NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 11: The Grind Down - Chargers vs. Jets

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Los Angeles Chargers DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Justin Herbert LAC $6,800 $8,500 $35 22.58 QB5 33.30 280.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Kalen Ballage LAC $5,600 $5,800 $16 15.17 RB14 55.00% 8.00%
Joshua Kelley LAC $4,000 $5,200 $13 7.36 RB44 25.00% 4.00%
Troymaine Pope LAC $4,000 $4,500 $11 2.8 RB65 9.00% 2.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Mike Williams LAC $5,100 $5,900 $17 12.22 WR35 18.50% 6.41
Jalen Guyton LAC $3,500 $4,900 $10 7.35 WR73 12.00% 4.15
Keenan Allen LAC $7,400 $8,000 $25 19.66 WR3 29.50% 10.21
Tyron Johnson LAC $3,000 $4,600 $13 1.32 WR112 2.25% 0.78
K.J. Hill LAC $3,000 $4,500 $10 0.53 WR124 1.00% 0.35
Hunter Henry LAC $4,600 $5,500 $17 11.97 TE4 18.00% 6.23
Donald Parham LAC $2,500 $4,300 $10 2.81 TE42 4.50% 1.56
Injuries to Monitor

RB – Justin Jackson – Out

Running Game Outlook

It’s funny how things work out sometimes. Kalen Ballage was an Adam Gase “pet” in Miami, and Gase then tried to bring Ballage to New York. This signing happened despite the fact that metrics showed that Ballage was arguably the worst running back in the NFL in 2019. Yes, Ballage averaged a whole 1.8 yards per carry on 74 carries a year ago. The criticism was warranted. Gase was ridiculed once again on social media.

Fast forward a few months. Ballage has been released by the Jets and picked up by the Chargers. Thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson and the ineffectiveness of the other backs in Los Angeles, Ballage has become the de facto starter. He played on over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps a week ago and got goal line carries on his way to an 18 carry, 68 yard day. He added five catches in the passing game.

Who do the Chargers play this week? Adam Gase and the Jets.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Game flow should be in Ballage’s favor here, and you know he wants to stick it to the Jets. At least we can presume that, since everyone seems to dislike Adam Gase (sorry Adam). The question becomes – is Ballage good enough to get the job done? Against any other team, I’d probably say no. Against the Jets, nothing is out of the question. He’s probably going to be the most popular value RB choice this week, and I really don’t love it for tournaments. In cash games, he makes sense.

Passing Game Outlook

The Jets are allowing the fourth most passing yards per game in the league, so this is a spot that could spell good news for Justin Herbert and company. Herbert didn’t have his best game last week against the Dolphins, but to his credit, he is saying all the right things. He “sounds” like an NFL quarterback. This sets up as a fantastic bounce back spot, as no Chargers receiver had more than 40 yards a week ago. Keenan Allen continues to be the clear top target in this offense, and he did lead the team with seven targets last week. Ballage, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry all had six.

Allen will certainly be fine against a feeble Jets defense that couldn’t keep up with Jakobi Meyers two weeks ago. He could push for double digit catches if this game is competitive. He is an elite target on this slate and a great GPP pairing with Herbert, as both have shown upside at times this year. Mike Williams remains a risk/reward GPP target, while Hunter Henry is in play at a weak tight end position despite the fact that he is having a down year. The Jets are a nice elixir for ailments.

Strong Projections: Kalen Ballage (though I will be underweight in GPP formats), Keenan Allen

High Upside Correlations: Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Hunter Henry

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium/High

New York Jets Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Joe Flacco NYJ $5,000 $6,100 $24 13.41 QB28 33.39 210.01
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
La’Mical Perine NYJ $4,400 $5,400 $15 10.05 RB29 38% 8%
Frank Gore NYJ $4,100 $5,000 $11 9.24 RB35 49% 4%
Ty Johnson NYJ $4,000 $4,500 $10 2.66 RB67 11% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Breshad Perriman NYJ $4,300 $5,700 $12 8.94 WR62 17% 6.12
Denzel Mims NYJ $3,300 $5,400 $13 8.73 WR64 19% 6.84
Jamison Crowder NYJ $6,100 $6,600 $17 12.97 WR32 26% 9.18
Braxton Berrios NYJ $3,000 $4,900 $10 1.88 WR105 4% 1.44
Jeff Smith NYJ $3,000 $4,700 $10 2.89 WR94 6% 2.16
Chris Herndon NYJ $2,700 $4,300 $10 4.66 TE29 10% 3.60
Ryan Griffin NYJ $2,500 $4,100 $11 2.71 TE44 5% 1.80
Injuries to Monitor

QB – Sam Darnold – Out

Running Game Outlook

The Jets actually showed some life against the Patriots two weeks ago, but they still fell to 0-9 with a close loss to the Patriots. The running game remains a low upside committee between Frank Gore (12 carries, 46 yards against New England) and La’Mical Perine (6 carries, 19 yards against New England). Adam Gase simply won’t go away from the veteran Gore, and that makes this a spot that we really don’t want to target in DFS circles. This is especially true when you consider the fact that the Jets are nearly ten point road underdogs in this game, with an implied team total in the teens. The Chargers don’t have the best rush defense in the NFL, but they are adequate enough to slow down the Jets.

However, do we have a potential changing of the guard here? During the bye week, ESPN’s Rich Cimini reported that Perine “will be the featured back over the remainder of the season as the organization tries to determine if he can be a future RB1.” Does that change things? With Adam Gase and the Jets — I’m inclined to believe it when I see it.

Perine might be worth a dart throw GPP gamble if you are multi-entering this week because of that comment plus his cheap salary tag, but you by no means need to do it.

Passing Game Outlook:

Joe Flacco will continue to be the starting quarterback for as long as Sam Darnold is sidelined, and Flacco actually made some good deep throws against the Patriots. The problem is that this should be another quick moving game, as the Jets will look to slow the game down to a slog. That will limit the upside of this entire passing game, especially against a Chargers team that is allowing just 232 yards per game through the air.

In any case, Flacco’s presence is actually a positive sign for Breshad Perriman, who should be closer to 100% coming out of the bye week. Perriman played on almost every offensive snap against New England along with Denzel Mims, and they brought Jamison Crowder back slowly from injury. Expect those snap counts to even out a little more this week. Mims is worth a look as a punt on DraftKings ($3,300) after posting 62 receiving yards against New England. Perriman is the boom/bust GPP target. Crowder is relatively safe as a volume based option, but don’t expect the Jets to speed up this game. As such, I don’t plan to go there.

Strong Projections: None

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: La’Mical Perine, Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

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