NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 7th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Orlando Magic
Vegas Total 211.0 Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Implied Team Total 106.8 Implied Team Total 104.3
Pace Projection +/- -2.0 Pace Projection +/- 0.1
Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Reggie Bullock Glenn Robinson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Wes Iwundu Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Matchup PG SG SF PF C Matchup PG SG SF PF C
DEFF 27 25 27 11 8 DEFF 28 28 26 4 15
DRPM 19 22 N/A 14 5 DRPM 20 14 6 17 13

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Bullock (Questionable)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 110.1 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (14 of 20)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (21 of 30)

There are ten games on the schedule this fine evening and some huge tournaments across the industry. We start with the Pistons and Magic in what is expected to be a close, fairly high-scoring game. The Magic are certainly the better matchup when it comes to fantasy production, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. I’m a little surprised at how low their total is tonight (106.8), but that could have more to do with them playing on the road.

Reggie Jackson hasn’t been very productive when you compare his FP/min to other point guards in the NBA, but he’s cheap and draws a nice matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 27th in efficiency against point guards. At the very least, Jackson is worth a look if you are building multiple tournament lineups. If Reggie Bullock is unable to suit up, it could lead to big minutes for Ish Smith, Langston Galloway, and Glenn Robinson, who have all shown upside at times this season.

The key targets for Detroit are both in the frontcourt. Blake Griffin has turned back the clock this season, averaging 49 fantasy points per game with an elite true usage rate of 30%. Aaron Gordon is a decent defender, but the Magic are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball. Griffin stands out as an elite play on FanDuel at a price of $9,600. Just for reference, whenever a player is cheaper on FanDuel than they are on DraftKings, they are automatically a better value on the former. We never think of Nikola Vucevic as a good defender, but he grades out well in terms of his DRPM and the Magic as a whole are ranked eighth in efficiency against centers.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage DEFF DRPM
Reggie Jackson $6,000 $5,600 $11,000 25.1 30.9 0.81 24.3% 27 19
Reggie Bullock $4,300 $4,100 $8,100 16.3 28.5 0.57 17.3% 25 22
Glenn Robinson $3,800 $3,400 $6,400 9.5 15.1 0.63 12.7% 27 N/A
Blake Griffin $9,600 $9,900 $17,900 49.1 36.9 1.33 30.0% 11 14
Andre Drummond $9,600 $9,000 $16,500 43.2 32.4 1.33 23.2% 8 5
Ish Smith $4,600 $4,200 $8,300 19.6 28.4 0.69 16.9% N/A N/A
Stanley Johnson $3,600 $3,700 $7,700 14.1 26.6 0.53 12.8% N/A N/A
Langston Galloway $4,000 $3,900 $7,600 13.9 23.6 0.59 14.0% N/A N/A

Elite PlaysBlake Griffin (FD)

Secondary PlaysBlake Griffin (DK), Reggie Jackson (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP), Ish Smith & Glenn Robinson (if Bullock is out)


Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries

Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Evan Fournier (Questionable)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 101.8 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (6 of 20)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.9 (14 of 30)

The Magic are one of the most frustrating teams to try to predict in the NBA and they’ve been this way for years. They constantly let their opponents go on huge runs, which leads to volatile minutes and fantasy production for their starters. With that said, the spread for tonight’s game is set at 2.5 points, so hopefully we can expect a full allotment of minutes from the starters. The Magic may have the fourth lowest implied total (104.3 points) on the board, but it is 2.5 points above their season average.

D.J. Augustin grades out as a decent value play tonight. He’s priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 28th in efficiency against point guards. With that said, he plays a position that is loaded with options, which makes him more of a secondary tournament play. Evan Fournier is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, although there hasn’t been much reported on his injury. If he is active, he makes a strong tournament play against a Pistons’ team that has struggled to defend shooting guards. If Fournier is ruled out, Terrence Ross and Jonathon Simmons would both become intriguing plays since Jonathan Isaac has also been ruled out of tonight’s game.

Aaron Gordon chalk night paid dividends against the Cavaliers, but he’s not a player that I like to target on a regular basis. He’s as inconsistent of a player as you will find and he plays on an inconsistent team. That combination leads to huge swings in fantasy production on a nightly basis. I have more interest in Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 1.42 FP/min this season. Vucevic doesn’t have the highest minute floor, but has played at least 31 minutes in three of his last six games. He also has a nice track record against Andre Drummond, scoring 48, 61, and 44 fantasy points in their last three meetings.

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min True Usage DEFF DRPM
D.J. Augustin $4,700 $4,400 $8,500 20.3 26.9 0.75 18.0% 28 20
Evan Fournier $6,200 $6,100 $11,800 27.4 29.4 0.93 25.4% 28 14
Wes Iwundu $3,500 $3,100 $6,000 9.2 17.2 0.53 16.8% 26 6
Aaron Gordon $8,100 $7,000 $13,600 31.4 32.6 0.96 20.0% 4 17
Nikola Vucevic $8,800 $8,400 $15,400 41.6 29.2 1.42 24.8% 15 13
Jerian Grant $4,300 $3,600 $7,100 15.7 20.3 0.77 16.0% N/A N/A
Terrence Ross $4,800 $4,700 $9,100 22.0 24.8 0.89 22.3% N/A N/A
Jonathon Simmons $4,000 $3,700 $7,700 16.2 22.9 0.71 20.6% N/A N/A

Elite PlaysTerrence Ross (if Fournier is out), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Secondary PlaysTerrence Ross (if Fournier is active), Nikola Vucevic (GPP), D.J. Augustin (GPP), Evan Fournier (if active), Jonathon Simmons (if Fournier is out)

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Incentives members on a daily basis during the NBA season with daily videos for the Court Report and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards..

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

    January 5th, 2012 Daily Fantasy Fix

    February 14th, 2013 Daily Fantasy Fix

    footballguys.com Interview

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