NFL DFS Picks and Analysis Week 11: The Grind Down - Ravens vs. Titans
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Subscribe Now to Access:
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
GridironIQ: Stats and Data to help influence your projections
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
Player Projections: For every player, game, and team.
Stats and Data App: Create custom GPP projections.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Baltimore Ravens DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | $7,300 | $8,400 | $32 | 24.42 | QB4 | 30.66 | 230.01 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Mark Ingram | BAL | $5,000 | $5,900 | $15 | 8.01 | RB40 | 26.00% | 4.00% |
| J.K. Dobbins | BAL | $5,100 | $5,500 | $17 | 10.36 | RB30 | 26.00% | 9.00% |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | $4,500 | $5,500 | $17 | 5.02 | RB56 | 18.00% | 3.00% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | $5,800 | $5,900 | $16 | 13.25 | WR34 | 23.50% | 7.40 |
| Willie Snead | BAL | $4,500 | $5,200 | $15 | 7.98 | WR69 | 15.50% | 5.14 |
| Devin Duvernay | BAL | $3,000 | $4,800 | $10 | 4.98 | WR83 | 9.50% | 3.15 |
| Miles Boykin | BAL | $3,000 | $4,800 | $10 | 3.55 | WR91 | 7.00% | 2.32 |
| James Proche | BAL | $3,000 | $4,500 | $10 | 0.52 | WR124 | 1.00% | 0.33 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | $4,900 | $6,500 | $20 | 13.24 | TE3 | 23.50% | 7.40 |
| Sean Culkin | BAL | $4,000 | 2.38 | TE | 4.00% | 1.33 |
Injuries to Monitor
None
Running Game Outlook
When Mark Ingram was out in Weeks 7 and 8, the Ravens backfield was actually appealing from a fantasy perspective. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins were producing at a high level and seeing a significant number of touches. However, Mark Ingram returned to the lineup last week against the Patriots and it went right back to being a three-way timeshare. Dobbins led the backfield in snap share (44%), but he only had six touches. I do expect the Ravens to have success on the ground in a matchup against the Titans (19th in DVOA against the run), but I don’t expect one player in this backfield to have enough touches to truly have a breakout game.
Passing Game Outlook
One of two things is sure to happen with the Ravens — their offense is going to figure it out and everyone in DFS is going to say “why didn’t we play a cheap Lamar Jackson against ___ (insert any bad defense),” or I am going to continue to light money on fire. As fun as the latter sounds, I am hoping the former happens sooner rather than later. If you like chasing narratives in DFS, the Ravens have two strong ones in their corner this week. They are coming off of a bad loss against the Patriots and they have a revenge game against the team that knocked them out in the playoffs last season. I don’t know if added motivation will help them play better, but a win this week would certainly taste a bit sweeter.
Despite having a down season and a string of difficult matchups, Jackson has still averaged 21 fantasy points per game. There was concern about Jackson running the ball less earlier in the season, but that’s no longer a worry. Over his last four games, he has averaged 12 rush attempts and 72 rushing yards to go along with 203 passing yards. As soon as the touchdowns start rolling in, Jackson is going to start scoring 30+ fantasy points on a regular basis again. He draws an exploitable matchup this week against the Titans, who are ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews get cheaper and cheaper every week. They continue to struggle, but they are talented players in what should be a very good offense. Add in a matchup against the Titans and they become extremely enticing in tournaments. On the season, the Titans have allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers and the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. As we have seen in the past, they are capable of 100+ yard and multi-touchdown fantasy outings. Willie Snead has been the best Ravens receiver over the last three games, but I’d rather buy low on Brown or Andrews.
Strong Projections: Lamar Jackson
High Upside Correlations: Lamar Jackson + Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews
Strong GPP Differentiators: Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews
Roster Construction Punts/Values: None
My Expected Team Exposure: Low (Cash) / Medium (GPP)
Tennessee Titans Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | $6,100 | $7,300 | $28 | 17.18 | QB22 | 33.85 | 245.00 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | $8,000 | $8,200 | $32 | 17.19 | RB6 | 75% | 7% |
| Jeremy McNichols | TEN | $4,000 | $4,700 | $10 | 2.19 | RB69 | 4% | 3% |
| D’Onta Foreman | TEN | $4,000 | $4,900 | $10 | 2.17 | RB70 | 12% | 1% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| A.J. Brown | TEN | $7,200 | $7,500 | $23 | 14.23 | WR28 | 25% | 8.86 |
| Corey Davis | TEN | $4,800 | $5,900 | $15 | 11.66 | WR41 | 21% | 7.44 |
| Adam Humphries | TEN | $3,200 | $5,000 | $11 | 6.02 | WR80 | 12% | 4.25 |
| Cameron Batson | TEN | $3,000 | $4,500 | $10 | 1.18 | WR112 | 3% | 0.89 |
| Kalif Raymond | TEN | $3,000 | $4,800 | $10 | 0.23 | WR132 | 1% | 0.18 |
| Jonnu Smith | TEN | $4,700 | $5,800 | $17 | 9.34 | TE11 | 16% | 5.67 |
| Anthony Firkser | TEN | $2,500 | $4,800 | $10 | 6.06 | TE20 | 11% | 3.90 |
Injuries to Monitor
Adam Humphries (Questionable)
Running Game Outlook
The Titans will look to replicate the game plan they used against the Ravens in the playoffs last year. That game reminded me of when reporters asked Doug Collins about Michael Jordan’s game winner in the playoffs. He said, “that play was, give the ball to Michael and everyone else get the f*** out of the way.” The Titans essentially did that with Derrick Henry, although I suppose they still needed everyone to block. He finished the game with 35 touches, 204 yards, and a touchdown.
In terms of the matchup, this one is far from ideal. On the season, the Ravens are ranked third in DVOA against the run, 11th in defensive adjusted line yards, and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The one positive for Henry and the Titans is that it sounds like Baltimore could be without Brandon Williams, who is their best run stopper on the defensive. There is always a path for Henry to have a breakout game and I always like to get a few shares when he’s expected to be low owned.
Passing Game Outlook:
Ryan Tannehill is having another nice season and has led the Titans to a 6-3 record. Unfortunately, he’s not going to crack my player pool this week. The Titans have to go into Baltimore and face a Ravens team that has all the motivation narratives you could possible ask for. They have an elite secondary, they are ranked 10th in DVOA against the pass, and they have the eighth highest adjusted sack rate. There is more risk than upside with Tannehill this week.
A.J. Brown is the one wideout on the Titans that you could potentially include in your player pool this week. He’s one of a handful of receivers that doesn’t need a good matchup to put up 100+ yards and a couple of touchdowns. The Ravens have some great cornerbacks and safeties, but Brown put up 30 fantasy points against the Steelers and 23 fantasy points against the Bears. If the Titans get down early and are forced to abandon the run, Brown could easily find his way to double-digit targets. The likes of Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Cameron Batson, and Jonnu Smith can be avoided.
Strong Projections: None
High Upside Correlations: None
Strong GPP Differentiators: Derrick Henry
Roster Construction Punts/Values: None
My Expected Team Exposure: Low
Comments