NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 17th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Boston Celtics
Vegas Total 203.0 Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 97.8 Implied Team Total 105.3
Pace Projection +/- -1.9 Pace Projection +/- -3.7
Projected Starters Darren Collison Wesley Matthews Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Al Horford Aron Baynes
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 2 8 7 11 19 DEFF 13 10 9 18 6
DvsA 7 8 8 7 7 DvsA 1 8 9 15 4

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Victor Oladipo (Out)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 108.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.8 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -10.3 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 109.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 107.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 49.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 100.5 (16 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Darren Collison $5,000 $4,900 $9,700 26.8 -15.1 28.2 -3.4 0.95 19.5% 2 7 5
Wesley Matthews $3,800 $4,100 $7,900 20.4 -6.7 30.3 -0.9 0.67 16.7% 8 8 6
Bojan Bogdanovic $6,200 $5,500 $10,800 26.9 -6.0 31.8 2.8 0.85 20.3% 7 8 7
Thaddeus Young $6,400 $5,900 $11,400 28.4 8.5 30.7 -4.6 0.92 16.7% 11 7 10
Myles Turner $6,500 $6,100 $11,800 33.4 -12.8 28.6 1.4 1.17 17.7% 19 7 7
Domantas Sabonis $6,400 $6,300 $12,700 30.4 -10.1 24.8 2.7 1.23 21.1% N/A 12 N/A
Tyreke Evans $4,300 $4,100 $7,800 18.9 -0.2 20.3 -3.1 0.93 24.1% N/A 4 N/A
Cory Joseph $4,300 $4,000 $7,400 19.6 -1.7 25.2 -2.1 0.78 14.9% N/A 7 N/A

The Pacers lost an ugly 84-74 game on Sunday, and Game 2 once again has the lowest implied total on the slate (203 points). The Pacers’ implied team total of 97.8 is also lowest on the day. Indiana shot just 33.3% from the field as a team against Boston’s stingy defense that day.

Darren Collison was one of the many Indiana disappointments that day, but he’s still cheap around the industry and I’d expect him to be playing without a minutes limit moving forward. This is a matchup in which he’s struggled all year (he’s averaged just 18.6 DK points per game across his 4 meetings with Boston), but he’s averaged a respectable 1.01 FP/min on the year with Victor Oladipo off the floor. At his cheap price point, I’m willing to go back to the well with Collison. Cory Joseph is a viable pivot in GPPs, but he doesn’t bring a ton of upside.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Wesley Matthews and Tyreke Evans combined to shoot 10-for-30 in Game 1, but the miserable performance caused their price tags to dip a little. Bogdanovic is the most expensive of the 3, but I think he’s in play here with the Celtics still missing their best wing defender, Marcus Smart. Evans feels like a cheap GPP dart, while Matthews is more of a cash play with his more secured minutes.

Thaddeus Young was really the only Pacer that didn’t bust on Sunday, but his price got bumped up a bit as a result. Young provides a higher floor that Bogdanovic at a comparable price point, but Bogdanovic is the play with the higher ceiling. I almost always side with Myles Turner over Domantas Sabonis thanks to Turner’s safer minutes. The Celts rank just 19th in defensive rating against centers over the last 10 games, and he’s cheap enough now to where I think he’s viable in all formats. Sabonis leads the team with an average of 1.27 FP/min with Oladipo off the floor, but he’s really only on my radar in tournaments.

Elite PlaysDarren Collison, Myles Turner

Secondary PlaysBojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Domantas Sabonis (GPP)

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Smart (Out)
Al Horford (Questionable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game (L10): 110.2 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -7.2 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game (L10): 109.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Rating (L10): 105.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding % (L10): 49.9 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play (L10): 98.7 (24 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Playoffs +/- Minutes Playoffs +/- FP/Min True Usage DEFF DvsA DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,300 $15,000 43.6 -4.1 33.0 1.0 1.32 29.1% 13 1 13
Jaylen Brown $4,600 $5,000 $9,900 22.7 -14.7 25.9 2.1 0.88 19.8% 10 8 15
Jayson Tatum $6,900 $5,600 $11,300 30.0 -5.3 31.1 2.8 0.96 20.4% 9 9 27
Al Horford $7,300 $6,600 $12,000 33.0 -2.3 29.0 3.2 1.14 19.0% 18 15 8
Aron Baynes $4,200 $4,000 $7,300 14.8 0.0 16.1 6.8 0.92 13.8% 6 4 2
Gordon Hayward $6,400 $5,300 $10,400 24.1 4.3 25.9 4.4 0.93 18.7% N/A 9 N/A
Terry Rozier $4,000 $4,700 $9,000 20.7 -7.7 22.7 -4.5 0.91 19.1% N/A 13 N/A
Marcus Morris $5,100 $4,600 $9,100 25.0 3.4 27.9 1.6 0.89 19.1% N/A 8 N/A

The Celtics only shot 36.4% from the floor on Sunday against the Pacers, but it was still enough to earn Boston a pretty easy victory. The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites in Game 2, and their implied team total of 105.3 points is third-highest on the slate. Their implied team total is 7.2 points under their season average, which is also the third-best margin on the slate. Yes, this is an ugly set of games.

Kyrie Irving finished with 20 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds the other day while shooting just 6-for-17 from the field. The Pacers rank a solid 13th in defensive rating against point guards over the last 10 games, but Kyrie is fairly matchup-proof in general. He’s the most expensive point guard on the slate, but he’s still underpriced for his talent level. I’d much rather play Irving than someone like Donovan Mitchell at a similar price point on this slate.

Jaylen Brown started for Marcus Smart on Sunday, but he was almost invisible in his 28 minutes of action. Brown has averaged 0.90 FP/min on the year with Smart off the floor, and his price has come up a little from where it was on Sunday. I’d be fine going underweight on him in tournaments if he’s going to be chalky again, but I wouldn’t let one bad game get me away from rostering him completely.

Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Morris should each see around 30 minutes again here with upside for more if Horford happens to sit out. Morris is still underpriced around the industry, and he’d become a core value in the event that Horford doesn’t play. Hayward’s price has risen on FanDuel, but he’s still squarely in play as small forward is a nightmare position. I prefer Tatum to Hayward straight-up on DraftKings, especially if ownership winds up trending more toward Hayward.

Aron Baynes is a viable value even if Horford plays, but if Horford is out Banger likely turns into one of the more popular plays on the slate. Baynes has averaged 1.07 FP/min with Horford and Smart off the floor this season. While the Pacers have been stingy defensively against opposing bigs, I’m not letting that scare me away from Baynes at his super cheap price point. Horford is a fine option if he suits up, but he’s also priced near his ceiling and we do have some other center options at our disposal.

Elite PlaysKyrie Irving, Aron Baynes (if Horford is out), Jayson Tatum / Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris (if Horford is out)

Secondary Plays – Baynes and Morris (if Horford plays), Al Horford, Jaylen Brown

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.


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