NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 30th - Hawks at Magic

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Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		227.5					Vegas Total		227.5
			Vegas Spread		-6.0					Vegas Spread		6.0
			Implied Team Total		116.8					Implied Team Total		110.8
			Points +/-		3.3					Points +/-		2.5
Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Position	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Projected Starters	Trae Young	Dejounte Murray	De’Andre Hunter	John Collins	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Cole Anthony	Gary Harris	Franz Wagner	Paolo Banchero	Bol Bol
D EFF	27	5	16	2	23		D EFF	5	19	27	11	26

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries:

Bogdan Bogdanovic (Doubtful)
Jalen Johnson (Doubtful)

Atlanta Hawks Stats:
Pace of Play: 101.7 (8 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.1 (22 of 30)
Implied Total: 116.8 (8 of 26)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (19 of 30)

ORL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 115.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 50.9% (9 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

Happy Wednesday everyone! We have 13 games on the schedule, so let’s get right to the slate.

The Hawks have lost three games in a row and are now 11-10 overall with a point differential close to zero. They have struggled a bit on the road and travel to Orlando to take on the Magic, who are ranked 23rd in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Hawks have an implied total of 116.8 points, which is 3.3 points above their season average.

Trae Young finally snapped his 40+ fantasy point streak the other night, but we can expect him to start a new streak this evening. The Magic are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and are ranked 27th in efficiency against point guards. I wouldn’t go as far as calling Young a priority this evening, but he’s firmly in play in all formats. Dejounte Murray is more of a large-field tournament option. While the upside is there, his floor is much lower than his backcourt teammate.

De’Andre Hunter has seen an uptick in playing time recently and as such, an uptick in production. He’s generally more appealing on short slates, but $4,900 on FanDuel isn’t a bad price in this matchup. Altanta’s frontcourt continues to be a thorn in my side. John Collins has quietly averaged 36 fantasy points over his last three games, while Clint Capela has had a few slate-breaking performances already this season. Given the size of the slate, I plan to take my chances elsewhere.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Trae Young	$9,700	PG	$9,800	PG	35.4	1.3	47.7	-0.5	33%	-2%	54%	3%	1.35	-0.06	1.27	-0.07		35	47.7	4.92	44.3	4.52
Dejounte Murray	$8,800	PG/SG	$8,800	SG/PG	36.8	1.5	42.3	-5.1	25%	1%	53%	9%	1.15	-0.18	1.14	-0.23		37	42.5	4.82	41.3	4.70
De’Andre Hunter	$5,300	SF	$4,900	SF/PF	32.0	3.8	23.9	-0.7	20%	-2%	55%	-1%	0.75	-0.10	0.72	-0.09		34	25.4	4.78	24.4	4.98
John Collins	$5,700	PF/C	$5,800	PF/C	32.2	2.0	28.7	8.3	16%	0%	57%	1%	0.89	0.19	0.91	0.25		32	26.3	4.62	26.2	4.52
Clint Capela	$6,400	C	$6,400	C	27.6	5.4	31.9	1.1	15%	1%	60%	-13%	1.15	-0.15	1.19	-0.22		29	31.7	4.95	32.5	5.07
AJ Griffin	$4,000	SG/SF	$4,000	SF	17.5	2.8	14.3	-1.2	19%	0%	58%	-14%	0.82	-0.17	0.81	-0.17		18	13.5	3.39	13.0	3.25
Onyeka Okongwu	$4,300	C	$4,400	C	20.8	6.2	19.1	-1.9	13%	-5%	66%	-9%	0.92	-0.28	0.96	-0.26		19	18.0	4.20	18.8	4.28
Justin Holiday	$3,400	PF	$3,500	SF/SG	16.8	-5.8	9.5	0.6	14%	3%	53%	47%	0.57	0.35	0.54	0.27		18	9.4	2.77	8.9	2.55
Trent Forrest	$3,000	PG	$3,500	SG	6.7	7.2	4.2	5.2	9%	1%	38%	23%	0.62	0.05	0.65	0.06		14	11.0	3.66	11.1	3.17
Aaron Holiday	$3,100	PG	$3,500	PG	17.8	-1.9	10.3	-5.3	12%	2%	51%	-16%	0.58	-0.27	0.59	-0.34		4	2.2	0.72	2.2	0.63

