NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Browns vs. Buccaneers

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
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Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Cleveland Browns DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Jacoby Brissett CLE $5,400 $6,900 16.48 QB22 35.17 240.59
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Nick Chubb CLE $7,800 $8,100 15.56 RB18 57.96% 7.51%
Kareem Hunt CLE $4,900 $5,800 9.25 RB36 27.25% 9.07%
D’Ernest Johnson CLE $4,000 $4,600 0.24 RB95 0.77% 0.31%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Amari Cooper CLE $6,400 $7,800 13.72 WR26 24.65% 8.67
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE $4,800 $6,300 11.14 WR41 19.02% 6.69
David Bell CLE $3,300 $4,900 5.09 WR82 9.78% 3.44
Anthony Schwartz CLE $3,000 $4,600 0.78 WR132 1.47% 0.52
Michael Woods CLE $3,000 $4,600 0.35 WR146 0.81% 0.28
David Njoku CLE $3,600 $5,600 10.21 TE9 16.54% 5.82
Harrison Bryant CLE $3,000 $4,900 5.29 TE30 9.95% 3.50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Tom Brady TBB $5,800 $7,400 18.89 QB11 36.99 275.22
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Leonard Fournette TBB $5,800 $7,200 8.25 RB40 33% 5%
Rachaad White TBB $5,100 $6,400 13.82 RB22 54% 10%
Ke’Shawn Vaughn TBB $4,000 $4,800 0.45 RB87 1% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Mike Evans TBB $6,700 $7,600 14.49 WR18 22% 8.01
Chris Godwin TBB $6,000 $7,000 15.58 WR14 24% 8.87
Julio Jones TBB $4,000 $5,400 8.51 WR58 13% 4.96
Breshad Perriman TBB $3,000 $4,700 0.63 WR133 1% 0.41
Scotty Miller TBB $3,100 $4,900 1.07 WR127 2% 0.80
Cade Otton TBB $3,300 $4,900 7.5 TE17 10% 3.88
Cameron Brate TBB $2,900 $4,600 3.9 TE39 7% 2.60
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— LV is by far the worst defense in the league by DVOA. CLE is next-worst with a pretty large gap between them and #3. This game total is only 42.5 and TB’s been bad in a lot of cases, but this is a get-right spot.

Leonard Fournette (hip) was downgraded to doubtful on Friday, so Rachaad White becomes a premium target for value. A target that everyone will see and many will utilize. It’s a slightly positive gamescript for him, so why not with Ke’Shawn Vaughn as the only other RB on the depth chart?

— This is a great spot to pivot onto the much lesser-owned Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. A great spot to just stack the low-owned Tom Brady with one of or both of them. Godwin has seen 13, 13, 11, 10, and 8 targets in recent games, while Evans has seen 15, 11, 11, and 6. They can be negatively correlated, but if this is a game where Nick Chubb doesn’t hog the ball, Brady can drop back 50-plus times and feed both of these guys.

— We’ll get to Chubb, but I wanna stick to this idea of gamestacking this low-owned spot by bringing it back with Amari Cooper or Donovan Peoples-Jones. Cooper has had double-digit targets in five of ten games with a 12.33 aDOT on the season, while Peoples-Jones has an 11.11 aDOT and a cheap price tag. These aren’t plays that project well as one-offs, but they correlate well with the TB passing attack. Again, if Chubb hogs the ball, this will be a slow game. If the TB passing attack dominates, CLE will be forced to throw and Jacoby Brissett is getting it done for these guys in distress.

— But if TB’s passing attack isn’t great, Chubb can have a great game, no matter what the result. He doesn’t project well but gets north of 20 opportunities in a slow game. I doubt this happens because of the CLE defense, but Chubb is the next-level pivot off of White and the TB passing game.

Strong Projections: Rachaad White, Chris Godwin

Strong Stack Options: Tom Brady + Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans with Amari Cooper

Strong GPP Differentiators: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Rachaad White, Donovan Peoples-Jones

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Chris Godwin o59.5 receiving yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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