NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 12: The Grind Down - Raiders vs. Seahawks
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is a FAST and EFFICIENT preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS AND DFS Prop Site mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS and Prop cheat sheet of props to bet, stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
Weekly Premium DFS Resources for This Game
Your Premium Tool Access: Use These in Combination With The Grind Down
LineupHQ: Lineup optimizer with integrated tools.
Projected Ownership: Expected draft percentage for each player.
All Best Bets for Underdog: For every player, game, and team.
Expert Rankings: Consensus best plays.
Top Stacks: based on our simulations.
Sports Betting Lines and Overview
Seattle Seahawks DFS Breakdown
|“(player-popup #kenneth-walker-iii)Kenneth Walker III||SEA||$6,900||$8,400||18.5||RB6||76.80%||8.83%|
Las Vegas Raiders Projections Breakdown
NFL DFS and Prop Site Analysis
— Raiders-Seahawks is expected to be one of the higher-scoring games of Week 12, as evidenced by the 47.5 over/under. That’s the third-highest mark of the weekend, and the Seahawks are favored by a little more than a field goal at home.
— This is an elite matchup for Seattle, as Vegas ranks dead-last in the league so far this season in overall DVOA. They’re also 32nd against the pass, which should be music to the ears of Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Smith is still underpriced on DraftKings ($6,000), but we’re never really hurting for viable cheap QBs in tournaments. There’s never much to separate Metcalf and Lockett. Metcalf (25%) has a slightly higher target share than his counterpart (23%), so that’s not the worst tiebreaker. Getting to both with Geno is clearly the best way to stack the passing attack. Noah Fant has separated himself a bit from Will Dissly, but there are better ways to go at tight end.
— The lead story here is Kenneth Walker, who’s been taking 72% of Seattle’s carries alongside a solid 11% target share since Rashaad Penny went down for the year. You can run on the Raiders (22nd in DVOA vs. the run), and Walker offers a decent discount from the other high-end RBs. Fire him up in all formats this week.
— The Seahawks, conversely, are more middle of the pack defensively so far this season. This is far from a perfect spot for the Vegas offense, especially leaving the dome. Derek Carr hasn’t played particularly well, but the Raiders have taken to the air on better than 63% of their offensive snaps. If you want to get to Davante Adams (32% targets) in GPPs, pairing him with Carr makes plenty of sense. Mack Hollins has been underwhelming since taking over as the team’s WR2 in place of the injured Hunter Renfrow. I’d rather save money with Foster Moreau at tight end, especially given the dearth of options at the position.
— Josh Jacobs has been a bright spot for this offense, taking a whopping 83% of the carries out of the backfield. He projects as one of the better spends at running back on a weekly basis, and nothing about this matchup is scaring me away, especially in tournaments. Jacobs also has at least 3 targets in every game since Week 3, which helps his floor on a site like DK.
Strong Stack Options: Smith + Metcalf/Lockett, Carr + Adams, Carr + Adams/Moreau
Favorite Prop Site Bet: DK Metcalf o63.5 Receiving Yards (PrizePicks)