NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Commanders vs. Falcons
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Washington Commanders DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | $5,300 | $6,500 | 16.72 | QB16 | 31.83 | 225.04 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | $5,400 | $6,100 | 14.5 | RB23 | 40.54% | 12.09% |
| Brian Robinson | WAS | $5,100 | $6,100 | 10.06 | RB33 | 45.26% | 3.47% |
| Jonathan Williams | WAS | $4,000 | $4,500 | 0.16 | RB102 | 0.65% | 0.09% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | $5,800 | $7,500 | 15.65 | WR15 | 27.17% | 8.65 |
| Jahan Dotson | WAS | $4,000 | $5,800 | 6.25 | WR77 | 12.27% | 3.91 |
| Curtis Samuel | WAS | $5,000 | $6,500 | 9.92 | WR47 | 17.27% | 5.50 |
| Cam Sims | WAS | $3,000 | $5,000 | 2.01 | WR114 | 4.19% | 1.33 |
| Dyami Brown | WAS | $3,000 | $4,600 | 0.72 | WR134 | 1.44% | 0.46 |
| Logan Thomas | WAS | $3,000 | $5,200 | 7.18 | TE21 | 13.18% | 4.20 |
| John Bates | WAS | $2,600 | $4,200 | 4.46 | TE36 | 7.24% | 2.30 |
Atlanta Falcons Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | $5,500 | $7,000 | 15.66 | QB21 | 25.66 | 170.91 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | $6,000 | $6,800 | 11.87 | RB28 | 37% | 11% |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | $4,900 | $5,900 | 7.88 | RB42 | 33% | 6% |
| Caleb Huntley | ATL | $4,000 | $4,900 | 2.15 | RB74 | 8% | 2% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Drake London | ATL | $4,900 | $6,100 | 11.59 | WR35 | 31% | 7.86 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | $3,600 | $5,300 | 7.49 | WR65 | 16% | 4.19 |
| Damiere Byrd | ATL | $3,100 | $5,200 | 4.72 | WR90 | 10% | 2.60 |
| Khadarel Hodge | ATL | $3,000 | $5,100 | 1 | WR125 | 2% | 0.61 |
| Frank Darby | ATL | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.85 | WR129 | 2% | 0.60 |
| MyCole Pruitt | ATL | $2,500 | $4,700 | 3.63 | TE43 | 8% | 2.01 |
| Parker Hesse | ATL | $2,500 | $4,200 | 2.56 | TE50 | 6% | 1.55 |
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
– Don’t gloss over this low total (40.5)
– I don’t think it’s Parker Hesse season, so it’s time to talk about Terry McLaurin with Drake London as a secondary stack. McLaurin has had 8, 8, 9, 11, and 7 targets with Taylor Heinicke under center, despite Heinicke not seeing 40 dropbacks at all. London has seen very little volume as of late, but with Kyle Pitts (knee) on IR, the ball’s got to go somewhere and London is there and talented and stuff.
– The WAS backfield is playable. Flip a coin and plug Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson in against this defense ranked 24th by DVOA against the run. Both won’t be ho-hum. One of them should crush. In MME, just play them both fairly equally.
– The ATL backfield, on the other hand, is untouchable. There’s more room for Cordarrelle Patterson to get used as a gadget without Pitts, so he’s a fine gamble, but he’s a big gamble.
– Marcus Mariota keeps projecting alright, but he’s only averaged 27.5 dropbacks per game this season. We can’t do this. Which is an argument for gambling on Patterson to do Patterson things for a moment in time over London.
— We can play Hesse as a punt. Don’t let anyone tell you what to expect. Just, yeah, he can be used as a punt.
Strong Projections: Terry McLaurin
Strong Stack Options: Terry McLaurin + Cordarrelle Patterson or Drake London
Strong GPP Differentiators: Cordarrelle Patterson
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Parker Hesse
Favorite Prop Site Bet: (sigh) Marcus Mariota o157.5 passing yards (PrizePicks)
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