NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Lions vs. Bills
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Detroit Lions DFS Breakdown
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||$6,600||$7,600||19.78||WR5||29.84%||10.41|
Buffalo Bills Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— First of all, Happy Thanksgiving everyone! It is a time for family, it is a time for friends, it is a time for turkey, and it is a time for football. We kick off the Turkey Day slate with the Bills and Lions. In case you weren’t aware, the Bills played in Detroit last week due to the immense snowfall in Buffalo. Even though they were technically the home team against the Browns, they used the visiting team’s locker room and now get to do it all over again. The Bills are in a battle for the AFC East title, while the Lions have won three games in a row and are inching closer to playoff contention. This game features a 9.5-point spread and a massive 54-point total.
— Jared Goff may not have slate-breaking upside, but there’s certainly a path for him to be featured on the optimal lineup on Thanksgiving. As long as the expensive quarterbacks don’t put up 30+ fantasy points, Goff could score 20 fantasy points and provide a ton of value and roster differentiation to lineups. He has some of the most drastic home/road splits of any quarterback this season, averaging 23 fantasy points at home and only 10 fantasy points on the road. The Bills are a difficult matchup on paper, but will be without quite a few key pieces defensively — Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White, and likely Tremaine Edmunds.
— Amon-Ra St. Brown has some serious touchdown regression coming his way the rest of the season. After lighting the world on fire at the end of last season, he continues to run poorly when it comes to scoring touchdowns. It seems like he gets tackled at the one or two-yard line every single week. Over the last two games, he has caught 17-of-19 targets for 195 yards. The Lions have also given him two rushing attempts. They are force-feeding him the ball and we should always be willing to bet on volume and talent. DJ Chark returned to the lineup last week, but only played on 16% of the snaps. Josh Reynolds has missed the last few games and is questionable once again. There’s a good chance Kalif Raymond ends up running the second most routes this week, but will likely need a touchdown to make a difference. With T.J. Hockenson now with the Vikings, there is all the more reason to load up on St. Brown. As far as Detroit’s tight ends, we can expect a timeshare between Brock Wright and James Mitchell. Wright should run more routes and is the preferred punt between the two.
— Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I repeat, Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Even though D’Andre Swift has played in the last three games, Williams has been the feature back in this offense. During that stretch, he has played on 50% of the snaps while averaging 19 touches per game. If the Lions get anywhere near the goal-line, we should have a good idea where the ball is going. As for Swift, he’s an extremely tough sell at the moment. He could always break off a big play or score a couple of touchdowns, but relying on extreme efficiency is tough at running back. To make matters worse for Swift, Justin Jackson has carved out a significant role in the backfield.
— In the early days of DFS, many would be hesitant to go back to Josh Allen after he put up 13 fantasy points as the highest-owned quarterback the previous week. I have a feeling that won’t be the case this week. Even with the elbow injury, he’s one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league and he’s facing the Lions in a dome on a three-game slate. If he has a ceiling game, you will absolutely need him in your cash game and tournament lineups. We know what Allen brings to the table and no team has allowed more fantasy points to his position than the Lions this season.
— Both of Allen’s star wideouts are viable this week against the Lions. Stefon Diggs has caught a touchdown and/or topped 100 yards in seven of 10 games this season and has one of the highest target shares in the league. Davis is more of a boom-or-bust deep threat, but it’s worth noting that he has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games. Diggs is the better play overall, but he’s also much more expensive. Davis is a cheaper way to get exposure to this passing attack. The other option is to target Dawson Knox at tight end. The Lions don’t defend the tight end position well and Knox has seen 17 targets over the last three games. I don’t mind a sprinkle on Knox to score the first touchdown in this game.
— The Bills drafted James Cook and traded for Nyheim Hines, but Devin Singletary continues to lead the backfield in snaps and touches. Honestly, if you take out the name and look strictly at the snap share and touch share in this backfield, you might call Singletary a feature back. He’s played on at least 70% of the snaps in five straight games and seems to be getting more work down near the goal-line. Perhaps this is fluky or perhaps it has something to do with Allen’s elbow injury. Regardless, you can use Singletary as a leverage play off of Allen or you can pair Singletary with Allen in hopes of securing all of the touchdowns from the Bills.
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards (PrizePicks)