NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Jaguars vs. Ravens

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Created 2 months ago, Last Updated 2 months ago

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down

LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.

Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.

All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.

All Best Bets for PrizePicks:

Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.

Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Jacksonville Jaguars DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

Baltimore Ravens Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— The Jaguars are coming off of a bye after losing to the Chiefs two weeks ago. The advanced metrics still like this team and they have a positive point differential on the season, but are only 3-7 in the standings and unlikely to make a run at the playoffs. The Ravens didn’t exactly play great against the Panthers last week, but they did enough to pick up their fourth win in a row. They now sit atop the AFC North and are firmly in the running for the top seed in the AFC. This game features a 4-point spread and a 44-point total.

— Trevor Lawrence looks like a franchise quarterback at times, but has made some untimely mistakes this season that have cost the Jaguars a few wins. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s always in consideration when talking about cheap quarterback plays, but he has never been a priority on a main slate. That’s the case again this week, as he’s cheap and playing at home against the Ravens. It’s not a great matchup by any means, but home underdog quarterbacks tend to outperform expectations.

— The last time we saw Christian Kirk he caught 9-of-12 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs. A lot of that production was aided by game script, but the Jaguars often find themselves playing with a deficit. Kirk has been Lawrence’s favorite target all year, especially down near the goal line. Zay Jones continues to project as a good value due to his high target share, but he continues to underwhelm on a weekly basis. The one positive is that he’ll be low-owned and that he’s facing a defense that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers. Evan Engram has struggled each of the last two games and is facing a team that defends the tight end position well.

— It was only a matter of time before Travis Etienne had a down game, but the outing against the Chiefs will stick out in everyone’s mind because he was one of the highest owned plays on the slate that week. We should have no concern about his workload moving forward, as he’s played on at least 78% of the snaps in four straight games. His role in the passing game leaves much to be desired, but it’s not like he’s incapable of catching passes. He just hasn’t been the safety blanket for Lawrence. Regardless, he has a path to 20+ touches at home against the Ravens.

— Lamar Jackson was breaking slates left and right earlier this season, but has looked very human over the last couple of months. He used to be a lock for 20+ fantasy points, but he has only reached that mark one time in his last seven games. The rushing yards have been there, but he has lacked rushing touchdowns and passing efficiency. Having Mark Andrews back certainly helps on the passing front and this week he faces a defense that is ranked 31st in DVOA against the pass. I wish Jackson was cheaper, but he’s still a strong tournament play in this matchup.

— With Rashod Bateman out, Demarcus Robinson had his best game of the season last week against the Panthers. He caught 8-of-9 targets for 128 yards. The box score from that game was a tad misleading, as the Ravens had five drives stall out without points in Carolina’s half of the field. It feels like we are chasing points with Robinson, but he’s cheap and the Jaguars struggle against the pass. If he gains steam throughout the week, the natural pivot is Devin Duvernay at a similar price point. Andrews played on 93% of snaps in his first game back from injury, so there are no concerns about his playing time moving forward. It’s always tough to find the cap space for expensive tight ends, but Andrews has slate-breaking upside and is facing a team that struggles to defend tight ends.

— We have to take a wait and see approach with Baltimore’s backfield. Gus Edwards looked great in his limited playing time, but ended up missing last week’s game with an injury. He’s listed as questionable early in the week, so we’ll need to monitor his status. If he is out again, Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill will split the touches in this backfield. Regardless, we are looking at a timeshare and a difficult matchup against the Jaguars, who are much better against the run than they are against the pass.

Strong Projections: Travis Etienne, Mark Andrews

Strong Stack Options: Lamar Jackson + one wideout

Strong GPP Differentiators: Christian Kirk, Lamar Jackson

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Zay Jones, Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Lamar Jackson over 200.5 passing yards (PrizePicks)