NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Chargers vs. Cardinals
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Arizona Cardinals DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | ARI | $6,800 | $7,800 | 18.49 | QB13 | 35.12 | 238.45 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| James Conner | ARI | $6,600 | $7,000 | 13.42 | RB24 | 52.30% | 11.32% |
| Keaontay Ingram | ARI | $4,800 | $5,400 | 5.29 | RB56 | 19.34% | 6.19% |
| Corey Clement | ARI | $4,500 | $4,500 | 0.71 | RB83 | 5.04% | 0.13% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | $7,700 | $8,400 | 27.51 | WR1 | 44.14% | 15.50 |
| A.J. Green | ARI | $3,400 | $5,300 | 5.33 | WR78 | 10.51% | 3.69 |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | $3,100 | $4,900 | 3.46 | WR100 | 5.52% | 1.94 |
| Robbie Anderson | ARI | $3,100 | $5,100 | 2.75 | WR105 | 6.80% | 2.39 |
| Javon Wims | ARI | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.15 | WR157 | 0.32% | 0.11 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | $3,100 | $4,800 | 4.78 | TE33 | 8.80% | 3.09 |
| Maxx Williams | ARI | $2,500 | $4,000 | 3.97 | TE38 | 6.00% | 2.11 |
Los Angeles Chargers Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | $7,000 | $7,900 | 20.12 | QB6 | 36.46 | 260.67 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | $8,500 | $8,800 | 20.85 | RB4 | 55% | 21% |
| Isaiah Spiller | LAC | $4,100 | $4,800 | 2.88 | RB71 | 19% | 1% |
| Sony Michel | LAC | $4,200 | $4,700 | 2.03 | RB73 | 11% | 2% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | $5,400 | $6,800 | 14.68 | WR17 | 22% | 8.15 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | $6,100 | $7,300 | 14.29 | WR21 | 21% | 7.78 |
| DeAndre Carter | LAC | $3,700 | $5,900 | 9.92 | WR50 | 15% | 5.43 |
| Michael Bandy | LAC | $3,000 | $4,700 | 2.06 | WR114 | 4% | 1.40 |
| Jason Moore | LAC | $3,000 | $4,600 | 0.42 | WR142 | 1% | 0.20 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | $4,400 | $5,200 | 7.5 | TE18 | 10% | 3.72 |
| Tre’ McKitty | LAC | $2,800 | $4,500 | 1.73 | TE60 | 3% | 0.98 |
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— The Chargers will head to the desert to face the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites. This is another contest with a healthy total (47.5), while Kyler Murray is expected to return after missing the past couple of games with a hamstring injury.
— Colt McCoy isn’t the worst backup, but he certainly doesn’t bring the rushing element Kyler brings to this offense. That said, Murray only ranks 7th in the league among QBs in rushing yards this season (359), while he’s only found the end zone twice. The Chargers are just 30th in DVOA against the run, so perhaps Kyler can find some room to run in this one. Murray’s a bit cheaper ($6,800 DK, $7,800 FD) than usual these days, and his skill set is the kind we like when shooting for ceilings in tournaments. DeAndre Hopkins ranks among the league leaders in target share (32%) since his return 5 games ago, while Greg Dortch should once again step into a big role with Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore sidelined. Dortch ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) is one of the best values on the entire slate, and he’s a core part of the conversation in all formats. Punting with Dortch makes it easy to afford Murray + Hopkins in your Arizona stacks. Trey McBride is taking most of the tight end snaps with Zach Ertz out, but we can do better this week.
— James Conner is really the last man standing in this backfield, with Keontay Ingram playing a very minor role. Conner is never the most appealing option at the position, but he has found paydirt 3 times over the last 2 games.
— The Chargers just can’t seem to keep their players upright. Keenan Allen made his long-awaited return last week, but Mike Williams didn’t get through the game healthy. Williams has been missing practices this week with an ankle sprain, which puts his status for Sunday seriously in doubt. Allen was on a pitch count in his return, but still managed to haul in 5 of his 8 targets for 94 yards on nearly 70% of the Chargers’ snaps. His workload should continue to improve, and he’s still a reasonable value on DraftKings ($6,100) to pair with Justin Herbert in tourneys. Joshua Palmer should fill in for Williams if he’s out, which puts him right back into consideration at $5,400 on DK and $6,800 on FD. Gerald Everett (groin) is among the walking wounded, and not a huge priority outside of stacks even if he suits up.
— As usual, the focal point for the Bolts offensively is Austin Ekeler. He’s only drawn 52% of the carries this season, but you can’t argue with a 21% target share out of the backfield. There are plenty of viable cheaper options out there at running back this week, which could help keep Ekeler’s GPP ownership relatively in check.
Strong Projections: Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins
Strong Stack Options: Murray + Hopkins/Dortch, Herbert + Allen/Palmer
Strong GPP Differentiators: Keenan Allen, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Greg Dortch, Joshua Palmer
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Justin Herbert o275.5 Passing Yards (PrizePicks)
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