NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Commanders vs. Falcons

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Washington Commanders DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Taylor Heinicke WAS $5,300 $6,500 16.72 QB16 31.83 225.04
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Antonio Gibson WAS $5,400 $6,100 14.5 RB23 40.54% 12.09%
Brian Robinson WAS $5,100 $6,100 10.06 RB33 45.26% 3.47%
Jonathan Williams WAS $4,000 $4,500 0.16 RB102 0.65% 0.09%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Terry McLaurin WAS $5,800 $7,500 15.65 WR15 27.17% 8.65
Jahan Dotson WAS $4,000 $5,800 6.25 WR77 12.27% 3.91
Curtis Samuel WAS $5,000 $6,500 9.92 WR47 17.27% 5.50
Cam Sims WAS $3,000 $5,000 2.01 WR114 4.19% 1.33
Dyami Brown WAS $3,000 $4,600 0.72 WR134 1.44% 0.46
Logan Thomas WAS $3,000 $5,200 7.18 TE21 13.18% 4.20
John Bates WAS $2,600 $4,200 4.46 TE36 7.24% 2.30

Atlanta Falcons Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Marcus Mariota ATL $5,500 $7,000 15.66 QB21 25.66 170.91
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL $6,000 $6,800 11.87 RB28 37% 11%
Tyler Allgeier ATL $4,900 $5,900 7.88 RB42 33% 6%
Caleb Huntley ATL $4,000 $4,900 2.15 RB74 8% 2%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Drake London ATL $4,900 $6,100 11.59 WR35 31% 7.86
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL $3,600 $5,300 7.49 WR65 16% 4.19
Damiere Byrd ATL $3,100 $5,200 4.72 WR90 10% 2.60
Khadarel Hodge ATL $3,000 $5,100 1 WR125 2% 0.61
Frank Darby ATL $3,000 $4,500 0.85 WR129 2% 0.60
MyCole Pruitt ATL $2,500 $4,700 3.63 TE43 8% 2.01
Parker Hesse ATL $2,500 $4,200 2.56 TE50 6% 1.55
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

– Don’t gloss over this low total (40.5)

– I don’t think it’s Parker Hesse season, so it’s time to talk about Terry McLaurin with Drake London as a secondary stack. McLaurin has had 8, 8, 9, 11, and 7 targets with Taylor Heinicke under center, despite Heinicke not seeing 40 dropbacks at all. London has seen very little volume as of late, but with Kyle Pitts (knee) on IR, the ball’s got to go somewhere and London is there and talented and stuff.

– The WAS backfield is playable. Flip a coin and plug Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson in against this defense ranked 24th by DVOA against the run. Both won’t be ho-hum. One of them should crush. In MME, just play them both fairly equally.

– The ATL backfield, on the other hand, is untouchable. There’s more room for Cordarrelle Patterson to get used as a gadget without Pitts, so he’s a fine gamble, but he’s a big gamble.

Marcus Mariota keeps projecting alright, but he’s only averaged 27.5 dropbacks per game this season. We can’t do this. Which is an argument for gambling on Patterson to do Patterson things for a moment in time over London.

— We can play Hesse as a punt. Don’t let anyone tell you what to expect. Just, yeah, he can be used as a punt.

Strong Projections: Terry McLaurin

Strong Stack Options: Terry McLaurin + Cordarrelle Patterson or Drake London

Strong GPP Differentiators: Cordarrelle Patterson

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Parker Hesse

Favorite Prop Site Bet: (sigh) Marcus Mariota o157.5 passing yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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