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – Trae Young

Tournament Targets – Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Viable Punts – De’Andre Hunter (FD)

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Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries:

Mo Bamba (Questionable)
Jalen Suggs (Out)
Wendell Carter (Out)
Chuma Okeke (Out)

Orlando Magic Stats:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Total: 110.8 (19 of 26)
Rebounding Rate: 50.9% (9 of 30)

ATL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 101.7 (8 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (19 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

The Magic have lost five games in a row and are tied with the Pistons and the Rockets for the fewest number of wins in basketball. They have struggled on both ends of the floor, but do draw a decent matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked eighth in pace and 12th in defensive rating. The Magic have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is 2.5 points above their season average.

As you can see from the table below, the Magic are likely a team that we can look to avoid on this large slate. While they are going to be without Chuma Okeke, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter, they are expected to have Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, and Terrence Ross back in the lineup. On top of that, Gary Harris is now playing more minutes. Paolo Banchero is really the only player on the team that projects well, but he has only averaged 30 fantasy points per game since returning from injury.

For now, it’s best to take a wait and see approach with the Magic.

Player	DK	POS	FD	POS	MIN/G	+/-	FP/G	+/-	USG%	+/-	TS%	+/-	DK/M	+/-	FD/M	+/-		MIN (P)	DK (P)	DK/$	FD (P)	FD/$
Cole Anthony	$5,900	PG	$5,700	PG/SG	30.4		31.1		24%		52%		1.02		1.01			28	27.4	4.64	26.1	4.58
Gary Harris	$4,600	SG/SF	$4,300	SG/SF	27.6	3.1	22.2	3.2	17%	0%	65%	-4%	0.80	0.02	0.79	0.03		28	20.1	4.38	19.6	4.56
Franz Wagner	$7,000	SG/SF	$6,900	SF/SG	33.4	-2.2	32.1	-3.0	25%	2%	59%	7%	0.96	-0.03	0.93	-0.03		34	32.7	4.66	31.8	4.61
Paolo Banchero	$8,200	SF/PF	$7,700	PF/SF	34.8	0.4	39.3	-9.8	29%	0%	55%	-2%	1.13	-0.29	1.11	-0.30		35	39.7	4.84	38.6	5.01
Bol Bol	$7,200	PF/C	$6,800	C	27.1	8.5	29.2	5.5	19%	-1%	67%	-2%	1.08	-0.10	1.09	-0.05		32	32.0	4.44	32.3	4.75
Terrence Ross	$3,500	SG	$3,700	SG/SF	24.8	-16.2	16.0	-6.0	17%	23%	54%	1%	0.64	0.52	0.62	0.54		20	13.7	3.91	12.9	3.49
Mo Bamba	$6,100	C	$5,200	C	18.7	0.8	18.0	-3.9	18%	-2%	59%	-13%	0.96	-0.24	0.96	-0.21		20	19.6	3.21	19.9	3.82
R.J. Hampton	$3,800	PG	$3,800	PG/SG	17.2	7.9	14.0	3.8	18%	1%	57%	-17%	0.81	-0.10	0.82	-0.10		12	8.9	2.34	8.8	2.31
Caleb Houstan	$3,600	SF/PF	$3,800	SF	18.5	5.2	9.3	7.6	10%	2%	53%	8%	0.50	0.21	0.49	0.21		16	9.0	2.51	8.7	2.29
Moe Wagner	$4,700	PF/C	$4,200	PF	18.1	0.0	17.1	0.0	21%	0%	49%	0%	0.94	0.00	0.92	0.00		3	2.8	0.59	2.7	0.64

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – None

Tournament Targets – None

Viable Punts – None