NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 30th - Hawks at Magic

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Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic
Vegas Total 227.5 Vegas Total 227.5
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Implied Team Total 116.8 Implied Team Total 110.8
Points +/- 3.3 Points +/- 2.5
Position PG SG SF PF C Position PG SG SF PF C
Projected Starters Trae Young Dejounte Murray De’Andre Hunter John Collins Clint Capela Projected Starters Cole Anthony Gary Harris Franz Wagner Paolo Banchero Bol Bol
D EFF 27 5 16 2 23 D EFF 5 19 27 11 26

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries:

Bogdan Bogdanovic (Doubtful)
Jalen Johnson (Doubtful)

Atlanta Hawks Stats:
Pace of Play: 101.7 (8 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.1 (22 of 30)
Implied Total: 116.8 (8 of 26)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (19 of 30)

ORL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 115.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 50.9% (9 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

Happy Wednesday everyone! We have 13 games on the schedule, so let’s get right to the slate.

The Hawks have lost three games in a row and are now 11-10 overall with a point differential close to zero. They have struggled a bit on the road and travel to Orlando to take on the Magic, who are ranked 23rd in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Hawks have an implied total of 116.8 points, which is 3.3 points above their season average.

Trae Young finally snapped his 40+ fantasy point streak the other night, but we can expect him to start a new streak this evening. The Magic are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and are ranked 27th in efficiency against point guards. I wouldn’t go as far as calling Young a priority this evening, but he’s firmly in play in all formats. Dejounte Murray is more of a large-field tournament option. While the upside is there, his floor is much lower than his backcourt teammate.

De’Andre Hunter has seen an uptick in playing time recently and as such, an uptick in production. He’s generally more appealing on short slates, but $4,900 on FanDuel isn’t a bad price in this matchup. Altanta’s frontcourt continues to be a thorn in my side. John Collins has quietly averaged 36 fantasy points over his last three games, while Clint Capela has had a few slate-breaking performances already this season. Given the size of the slate, I plan to take my chances elsewhere.

Player DK POS FD POS MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- TS% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Trae Young $9,700 PG $9,800 PG 35.4 1.3 47.7 -0.5 33% -2% 54% 3% 1.35 -0.06 1.27 -0.07 35 47.7 4.92 44.3 4.52
Dejounte Murray $8,800 PG/SG $8,800 SG/PG 36.8 1.5 42.3 -5.1 25% 1% 53% 9% 1.15 -0.18 1.14 -0.23 37 42.5 4.82 41.3 4.70
De’Andre Hunter $5,300 SF $4,900 SF/PF 32.0 3.8 23.9 -0.7 20% -2% 55% -1% 0.75 -0.10 0.72 -0.09 34 25.4 4.78 24.4 4.98
John Collins $5,700 PF/C $5,800 PF/C 32.2 2.0 28.7 8.3 16% 0% 57% 1% 0.89 0.19 0.91 0.25 32 26.3 4.62 26.2 4.52
Clint Capela $6,400 C $6,400 C 27.6 5.4 31.9 1.1 15% 1% 60% -13% 1.15 -0.15 1.19 -0.22 29 31.7 4.95 32.5 5.07
AJ Griffin $4,000 SG/SF $4,000 SF 17.5 2.8 14.3 -1.2 19% 0% 58% -14% 0.82 -0.17 0.81 -0.17 18 13.5 3.39 13.0 3.25
Onyeka Okongwu $4,300 C $4,400 C 20.8 6.2 19.1 -1.9 13% -5% 66% -9% 0.92 -0.28 0.96 -0.26 19 18.0 4.20 18.8 4.28
Justin Holiday $3,400 PF $3,500 SF/SG 16.8 -5.8 9.5 0.6 14% 3% 53% 47% 0.57 0.35 0.54 0.27 18 9.4 2.77 8.9 2.55
Trent Forrest $3,000 PG $3,500 SG 6.7 7.2 4.2 5.2 9% 1% 38% 23% 0.62 0.05 0.65 0.06 14 11.0 3.66 11.1 3.17
Aaron Holiday $3,100 PG $3,500 PG 17.8 -1.9 10.3 -5.3 12% 2% 51% -16% 0.58 -0.27 0.59 -0.34 4 2.2 0.72 2.2 0.63

