NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 11: The Grind Down - Browns vs Eagles

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Cleveland Browns DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Baker Mayfield CLE $5,400 $7,000 $25 16.16 QB26 32.59 210.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Nick Chubb CLE $7,000 $8,100 $28 15.77 RB11 60.00% 6.00%
Kareem Hunt CLE $6,700 $6,700 $21 11.48 RB25 27.00% 12.00%
D’Ernest Johnson CLE $4,000 $4,600 $10 0.99 RB77 5.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Rashard Higgins CLE $4,500 $5,400 $15 10.92 WR44 20.50% 7.04
Khadarel Hodge CLE $3,000 $4,500 $10 3.02 WR93 6.00% 2.06
Jarvis Landry CLE $5,500 $5,900 $16 13.64 WR27 23.50% 8.07
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE $3,200 $5,000 $10 2.27 WR103 5.00% 1.72
Austin Hooper CLE $3,900 $5,100 $18 9.91 TE11 18.00% 6.18
Harrison Bryant CLE $2,500 $4,700 $12 3.64 TE35 7.00% 2.40
Injuries to Monitor

WR Odell Beckham (Injured Reserve)

Running Game Outlook

The Browns have run the ball almost 28 times per game just with their RBs. In Week 10, the first game with Nick Chubb in over a month, Kareem Hunt was on the field for 58% of the snaps, but Chubb still saw a 47.5% rushing share (the same as Hunt) in 43% of the snaps. There’s plenty of rushing to go around, given how much the coaches call their numbers. Hunt has the advantage in the passing game where he has a 12.5% target share on the season to Chubb’s 3.5%. And we saw Hunt’s ceiling with this personnel, getting a 21.1% target share in Week 10. As 3.0-point favorites, there’s no way that the gamescript takes either of these two out of the game, but Chubb is more TD-dependent, due to his lower overall volume coming from no role in the passing game.

Passing Game Outlook

Without Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry has become mildly interesting in full-PPR, but let’s keep it 100 here. Cleveland isn’t passing the ball.

Take away Week 10 in a windstorm and Austin Hooper has seen 23 targets in his last three games and those were with Beckham, so he’s in cash consideration at TE. Landry is still the number-one target, but Hooper’s targets should be comparable.

We wanted to make Rashard Higgins happen and he did get a 21.1% target share in the windstorm game, but that was only good for four total targets because the Browns don’t pass much.

Did I mention that the Browns don’t throw the football?

Strong Projections: Kareem Hunt

High Upside Correlations: None

Strong GPP Differentiators: Nick Chubb

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Austin Hooper

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

Philadelphia Eagles Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Carson Wentz PHI $5,700 $7,400 $28 18.32 QB18 36.58 235.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Miles Sanders PHI $6,900 $7,700 $25 17.83 RB7 63% 13%
Boston Scott PHI $5,600 $5,200 $14 5.75 RB51 20% 5%
Corey Clement PHI $4,000 $4,700 $10 0.84 RB80 4% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Travis Fulgham PHI $5,600 $6,800 $23 12.82 WR33 22% 8.82
Jalen Reagor PHI $4,300 $5,600 $19 9.08 WR57 17% 6.81
Greg Ward PHI $4,000 $5,200 $16 7.36 WR72 13% 5.21
Alshon Jeffery PHI $3,700 $4,700 $15 3.36 WR92 6% 2.41
John Hightower PHI $3,000 $4,600 $10 1.14 WR115 2% 0.80
Dallas Goedert PHI $3,800 $5,800 $15 9.16 TE14 15% 5.81
Richard Rodgers PHI $3,500 $5,000 $10 3.89 TE33 7% 2.81
Injuries to Monitor

WR Desean Jackson (Injured Reserve)
TE Zach Ertz (Injured Reserve)

Running Game Outlook

After missing Weeks 7 and 8 with an injury, Miles Sanders came out of the Week 9 bye with a 69.6% rushing share and a 13.9% target share. Everything is back to normal here and we can treat Sanders as a bellcow and he’s priced like it on both sites. With the value lacking, it’s hard to consider him for cash as a slight underdog on the road in a game which projects to no have many plays run. The Eagles are also dropping back to pass a ton. He’s in GPP consideration with the Eagles DST, though, as the Eagles could overcome the spread by leaning on Sanders in a way that doesn’t allow the Browns rushing game to dominate the ball—maybe even forcing the Browns to actually throw.

Passing Game Outlook:

Carson Wentz isn’t a good football player, but he’s dropping back 44.4 times per game this season with a league-leading 9.2 IAY/PA, so there is something to be had there for someone.

Travis Fulgham was a target monster from Weeks 5-through-8, but they came out of the bye week with Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery healthy together for the first time all year and it was a mess. Dallas Goedert was the chalk with no Zach Ertz. His six targets were underwhelming, but six targets isn’t terrible. The problem is that no Eagle saw 20% of the target share in a game where Wentz dropped back 42 times against a bad Giants pass defense. What should be fantasy goodness can look like a fantasy wasteland again in Week 11.

This game’s total has risen from 44.5 to 47 in a matter of just a couple of days, but this game is capped somewhere lower than it should be for us to want it. In a slightly negative gamescript, we can go back to Fulgham in the hopes that he compiles in the 4th quarter. He’s the only real shot at double-digit targets in this offense. We can galbrain Reagor into our lineups because he’s cheap and did lead the Eagles in targets in Week 10, but his volume is capped and we’re leaning on Wentz creating a big play for the guy. Goedert remains in play without Ertz in all formats, but he can turn into a pumpkin in any game, having two of five games with only one target this season.

Strong Projections: Miles Sanders

High Upside Correlations: Miles Sanders + Eagles DST

Strong GPP Differentiators: Travis Fulgham

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Dallas Goedert (DK)

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a part-time political science professor at the City Colleges of Chicago and a professional DFS player. He’s been playing fantasy sports since Mark Brunell and Jimmy Smith paved the way to a rookie championship in 1996. He started playing DFS in 2014 and currently specializes in MLB and NFL cash games, dipping his toes into GPP play. He’s been writing for the Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and Rotogrinders blog networks since 2010. He holds a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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