NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Panthers vs. Broncos

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Carolina Panthers DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Sam Darnold CAR $4,900 $6,400 12.58 QB32 30.65 179.00
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
D’Onta Foreman CAR $5,500 $6,700 11.49 RB29 53.06% 8.00%
Chuba Hubbard CAR $4,700 $5,300 6.18 RB47 19.08% 7.84%
Raheem Blackshear CAR $4,200 $4,700 2.64 RB71 9.22% 2.56%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
D.J. Moore CAR $5,000 $6,200 11.94 WR34 27.08% 8.30
Terrace Marshall CAR $3,900 $5,700 7.33 WR68 16.88% 5.17
Shi Smith CAR $3,000 $5,000 4.56 WR93 10.45% 3.20
Laviska Shenault CAR $3,300 $5,300 5.45 WR82 12.31% 3.77
#N/A CAR #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Ian Thomas CAR $2,500 $4,500 3.72 TE39 8.09% 2.48
Tommy Tremble CAR $2,600 $4,500 2.51 TE51 6.19% 1.90

Denver Broncos Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Russell Wilson DEN $5,400 $6,700 15 QB28 31.32 218.92
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Latavius Murray DEN $5,000 $6,200 15.12 RB21 56% 14%
Marlon Mack DEN $4,000 $4,500 4.5 RB55 19% 4%
Devine Ozigbo DEN $4,000 $4,500 3.15 RB68 13% 4%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Courtland Sutton DEN $5,600 $7,100 13.88 WR25 26% 8.08
Kendall Hinton DEN $3,700 $5,400 8.19 WR57 13% 4.12
Brandon Johnson DEN $3,000 $4,600 3.58 WR100 10% 3.03
Jalen Virgil DEN $3,000 $4,700 2.07 WR113 4% 1.22
Montrell Washington DEN $3,000 $4,600 1.02 WR123 2% 0.74
Greg Dulcich DEN $3,700 $5,300 10.24 TE7 19% 5.94
Eric Saubert DEN $2,500 $4,400 1.82 TE61 4% 1.21
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

– 36.5 total…

DEN might be a funnel defense. They’re 4th against the pass in DVOA and 18th against the run, D’Onta Foreman is in play at good prices. Since the Christian McCaffrey trade, he’s been up and down, but he’s had 17, 28, 10, 32, and 12 opportunities. If the lower-usage games scare you, I beg to re-think your tournament strategy. If he were averaging 20 each game with lower variance, he’d have a lower ceiling. With a legit ceiling north of 25 opportunities, he’s way too cheap to ignore.

Baker Mayfield has 285 total air yards in his 59 dropbacks the last two games. He’s not getting the ball downfield. Sam Darnold isn’t steppin’ up to start chuckin’, so D.J. Moore is only really useful on DK where we get the full PPR. If anything, the checkdown nature of the Panthers game just elevates Foreman.

CAR is a not-terrible defense, which is relevant because Russell Wilson has looked like a terrible QB. But Wilson isn’t completely useless. His 9.07 aDOT opens a window to play Courtland Sutton – who’s averaging over 95 air yards per game. Sutton is pretty good and he’s cheap. A good, cheap one-off.

– The CAR D/ST with Foreman is one of my favorite stacks. They’re mid-priced and could see some ownership on DK, but this is where the Foreman combo pays us back…. No one’s gonna play Foreman.

— With no more Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray can be amazing or he can suck, but he’s cheap, so maybe we just need him to be there.

Strong Projections: D’Onta Foreman, Latavius Murray, Courtland Sutton, Panthers D/ST

Strong Stack Options: D’Onta Foreman + Panthers D/ST

Strong GPP Differentiators: D’Onta Foreman

Roster Construction Punts/Values: D’Onta Foreman, Latavius Murray, Courtland Sutton

Favorite Prop Site Bet: Russell Wilson u219.5 passing yards

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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