 14)
Rebounding Rate: 48.8% (24 of 30)
CHI Matchup:
Pace of Play: 100.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 112.9 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.0% (23 of 30)
Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.
The Pacers have yet to win a game since Tyrese Haliburton went down with an injury, but maybe tonight’s the night. Hali is still sidelined with his elbow and knee trouble, while Andrew Nembhard popped up on the injury report as questionable with an illness for this one. Needless to say, the Nembhard news is impactful considering he’s been serving as Haliburton’s replacement at the starting point guard spot. Nembhard hasn’t been thriving in this role of late, while T.J. McConnell is living his best life after drawing a start in the last game. Even at $6,600 on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings, McConnell looks like a stellar value in all formats. He’ll look even better if Nembhard sits.
Nembhard hasn’t even cracked 27 minutes in each of his last 3 games, which makes him a risky value even if he plays. Indiana has a couple of other guards (Bennedict Mathurin, Chris Duarte) capable of eating into Nembhard’s playing time. Mathurin is a solid play regardless at his low-$5,000s salaries as the Pacers’ usage leader (28.8%) with Hali out. Duarte is a fringe value that would look a lot better without Nembhard.
Buddy Hield really doesn’t get a usage bump without Haliburton, while Aaron Nesmith plays enough minutes to make his 0.72 FP/min rate passable at his cheap price points. Myles Turner (+2%) gets a slight usage boost sans Haliburton, and we’ve seen a few big games from him of late. He looks pretty appealing on DK where he’s $1,000 cheaper than he is over on FanDuel.
| Player | DK | POS | FD | POS | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | TS% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. McConnell | $6,100 | PG | $6,600 | PG/SG | 18.6 | 9.2 | 19.5 | 12.0 | 17% | -1% | 56% | 13% | 1.05 | 0.08 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 33 | 37.9 | 6.20 | 37.9 | 5.74 | |
| Andrew Nembhard | $4,900 | PG/SG | $5,200 | SG/PG | 27.3 | -2.8 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 15% | 7% | 53% | -15% | 0.75 | 0.17 | 0.73 | 0.16 | 27 | 24.9 | 5.09 | 24.0 | 4.61 | |
| Buddy Hield | $6,200 | SG/SF | $6,500 | SG/SF | 31.7 | -5.3 | 31.3 | -7.8 | 21% | -2% | 60% | -4% | 0.99 | -0.10 | 0.94 | -0.10 | 31 | 29.6 | 4.77 | 27.7 | 4.26 | |
| Aaron Nesmith | $3,800 | SF/PF | $4,500 | SF/PF | 23.4 | 0.4 | 18.6 | -4.2 | 17% | 2% | 55% | -8% | 0.79 | -0.19 | 0.79 | -0.23 | 27 | 21.5 | 5.66 | 21.0 | 4.66 | |
| Myles Turner | $7,100 | C | $8,100 | C/PF | 29.7 | -3.4 | 35.2 | -2.5 | 21% | -1% | 66% | -10% | 1.19 | 0.06 | 1.22 | 0.12 | 31 | 36.4 | 5.12 | 37.2 | 4.60 | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | $5,400 | SG/SF | $5,300 | SG/SF | 28.3 | 2.2 | 25.6 | -1.3 | 25% | -3% | 56% | 2% | 0.90 | -0.11 | 0.87 | -0.09 | 31 | 28.7 | 5.31 | 27.4 | 5.17 | |
| Chris Duarte | $3,400 | SG/SF | $3,900 | SF | 17.6 | 1.1 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 19% | 0% | 47% | 9% | 0.72 | 0.21 | 0.69 | 0.24 | 19 | 16.4 | 4.81 | 15.8 | 4.05 | |
| Oshae Brissett | $3,100 | PF | $3,900 | SF | 16.4 | 0.2 | 12.8 | 0.1 | 15% | 3% | 53% | -26% | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 19 | 15.7 | 5.07 | 15.6 | 4.01 | |
| Jalen Smith | $3,200 | PF/C | $5,100 | PF/C | 19.6 | -5.6 | 21.1 | -3.6 | 21% | 8% | 56% | 4% | 1.08 | 0.17 | 1.08 | 0.10 | 15 | 16.2 | 5.05 | 15.6 | 3.07 | |
| Isaiah Jackson | $3,300 | C | $5,600 | PF | 15.8 | -2.6 | 16.4 | -4.7 | 17% | 0% | 59% | -8% | 1.04 | -0.15 | 1.11 | -0.22 | 5 | 6.5 | 1.98 | 6.7 | 1.19 |
The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.
Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Myles Turner (DK)
Tournament Targets – Myles Turner (FD), Buddy Hield
Viable Punts – Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard