NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 11: The Grind Down - Raiders vs. Chiefs
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Oakland Raiders DFS Breakdown
Injuries to Monitor
Jalen Richard is questionable.
Running Game Outlook
If you would have told me before the season began that Devontae Booker would work his way into a legitimate RB2 role for the Raiders I wouldn’t have believed you. Well, that happens to be the case as Booker has seen his role steadily increase as the season has progressed. Booker had his best fantasy game of the year last week as he racked up 83-yards on 17 touches and scored twice. Some of Booker’s increase in touch count last week was blowout driven and it would be unwise to project him for that heavy of a workload moving forward. Still, even at our current projections of a 27% rush share and 4% target share, Booker looks like a viable value option on DraftKings where he is only $2,200.
Despite Booker’s solid Week 10, this is clearly still Josh Jacobs backfield. While Jacobs has shown some improvements as a receiver this season, he’s still a bit limited, which makes his role more game script dependent than we typically want out of RB with this high of a price tag. It is worth noting that Jalen Richard (Q) has yet to practice this week and Theo Riddick was placed on the COVID/Reserve list, which could mean that the Raiders have no other option than to use Jacobs/Booker on third-downs and in pass-catching situations. You’ll want to monitor Richard’s status – as crazy as it sounds with him only playing 3-snaps last week, Richard being inactive would help solidify roles for both Jacobs and Booker.
Passing Game Outlook
An ideal game plan for Jon Gruden and the Raiders is to #PoundTheRock and limit the number of ways Derek Carr can lose the game. That’s why Carr is averaging just 24 passing attempts per game over the last three weeks, all Las Vegas wins. With this being a showdown slate, you obviously need to seriously consider rostering Carr in all formats simply for the fact that he’s a QB and is going to have one of the top raw projections in the game. Just make sure you’re rostering Carr in lineups where the “story” is that the Raiders will be forced to throw the ball. While it could hit, I am avoiding rostering Carr and Jacobs together in the same lineup.
Darren Waller has been the Raiders’ top pass-catcher all season long so it’s unsurprising he projects as the top option again this week with a 24% market share. Waller is a strong play in all formats and a decent low-owned CPT target.
Things get a bit murkier after Waller. Shockingly Nelson Agholor has been solid for the majority of the season but a simple look at his game logs is frightening. Agholor was a consistent producer from Weeks 4-7 and then followed up with games of 0, 13.5, and 1.8 DK points over the last three weeks. Logically Agholor’s expected production will increase in games where Carr is forced to throw.
The Raiders still don’t know how to properly use Henry Ruggs but the speedster remains a big-play threat despite not seeing it often his rookie season. Notably, Rugg’s price tag is really cheap on FanDuel ($7,000) which puts him in play in all formats there. I consider him more of a tournament option on DraftKings.
Strong GPP Differentiators: Nelson Agholor
My Expected Team Exposure: Medium
Kansas City Chiefs Projections Breakdown
Injuries to Monitor
Sammy Watkins out.
Running Game Outlook
I think we all knew that the addition of Le’Veon Bell would hurt Clyde Edwards-Helaire fantasy value but not to the extent that it has. CEH is averaging just over 8 touches per game since the addition of Bell and was only able to salvage two of those games thanks to scoring a touchdown – pretty ironic as the biggest knock against CEH to start the season was that he didn’t score a touchdown in Weeks 2-6. Despite CEH’s lack of opportunity, his price tag hasn’t decreased significantly and it’s extremely hard to justify paying his tag in any formats. If you’re rolling the dice on CEH in tournaments, you’re doing so hoping that Andy Reid is going to make a big post-bye adjustment to the backfield distribution.
Similar to CEH, Bell lacks opportunity, averaging just 6.7 touches over his three games with the Chiefs. The difference between CEH and Bell, however, is that Bell is $6,800 cheaper on DraftKings. While Bell is easy to avoid at $9,000 on FanDuel, he’s worth consideration in all formats on DraftKings where he’s just $1,400.
Passing Game Outlook:
Guys, play Patrick Mahomes. He’s the obvious MVP option on FanDuel and his gaudy $13,400 price tag is the only thing keeping him from being the obvious CPT option on DraftKings.
As far as Mahomes’ pass-catchers go, jam in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in cash game lineups and add Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson (and Pringle!) to the mix in large-field tournaments. Hill (24.32%) and Kelce (21.88%) have combined for over 45% of Kansas City’s target share this season and are the likeliest candidates for monster games. Hill is my favorite non-Mahomes MVP option on FanDuel.
Even with Sammy Watkins out, Hardman’s role seemingly changes every week. It is encouraging that Hardman ran a route on 71.3% of Mahomes’ dropbacks in Weeks 8-9 before the team’s Week 10 bye. Assuming he maintains a similar role coming out of the bye, Hardman ($3,600) is underpriced on DraftKings and can be used in all formats. I would argue you can even use him as the CPT option in all formats as a way to jam in the more expensive pieces of Kansas City’s passing attack.
My Expected Team Exposure: High