NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Jets vs. Bears
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
New York Jets DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | NYJ | $4,900 | $6,200 | 15.12 | QB27 | 30.61 | 220.71 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | $5,400 | $6,200 | 12.69 | RB26 | 38.40% | 11.40% |
| James Robinson | NYJ | $5,200 | $6,200 | 8.63 | RB38 | 37.84% | 3.09% |
| Ty Johnson | NYJ | $4,100 | $4,900 | 3.78 | RB61 | 10.26% | 4.34% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | $4,300 | $6,000 | 13.01 | WR28 | 24.20% | 7.41 |
| Corey Davis | NYJ | $4,200 | $5,500 | 9.65 | WR50 | 17.27% | 5.29 |
| Denzel Mims | NYJ | $3,100 | $5,200 | 1.38 | WR118 | 2.76% | 0.84 |
| Elijah Moore | NYJ | $3,500 | $5,300 | 5.95 | WR81 | 10.17% | 3.11 |
| Braxton Berrios | NYJ | $3,000 | $4,800 | 0.93 | WR127 | 1.91% | 0.58 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | $3,100 | $4,800 | 8.33 | TE16 | 16.68% | 5.11 |
| C.J. Uzomah | NYJ | $2,500 | $4,300 | 3.67 | TE42 | 6.71% | 2.05 |
Chicago Bears Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | CHI | $7,400 | $8,500 | 19.14 | QB9 | 26.43 | 179.96 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| David Montgomery | CHI | $6,400 | $7,500 | 14.31 | RB25 | 55% | 10% |
| Trestan Ebner | CHI | $4,300 | $4,900 | 4.02 | RB57 | 16% | 6% |
| Darrynton Evans | CHI | $4,000 | $4,500 | 0.18 | RB100 | 0% | 0% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | $5,100 | $6,100 | 11.21 | WR37 | 26% | 6.98 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | CHI | $3,200 | $5,000 | 4.43 | WR96 | 11% | 2.96 |
| Chase Claypool | CHI | $3,900 | $5,500 | 7.41 | WR66 | 17% | 4.58 |
| Dante Pettis | CHI | $3,000 | $4,800 | 2.17 | WR111 | 5% | 1.41 |
| Byron Pringle | CHI | $3,000 | $4,700 | 1.16 | WR122 | 3% | 0.67 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | $3,900 | $5,300 | 8.21 | TE17 | 19% | 4.97 |
| Trevon Wesco | CHI | $2,500 | $4,200 | 0.75 | TE76 | 2% | 0.50 |
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
– There’s a little bit of injury and a little bit of drama to unpack here.
– Justin Fields has a separation in his non-throwing shoulder. Considering that he isn’t a conventional pocket passer, nor does he have an offensive line that resembles anything NFL-caliber, it’s very difficult to just dial him in against a defense that ranks 6th in DVOA. That said, his wheels are fine, and he can run all over anyone. So you’re totally allowed to play him with Cole Kmet, who’s seen five red zone targets in the last four games.
– As for the drama, Zach Wilson (bad) is out this week and Mike White is in. The Jets have promising downfield talent, but White is a checkdown machine. We should really only like Garrett Wilson and Michael Carter in this passing game, as they work the shorter field; and, yeah, CHI is 30th in pass defense DVOA.
– There isn’t much else to say about this game. The NYJ D/ST is in an excellent spot, but they’re pricey. Overall, though, this game is 38.5 points of nonsense. Really only looking to stack some short receptions on DK with Wilson and Carter.
– Beware with Carter, though. He and James Robinson are in a full-blown timeshare.
Strong Projections: Jets D/ST
Strong Stack Options: Michael Carter + Jets D/ST
Strong GPP Differentiators: None
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Garrett Wilson
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Jets D/ST o3.0 sacks (PrizePicks)
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