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite PlaysTrae Young

Tournament TargetsDejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Viable Punts – De’Andre Hunter (FD)


Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries:

Mo Bamba (Questionable)
Jalen Suggs (Out)
Wendell Carter (Out)
Chuma Okeke (Out)

Orlando Magic Stats:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (23 of 30)
Offensive Rating: 109.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Total: 110.8 (19 of 26)
Rebounding Rate: 50.9% (9 of 30)

ATL Matchup:
Pace of Play: 101.7 (8 of 30)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Rate: 49.3% (19 of 30)

Note: The team stats above are from the 2022-23 season.

The Magic have lost five games in a row and are tied with the Pistons and the Rockets for the fewest number of wins in basketball. They have struggled on both ends of the floor, but do draw a decent matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked eighth in pace and 12th in defensive rating. The Magic have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is 2.5 points above their season average.

As you can see from the table below, the Magic are likely a team that we can look to avoid on this large slate. While they are going to be without Chuma Okeke, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter, they are expected to have Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, and Terrence Ross back in the lineup. On top of that, Gary Harris is now playing more minutes. Paolo Banchero is really the only player on the team that projects well, but he has only averaged 30 fantasy points per game since returning from injury.

For now, it’s best to take a wait and see approach with the Magic.

Player DK POS FD POS MIN/G +/- FP/G +/- USG% +/- TS% +/- DK/M +/- FD/M +/- MIN (P) DK (P) DK/$ FD (P) FD/$
Cole Anthony $5,900 PG $5,700 PG/SG 30.4 31.1 24% 52% 1.02 1.01 28 27.4 4.64 26.1 4.58
Gary Harris $4,600 SG/SF $4,300 SG/SF 27.6 3.1 22.2 3.2 17% 0% 65% -4% 0.80 0.02 0.79 0.03 28 20.1 4.38 19.6 4.56
Franz Wagner $7,000 SG/SF $6,900 SF/SG 33.4 -2.2 32.1 -3.0 25% 2% 59% 7% 0.96 -0.03 0.93 -0.03 34 32.7 4.66 31.8 4.61
Paolo Banchero $8,200 SF/PF $7,700 PF/SF 34.8 0.4 39.3 -9.8 29% 0% 55% -2% 1.13 -0.29 1.11 -0.30 35 39.7 4.84 38.6 5.01
Bol Bol $7,200 PF/C $6,800 C 27.1 8.5 29.2 5.5 19% -1% 67% -2% 1.08 -0.10 1.09 -0.05 32 32.0 4.44 32.3 4.75
Terrence Ross $3,500 SG $3,700 SG/SF 24.8 -16.2 16.0 -6.0 17% 23% 54% 1% 0.64 0.52 0.62 0.54 20 13.7 3.91 12.9 3.49
Mo Bamba $6,100 C $5,200 C 18.7 0.8 18.0 -3.9 18% -2% 59% -13% 0.96 -0.24 0.96 -0.21 20 19.6 3.21 19.9 3.82
R.J. Hampton $3,800 PG $3,800 PG/SG 17.2 7.9 14.0 3.8 18% 1% 57% -17% 0.81 -0.10 0.82 -0.10 12 8.9 2.34 8.8 2.31
Caleb Houstan $3,600 SF/PF $3,800 SF 18.5 5.2 9.3 7.6 10% 2% 53% 8% 0.50 0.21 0.49 0.21 16 9.0 2.51 8.7 2.29
Moe Wagner $4,700 PF/C $4,200 PF 18.1 0.0 17.1 0.0 21% 0% 49% 0% 0.94 0.00 0.92 0.00 3 2.8 0.59 2.7 0.64

The +/- columns show the difference between this season’s averages and the last three games.

Elite Plays – None

Tournament Targets – None

Viable Punts – None

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

  • Codyveo

    Thanks Noto! These mid week massive slates are a true grind, appreciate you pumping out all the words day in and day out!

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