NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Dolphins vs. Texans

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.


Sports Betting Lines and Overview


Miami Dolphins DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Tua Tagovailoa MIA $6,900 $8,300 21.43 QB5 31.51 250.80
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Jeff Wilson MIA $5,900 $7,700 15.54 RB20 47.00% 8.85%
Raheem Mostert MIA $5,700 $6,300 11.88 RB28 32.41% 8.25%
Salvon Ahmed MIA $4,000 $4,700 0.3 RB91 1.56% 0.09%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Tyreek Hill MIA $8,800 $9,200 21.06 WR4 30.87% 9.73
Jaylen Waddle MIA $7,300 $8,100 15 WR14 23.15% 7.29
Trent Sherfield MIA $3,200 $5,400 5.8 WR72 10.40% 3.28
Cedrick Wilson MIA $3,000 $4,800 1.25 WR125 2.03% 0.64
River Cracraft MIA $3,000 $4,600 0.12 WR159 0.32% 0.10
Mike Gesicki MIA $3,500 $5,000 7.44 TE19 10.41% 3.28
Durham Smythe MIA $2,500 $4,300 1.86 TE59 2.41% 0.76

Houston Texans Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Kyle Allen HOU $4,800 $6,100 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Dameon Pierce HOU $6,100 $6,900 17.14 RB12 83% 12%
Rex Burkhead HOU $4,500 $4,800 3.82 RB61 5% 7%
Eno Benjamin HOU $4,600 $5,000 1.03 RB79 2% 1%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Brandin Cooks HOU $5,200 $6,400 10.35 WR47 19% 6.44
Nico Collins HOU $4,100 $6,000 10.79 WR42 20% 6.89
Chris Moore HOU $3,800 $5,500 7.33 WR63 12% 4.18
Phillip Dorsett HOU $3,000 $5,000 3.19 WR104 6% 2.07
Amari Rodgers HOU $3,000 $4,600 0.42 WR141 1% 0.32
Teagan Quitoriano HOU $2,500 $4,200 1.1 TE68 2% 0.79
Jordan Akins HOU $2,700 $4,600 5.33 TE30 9% 3.01
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— We kick off the main slate with the Dolphins and Texans. There are no byes this week, which means we get a sizable main slate in addition to the Thanksgiving slate and the usual primetime games. The Dolphins have been close to unstoppable this season and are currently riding a four-game winning streak. They are currently tied with the Bills atop the AFC East with a record of 7-3. It would surprise everyone if they didn’t add another win to their resume this week against the Texans, who have dropped to 1-8-1 on the season. This game features a 13-point spread and a 46-point total.

— The Dolphins should be able to move the ball at will in this game. We haven’t seen a defense slow down this passing attack and the Texans own the worst rush defense in the league. It will be interesting to see how Mike McDaniel attacks Houston as a large home favorite. While you can run on the Texans, you can pass on them as well. They are ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA. Tua Tagovailoa offers a high floor, he has plenty of upside, and he has two obvious stacking mates at wide receiver. The only question is whether the Dolphins will keep their foot on the gas if they build up a big lead early in this game.

Tyreek Hill has topped 30 fantasy points (DK scoring) in three of his last five games. He has an elite target share, an elite air yards share, and he’s the number one wideout on one of the best offenses in football. He’s one of the best spend-up options each and every week he’s on the main slate. Ultimately, his appeal in cash games comes down to the value that we have to choose from. As always, he’s an elite tournament play. Jaylen Waddle is a nice pivot off of Hill in tournaments. Both players are capable of breaking the slate against a very beatable Texans secondary. It’s hard to see the double-stack getting there unless you have faith in Houston’s offense. Mike Gesicki has had a couple of nice games this season, but there are better options at the tight end position.

— The Dolphins may opt to run the ball 30+ times against a team that is ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA, 30th in defensive adjusted line yards, and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Arguably the riskiest part of targeting Miami’s passing game is that the running backs do all of the damage on the ground. The matchup and game script set up perfectly, but we do have a timeshare on our hands. In his first two games with the team, Jeff Wilson has played on 55% of snaps and has turned 31 touches into 214 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. In that same stretch, Raheem Mostert has played on 38% of the snaps and has turned 21 touches into 113 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. My best guess is we see a 60/40 split in favor of Wilson.

Davis Mills was one of the more impressive rookie quarterbacks last season, but has failed to take that sophomore leap. He has only topped 20 fantasy points one time all season and the Texans have been trailing by large margins in nearly every game. To make matters worse, Mills has really struggled on the road throughout his career. This is a good matchup and the game script sets up well, but I have more interest in the Dolphins defense than I do in Mills.

Brandin Cooks was very productive early in the season, but vented his frustration about not getting traded at the deadline. The team decided to sit him one game and since then, he’s caught 7-of-13 targets for 107 yards (over two games). Nico Collins has actually played more snaps and has seen more targets than Cooks over the last two weeks and is still significantly cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If chasing one of these wideouts as part of your Miami stacks, Collins provides the better value. As for the tight ends, there are too many players splitting snaps and routes for any of them to deserve consideration in DFS.

Dameon Pierce is coming off of his worst game of the season. Despite a favorable matchup at home, he could only muster up eight yards on 10 carries last week. He actually had negative yards before contact for the game, which shows how bad the offensive line played against the Commanders. We know the talent is there for Pierce and we know the Texans are willing to give him the ball 20+ times, but there is a lot working against Pierce in this one. The Dolphins have been tough against the run and the Texans could be forced to abandon the running game early if they fall behind.

Strong Projections: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill

Strong Stack Options: Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle

Strong GPP Differentiators: Jaylen Waddle, Jeff Wilson, Dameon Pierce

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Nico Collins

Favorite Prop Site Bet: TBD

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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