NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Packers vs. Eagles
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Philadelphia Eagles DFS Breakdown
Green Bay Packers Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— The Eagles are favored by nearly a touchdown at home over the Packers on Sunday night. Philly has looked a little vulnerable of late, while Green Bay can’t seem to get it together. Jalen Hurts can play relatively poorly and still come out with a respectable fantasy score, which tells you how valuable running QBs can be from a DFS perspective. He leads all quarterbacks with 8 rushing scores on the year, and Green Bay ranks a dismal 29th in DVOA vs. the run. Philadelphia should be able to do whatever they want on the ground in this one. Hurts looks like the no-brainer top play out of the captain slot on the showdown slate, but slotting Miles Sanders in there could help you get a bit different in GPPs. Hurts hurts (pun VERY intended) Sanders’ TD equity in goal-line situations, however. Boston Scott gets enough work to be worth a plunge at $2,600 in DK GPPs.
— AJ Brown (29%) and Devonta Smith (25%) dominate the targets for the Eagles, while Quez Watkins will attract the occasional deep shot. Watkins is the kind of random deep threat that can break a showdown slate by himself. Brown has scored twice as many touchdowns as Smith has so far this season, but the gap between them really isn’t as wide as their salaries indicate. Captaining Smith and hoping he finds paydirt is another intriguing tournament approach. Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra may get more looks at tight end with Dallas Goedert sidelined, and they’re cheap enough to help you afford some of the more expensive good stuff on DraftKings.
— Aaron Rodgers has looked a little better of late, but the Packers still aren’t doing much winning these days. Philly has excelled defensively against the pass (3rd in DVOA), however. Allen Lazard (18%) leads the Packers’ receivers in target share, but Christian Watson has come on in a big way of late, especially in scoring situations. Watson feels like a bit of a chase after scoring 5 times in the last 2 games, but it makes sense that they’d want to continue to get him more involved. Randall Cobb is still getting targets at the tender age of 64, and you can argue he’s a useful value on DK ($5,200). Robert Tonyan hasn’t done much of anything in over a month, but he is getting cheaper and cheaper.
— Aaron Jones is on the right side of the carries and catches split with AJ Dillon these days. Dillon’s lack of involvement gives him a very low floor, while Jones has established himself as a reliable spend on a weekly basis. The Eagles are just 26th in DVOA against the run, so maybe Green Bay’s ground game can get something going.
Strong Stack Options: Rodgers + Watson, Rodgers + Jones, Hurts + Brown/Smith
Favorite Prop Site Bet: Jalen Hurts u230.5 Passing Yards (PrizePicks)