NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Raiders vs. Seahawks

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.

Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game

Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
All Best Bets for PrizePicks:
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.

Sports Betting Lines and Overview

Seattle Seahawks DFS Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Geno Smith SEA $6,000 $7,600 18.61 QB12 31.24 233.04
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
“(player-popup #kenneth-walker-iii)Kenneth Walker III SEA $6,900 $8,400 18.5 RB6 76.80% 8.83%
Travis Homer SEA $4,600 $4,700 3.76 RB64 7.92% 3.96%
DeeJay Dallas SEA $4,000 $4,600 0.63 RB85 1.04% 0.89%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
D.K. Metcalf SEA $6,500 $7,400 14.48 WR19 24.33% 7.60
Tyler Lockett SEA $6,200 $7,500 15.81 WR12 23.74% 7.42
Marquise Goodwin SEA $3,500 $5,400 4.48 WR90 7.07% 2.21
D’Wayne Eskridge SEA $3,000 $4,700 1.62 WR117 3.60% 1.12
Penny Hart SEA $3,000 $4,600 0.42 WR141 0.86% 0.27
Noah Fant SEA $3,200 $5,100 7.29 TE21 12.91% 4.03
Will Dissly SEA $2,900 $4,600 6 TE27 9.61% 3.00

Las Vegas Raiders Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

QB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjAtt ProjYds
Derek Carr LVR $5,700 $7,300 17.56 QB14 33.85 255.90
RB Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjRu% ProjTar%
Josh Jacobs LVR $7,700 $8,700 21.73 RB2 77% 11%
Ameer Abdullah LVR $4,600 $4,700 6.03 RB51 10% 8%
Brandon Bolden LVR $4,000 $4,600 2.78 RB72 5% 3%
WR/TE Team DKSal FDSal Proj Rank ProjTar% ProjTar
Davante Adams LVR $8,600 $9,000 22.4 WR2 34% 11.61
Mack Hollins LVR $4,400 $5,600 10.02 WR49 18% 5.95
Keelan Cole LVR $3,000 $4,700 4.79 WR86 9% 3.06
DJ Turner LVR $3,000 $4,500 1.33 WR121 1% 0.40
#N/A LVR #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Foster Moreau LVR $3,400 $5,400 8.34 TE13 12% 4.05
Jesper Horsted LVR $2,500 $4,200 1.96 TE58 3% 1.11
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis

— Raiders-Seahawks is expected to be one of the higher-scoring games of Week 12, as evidenced by the 47.5 over/under. That’s the third-highest mark of the weekend, and the Seahawks are favored by a little more than a field goal at home.

— This is an elite matchup for Seattle, as Vegas ranks dead-last in the league so far this season in overall DVOA. They’re also 32nd against the pass, which should be music to the ears of Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Smith is still underpriced on DraftKings ($6,000), but we’re never really hurting for viable cheap QBs in tournaments. There’s never much to separate Metcalf and Lockett. Metcalf (25%) has a slightly higher target share than his counterpart (23%), so that’s not the worst tiebreaker. Getting to both with Geno is clearly the best way to stack the passing attack. Noah Fant has separated himself a bit from Will Dissly, but there are better ways to go at tight end.

— The lead story here is Kenneth Walker, who’s been taking 72% of Seattle’s carries alongside a solid 11% target share since Rashaad Penny went down for the year. You can run on the Raiders (22nd in DVOA vs. the run), and Walker offers a decent discount from the other high-end RBs. Fire him up in all formats this week.

— The Seahawks, conversely, are more middle of the pack defensively so far this season. This is far from a perfect spot for the Vegas offense, especially leaving the dome. Derek Carr hasn’t played particularly well, but the Raiders have taken to the air on better than 63% of their offensive snaps. If you want to get to Davante Adams (32% targets) in GPPs, pairing him with Carr makes plenty of sense. Mack Hollins has been underwhelming since taking over as the team’s WR2 in place of the injured Hunter Renfrow. I’d rather save money with Foster Moreau at tight end, especially given the dearth of options at the position.

Josh Jacobs has been a bright spot for this offense, taking a whopping 83% of the carries out of the backfield. He projects as one of the better spends at running back on a weekly basis, and nothing about this matchup is scaring me away, especially in tournaments. Jacobs also has at least 3 targets in every game since Week 3, which helps his floor on a site like DK.

Strong Projections: Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, Davante Adams

Strong Stack Options: Smith + Metcalf/Lockett, Carr + Adams, Carr + Adams/Moreau

Strong GPP Differentiators: Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf

Roster Construction Punts/Values: Foster Moreau, Noah Fant

Favorite Prop Site Bet: DK Metcalf o63.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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