NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 11: The Grind Down - Colts vs. Packers

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Indianapolis Colts DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Philip Rivers IND $5,600 $7,000 $23 18.32 QB17 35.57 257.68
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Jonathan Taylor IND $5,800 $5,700 $23 9.52 RB32 36.00% 4.00%
Nyheim Hines IND $5,200 $6,100 $19 11.34 RB25 20.00% 13.00%
Jordan Wilkins IND $4,000 $5,300 $16 7.96 RB41 39.00% 2.00%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
T.Y. Hilton IND $4,200 $5,400 $12 9.89 WR54 16.50% 6.05
Michael Pittman IND $4,500 $5,500 $16 11.27 WR42 18.00% 6.60
Zach Pascal IND $4,400 $5,300 $14 8.86 WR65 14.50% 5.32
Marcus Johnson IND $3,000 $5,000 $10 3.69 WR89 6.00% 2.20
De’Michael Harris IND $3,000 $4,600 $10 0.29 WR131 0.50% 0.18
Jack Doyle IND $2,500 $4,700 $10 2.33 TE50 4.00% 1.47
Trey Burton IND $3,100 $5,200 $12 7.26 TE17 12.00% 4.40
Injuries to Monitor

Jack Doyle (concussion) practiced Thursday.

Running Game Outlook

The good news is that this is a good matchup for the Indianapolis Colts run game. The bad news is there is virtually no way of knowing which running back, if any, will be fantasy relevant. Head Coach Frank Reich has stated all three running backs will get touches to start games and then they’ll go with the hot hand approach. Nyheim Hines was undoubtedly the hot hand in Week 10 as he parlayed 17 touches into 115-yards and two touchdowns. Hines’ 12 carries against the Titans were by far his most on the season and it would be fool-hardy to project him for a similar rush share against Green Bay. Still, Hines has arguably the “safest” floor of the three Indianapolis running backs. Hines has carved out a role as the team’s third-down back and continues to get the majority of the work in the passing game.

Jonathan Taylor bottomed out in Week 10, playing just 24.3% of the team’s offensive snaps. Taylor continued his inefficiency, totaling just 37 yards on his 9 touches. Taylor has a wide range of outcomes in this spot but it’s tough to take the leap of faith and just assume he sees his role expand against a poor rush defense. The same can be said for Jordan Wilkins who carried the ball just 8 times in Week 10 and was only able to total 28 yards. It seems possible that either Taylor or Wilkins could near 15 carries in this spot but that still may not be enough opportunity to make them fantasy relevant unless they find the end zone. Overall it seems like the risk of rostering an Indianapolis RB outweighs the potential reward.

Passing Game Outlook

Michael Pittman had his breakout game in Week 10 against the Titans, catching 7-of-8 targets for 101 yards. Pittman ran a route on 38-of-40 Rivers dropbacks and led the team with a 22.2% target share. The rookie is very clearly the Colts’ highest upside receiver and is a viable option in all formats this week as he remains cheap ($4,500 DK; $5,500 FD).

I’m not the least bit interested in grabbing exposure to any other Colts pass-catcher unless Jack Doyle (concussion) is unable to clear the concussion protocol by Sunday. If Doyle is out, Mo Alie-Cox ($2,900) and Trey Burton ($3,100) become viable value plays on DraftKings. Notably, Alie-Cox (24) ran more routes than Burton (19) in Week 10, which was the first time that has happened this season when both players have been active. I do slightly prefer Alie-Cox to Burton if Doyle is inactive.

Strong Projections: None

High Upside Correlations: Philip Rivers + Michael Pittman

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Michael Pittman, Mo Alie-Cox / Trey Burton (if Doyle out)

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

Green Bay Packers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Aaron Rodgers GBP $7,000 $9,000 $32 20.17 QB10 37.33 269.99
RB Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Aaron Jones GBP $7,200 $8,200 $31 18.28 RB3 54% 14%
Jamaal Williams GBP $5,700 $5,300 $14 7.95 RB42 30% 5%
AJ Dillon GBP $4,000 $4,900 $10 0.94 RB76 4% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal YHSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Davante Adams GBP $8,600 $9,500 $38 21.61 WR1 32% 12.38
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GBP $4,800 $5,800 $20 7.45 WR72 13% 4.84
Allen Lazard GBP $4,600 $5,500 $15 9.79 WR56 15% 5.80
Equanimeous St. Brown GBP $3,000 $4,500 $10 0.72 WR119 1% 0.39
Darrius Shepherd GBP $3,000 $4,600 $10 1.03 WR114 1% 0.39
Robert Tonyan GBP $3,200 $5,600 $12 7.97 TE16 12% 4.64
Marcedes Lewis GBP $2,500 $4,200 $10 2.51 TE48 4% 1.55
Injuries to Monitor

Davante Adams (ankle) is questionable.

Running Game Outlook

Same thing, different year. We all convince ourselves into an Aaron Jones chalk week and then get frustrated when he splits way too many snaps with Jamaal Williams. That’s what happened in Week 10 as Jones wasn’t a complete flop (thanks to 5-49 receiving) but was still completely underwhelming scoring just 14.5 DK points for $7,100. Jones remains a volatile fantasy commodity that has the ability to hit spiked weeks thanks to unreal efficiency. It seems unlikely that Jones will hit a spiked week against a stout Colts defense but his high ceiling keeps him in play as a low single-digit tournament dart throw.

Passing Game Outlook:

Week 11’s matchup isn’t much better for the Packers passing attack either as Indianapolis ranks fourth in pass-defense DVOA this season. They have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game to the QB position and tenth-fewest to the WR position. To further damper Green Bay’s expectations, Davante Adams is listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Even if Adams is able to suit up, it’s tough to justify paying a gaudy price tag for a potentially banged-up Adams in a touch matchup.

Regardless of Adams’ availability, Allen Lazard is expected back for Green Bay. Lazard has been out since Week 4 with a core injury but showed signs of life earlier this season, totaling 253 receiving yards and scoring two touchdowns over the first three weeks of the season. If Adams is inactive, Lazard makes for a fine tournament target as he would be the likeliest candidate to lead the Packers in target share. I wouldn’t expect Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s role to change regardless of Adams’ status – MVS is a low-probability downfield threat that has surprisingly hit two weeks in a row.

Similar to Lazard, Robert Tonyan only becomes attractive as a tournament target if Adams is unable to suit up. The Colts have yet to allow a touchdown to the TE position this season but Tonyan would be in line for an increased target share if Adams is a no go.

Strong Projections: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones

High Upside Correlations: Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams

Strong GPP Differentiators: Aaron Jones

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Allen Lazard (if Adams inactive), Robert Tonyan (if Adams inactive)

My Expected Team Exposure: Low

About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Playing DFS since early 2011, MrTuttle05 is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever changing DFS landscape. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

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