NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Chargers vs. Cardinals

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.


Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Arizona Cardinals DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Kyler Murray ARI $6,800 $7,800 18.49 QB13 35.12 238.45
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
James Conner ARI $6,600 $7,000 13.42 RB24 52.30% 11.32%
Keaontay Ingram ARI $4,800 $5,400 5.29 RB56 19.34% 6.19%
Corey Clement ARI $4,500 $4,500 0.71 RB83 5.04% 0.13%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
DeAndre Hopkins ARI $7,700 $8,400 27.51 WR1 44.14% 15.50
A.J. Green ARI $3,400 $5,300 5.33 WR78 10.51% 3.69
Greg Dortch ARI $3,100 $4,900 3.46 WR100 5.52% 1.94
Robbie Anderson ARI $3,100 $5,100 2.75 WR105 6.80% 2.39
Javon Wims ARI $3,000 $4,500 0.15 WR157 0.32% 0.11
Trey McBride ARI $3,100 $4,800 4.78 TE33 8.80% 3.09
Maxx Williams ARI $2,500 $4,000 3.97 TE38 6.00% 2.11

Los Angeles Chargers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Justin Herbert LAC $7,000 $7,900 20.12 QB6 36.46 260.67
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Austin Ekeler LAC $8,500 $8,800 20.85 RB4 55% 21%
Isaiah Spiller LAC $4,100 $4,800 2.88 RB71 19% 1%
Sony Michel LAC $4,200 $4,700 2.03 RB73 11% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Josh Palmer LAC $5,400 $6,800 14.68 WR17 22% 8.15
Keenan Allen LAC $6,100 $7,300 14.29 WR21 21% 7.78
DeAndre Carter LAC $3,700 $5,900 9.92 WR50 15% 5.43
Michael Bandy LAC $3,000 $4,700 2.06 WR114 4% 1.40
Jason Moore LAC $3,000 $4,600 0.42 WR142 1% 0.20
Gerald Everett LAC $4,400 $5,200 7.5 TE18 10% 3.72
Tre’ McKitty LAC $2,800 $4,500 1.73 TE60 3% 0.98
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— The Chargers will head to the desert to face the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites. This is another contest with a healthy total (47.5), while Kyler Murray is expected to return after missing the past couple of games with a hamstring injury.

Colt McCoy isn’t the worst backup, but he certainly doesn’t bring the rushing element Kyler brings to this offense. That said, Murray only ranks 7th in the league among QBs in rushing yards this season (359), while he’s only found the end zone twice. The Chargers are just 30th in DVOA against the run, so perhaps Kyler can find some room to run in this one. Murray’s a bit cheaper ($6,800 DK, $7,800 FD) than usual these days, and his skill set is the kind we like when shooting for ceilings in tournaments. DeAndre Hopkins ranks among the league leaders in target share (32%) since his return 5 games ago, while Greg Dortch should once again step into a big role with Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore sidelined. Dortch ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) is one of the best values on the entire slate, and he’s a core part of the conversation in all formats. Punting with Dortch makes it easy to afford Murray + Hopkins in your Arizona stacks. Trey McBride is taking most of the tight end snaps with Zach Ertz out, but we can do better this week.

James Conner is really the last man standing in this backfield, with Keontay Ingram playing a very minor role. Conner is never the most appealing option at the position, but he has found paydirt 3 times over the last 2 games.

— The Chargers just can’t seem to keep their players upright. Keenan Allen made his long-awaited return last week, but Mike Williams didn’t get through the game healthy. Williams has been missing practices this week with an ankle sprain, which puts his status for Sunday seriously in doubt. Allen was on a pitch count in his return, but still managed to haul in 5 of his 8 targets for 94 yards on nearly 70% of the Chargers’ snaps. His workload should continue to improve, and he’s still a reasonable value on DraftKings ($6,100) to pair with Justin Herbert in tourneys. Joshua Palmer should fill in for Williams if he’s out, which puts him right back into consideration at $5,400 on DK and $6,800 on FD. Gerald Everett (groin) is among the walking wounded, and not a huge priority outside of stacks even if he suits up.

— As usual, the focal point for the Bolts offensively is Austin Ekeler. He’s only drawn 52% of the carries this season, but you can’t argue with a 21% target share out of the backfield. There are plenty of viable cheaper options out there at running back this week, which could help keep Ekeler’s GPP ownership relatively in check.

Strong Projections: Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins

Strong Stack Options: Murray + Hopkins/Dortch, Herbert + Allen/Palmer

Strong GPP Differentiators: Keenan Allen, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Greg Dortch, Joshua Palmer

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Justin Herbert o275.5 Passing Yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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