NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 11: The Grind Down - Bucs vs. Rams

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Tampa Bay Buccaneers DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Tom Brady TBB $11,000 $16,000 $31 20.63 QB10 37.49 290.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Ronald Jones TBB $8,800 $11,500 $25 13.19 RB21 52.50% 7.50%
Leonard Fournette TBB $4,400 $8,000 $17 10.32 RB33 38.50% 7.00%
LeSean McCoy TBB $400 $5,500 $10 0.96 RB75 2.50% 1.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Mike Evans TBB $9,000 $13,000 $19 13.4 WR32 19.00% 7.40
Antonio Brown TBB $7,800 $9,000 $16 11.91 WR39 18.00% 7.01
Chris Godwin TBB $8,400 $13,500 $23 14.93 WR22 21.00% 8.18
Scotty Miller TBB $1,400 $7,500 $10 2.54 WR96 4.00% 1.56
Tyler Johnson TBB $1,000 $6,000 $10 0.51 WR125 1.00% 0.39
Rob Gronkowski TBB $6,200 $8,500 $16 9.88 TE10 15.00% 5.84
Cameron Brate TBB $2,200 $6,500 $10 2.72 TE45 4.50% 1.75
Injuries to Monitor

No notable offensive injuries.

Running Game Outlook

Coming off his best game of the season, Ronald Jones seems to have cemented himself as Tampa Bay’s early-down and situation-neutral back. With Tampa Bay dominating Carolina in Week 10 from start to finish, Jones logged a 58.8% snap rate and racked up 23 carries. After starting to see his snap-rate trend up, Leonard Fournette played just 29-of-80 snaps and totaled just 30-yards on 10 touches.

Moving forward it seems like Tampa Bay’s backfield usage will be entirely game script dependent unless one of Jones or Fournette gets injured. Theoretically, that sets up best for Jones on Monday night as the Bucs are currently listed as 4-point home favorites against the Rams. Still, I’m having a tough time pulling the trigger on rostering Jones, at least on DraftKings, where he’s priced up at $8,800. Jones is much more reasonably priced on FanDuel ($11,500) and I would expect him to be higher owned there. Fournette is cheap on both sites but is still unlikely to see enough usage unless Tampa Bay falls behind early. You should try to limit your exposure to Fournette to lineup builds that tell the story of Tampa Bay playing from behind.

Passing Game Outlook

After a terrible Week 9 performance against the Saints, Angry Tom went on to smash in Week 10 against the Panthers, throwing for 341-yards and 3-touchdowns as well as sneaking one in on the ground. Week 11’s matchup against the Rams is much more difficult for Brady as the Rams have only allowed 2+ touchdown passes in 2-of-9 games this season. Regardless of matchup, Brady has the highest raw projection for this game and is a top play in all formats.

Tampa Bay’s wide receiver production is going to be nearly impossible to predict on a weekly basis. It seems unlikely that Jalen Ramsey will shadow andy specific receiver but if he does, Mike Evans would be the lead candidate. Evans is coming off a season-high 11 targets but remains more of a touchdown-dependent option, especially if he does draw Ramsey’s shadow coverage.

Chris Godwin seems to have the “safest” floor of the Tampa Bay receivers but has yet to top 100-yards this season and has only scored two touchdowns. Despite Godwin’s potentially capped ceiling, I still think he makes for a fine target in all formats. Antonio Brown remains a bit of a wild card and is my favorite Tampa Bay receiver to roster in large-field tournaments.

Robert Gronkowski is only averaging ~4 targets per game over the last three weeks but has remained fantasy relevant, scoring a touchdown in four of the last five weeks. Gronkowski’s price tag on FanDuel ($8,500) sticks out as potentially too cheap even though he’s likely to see limited volume.

Strong Projections: Tom Brady

High Upside Correlations: Tom Brady + Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans and/or Antonio Brown

Strong GPP Differentiators: Rob Gronkowski

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Leonard Fournette, Ryan Succop

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium

Los Angeles Rams Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Jared Goff LAR $9,800 $14,500 $26 18.65 QB17 36.88 276.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Darrell Henderson LAR $5,800 $10,500 $19 8.67 RB38 38% 4%
Malcolm Brown LAR $5,400 $8,500 $14 7.81 RB44 27% 7%
Cam Akers LAR $2,800 $7,000 $12 4.77 RB56 24% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Robert Woods LAR $8,200 $12,500 $24 13.62 WR31 22% 8.42
Josh Reynolds LAR $6,800 $9,500 $15 10.36 WR49 17% 6.50
Cooper Kupp LAR $9,200 $12,000 $18 16.51 WR11 24% 9.18
Van Jefferson LAR $600 $6,000 $10 1.54 WR108 3% 0.96
Nsimba Webster LAR #N/A #N/A $10 0.06 WR137 0% 0.00
Tyler Higbee LAR $4,800 $7,500 $12 7.85 TE15 12% 4.59
Gerald Everett LAR $2,600 $7,000 $10 5.98 TE23 9% 3.44
Injuries to Monitor

No notable offensive injuries.

Running Game Outlook

Just when it looks like Darrell Henderson is starting to solidify himself as the Rams lead back, Cam Akers starts getting more early-down work. This Rams backfield is a bit of a disaster with snaps and workload changing on a weekly basis, which makes it difficult to trust any of these running backs. If forced to choose, Malcolm Brown would be the guy I would bet on to have the biggest fantasy week out of the Rams backfield. Tampa Bay has been very good against the run on early downs which doesn’t bode well for Akers and to a lesser extent Henderson. Any success out of the Rams backfield is likely to come through the air, and Brown has been the most active receiving back throughout the year. I wouldn’t trust Brown in cash lineups but he’s my preferred tournament target.

Passing Game Outlook:

It’s well known by now that Jared Goff is #notgood under pressure. Well, Jared, sorry to tell you but Tampa Bay generates pressure at the third-highest rate in the league. We have seen Sean McVay try to compensate for Goff’s weakness in the past by moving the pocket and calling plays that get the ball out of Goff’s hands quickly. If we see a similar game plan on Monday night, that bodes well for Cooper Kupp (7.4 aDOT) and Robert Woods (7.6 aDOT) who have significantly lower average depth of targets than deep-threat Josh Reynolds (12.8 aDOT). We currently have Kupp projected as the highest-scoring WR of the game. Reynolds has surged of late, averaging 9 targets over the last three-games but I am likely to take an underweight approach on him in tournaments.

Tyler Higbee had his highest yardage (60) game of the season last week but is unlikely to find his way into optimal lineups unless he finds paydirt. Gerald Everett is another low-ceiling touchdown-dependent option, albeit notably cheaper than Higbee on DraftKings.

Strong Projections: Cooper Kupp

High Upside Correlations: Jared Goff + Cooper Kupp + Robert Woods

Strong GPP Differentiators: Josh Reynolds

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, Matt Gay

My Expected Team Exposure: Medium

About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Playing DFS since early 2011, MrTuttle05 is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever changing DFS landscape. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

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