NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Jets vs. Bears

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

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LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

New York Jets DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Mike White NYJ $4,900 $6,200 15.12 QB27 30.61 220.71
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Michael Carter NYJ $5,400 $6,200 12.69 RB26 38.40% 11.40%
James Robinson NYJ $5,200 $6,200 8.63 RB38 37.84% 3.09%
Ty Johnson NYJ $4,100 $4,900 3.78 RB61 10.26% 4.34%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Garrett Wilson NYJ $4,300 $6,000 13.01 WR28 24.20% 7.41
Corey Davis NYJ $4,200 $5,500 9.65 WR50 17.27% 5.29
Denzel Mims NYJ $3,100 $5,200 1.38 WR118 2.76% 0.84
Elijah Moore NYJ $3,500 $5,300 5.95 WR81 10.17% 3.11
Braxton Berrios NYJ $3,000 $4,800 0.93 WR127 1.91% 0.58
Tyler Conklin NYJ $3,100 $4,800 8.33 TE16 16.68% 5.11
C.J. Uzomah NYJ $2,500 $4,300 3.67 TE42 6.71% 2.05

Chicago Bears Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Justin Fields CHI $7,400 $8,500 19.14 QB9 26.43 179.96
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
David Montgomery CHI $6,400 $7,500 14.31 RB25 55% 10%
Trestan Ebner CHI $4,300 $4,900 4.02 RB57 16% 6%
Darrynton Evans CHI $4,000 $4,500 0.18 RB100 0% 0%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Darnell Mooney CHI $5,100 $6,100 11.21 WR37 26% 6.98
Equanimeous St. Brown CHI $3,200 $5,000 4.43 WR96 11% 2.96
Chase Claypool CHI $3,900 $5,500 7.41 WR66 17% 4.58
Dante Pettis CHI $3,000 $4,800 2.17 WR111 5% 1.41
Byron Pringle CHI $3,000 $4,700 1.16 WR122 3% 0.67
Cole Kmet CHI $3,900 $5,300 8.21 TE17 19% 4.97
Trevon Wesco CHI $2,500 $4,200 0.75 TE76 2% 0.50
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

– There’s a little bit of injury and a little bit of drama to unpack here.

Justin Fields has a separation in his non-throwing shoulder. Considering that he isn’t a conventional pocket passer, nor does he have an offensive line that resembles anything NFL-caliber, it’s very difficult to just dial him in against a defense that ranks 6th in DVOA. That said, his wheels are fine, and he can run all over anyone. So you’re totally allowed to play him with Cole Kmet, who’s seen five red zone targets in the last four games.

– As for the drama, Zach Wilson (bad) is out this week and Mike White is in. The Jets have promising downfield talent, but White is a checkdown machine. We should really only like Garrett Wilson and Michael Carter in this passing game, as they work the shorter field; and, yeah, CHI is 30th in pass defense DVOA.

– There isn’t much else to say about this game. The NYJ D/ST is in an excellent spot, but they’re pricey. Overall, though, this game is 38.5 points of nonsense. Really only looking to stack some short receptions on DK with Wilson and Carter.

– Beware with Carter, though. He and James Robinson are in a full-blown timeshare.

Strong Projections: Jets D/ST

Strong Stack Options: Michael Carter + Jets D/ST

Strong GPP Differentiators: None

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Garrett Wilson

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Jets D/ST o3.0 sacks (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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